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Research: Consumer
Britvic (BVIC) has successfully managed two potential threats – the Soft Drinks Levy (SDIL) and the industry CO2 shortage – to confirm modest earnings growth prospects for FY18. The recent heatwave might otherwise have driven outperformance. But with redirected marketing driving double-digit stills growth, the position was held. Looking forward, as BVIC’s business capability programme completes and benefits start to flow, more meaningful earnings growth may narrow the discount to peers.
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1 August 2018 |
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Britvic (BVIC) has successfully managed two potential threats – the Soft Drinks Levy (SDIL) and the industry CO2 shortage – to confirm modest earnings growth prospects for FY18. The recent heatwave might otherwise have driven outperformance. But with redirected marketing driving double-digit stills growth, the position was held. Looking forward, as BVIC’s business capability programme completes and benefits start to flow, more meaningful earnings growth may narrow the discount to peers.
Resilient performance in Q3
Three factors complicated Q3: the SDIL (from April), CO2 shortages and the heatwave. BVIC managed these resiliently, with Q3 total revenue growth of 3.4%, taking the year to date to 4.2% (H1: 4.5%). On an ex-SDIL basis Q3 declined 0.6%. That was led by GB sales +1.9% with outstanding stills growth of 11.7%, where, responding to the CO2 issue, marketing was switched from carbonates, -2.9%. Regions mainly grew strongly: Ireland +6.6% ex-SDIL, Brazil +10.2%, international (mainly US) +8.7%. France declined 15.0%, on strong comps and poor weather.
Market share growth in major brands
Within carbonates, Pepsi continued to gain share, led by the no-sugar Pepsi Max. Meanwhile, buoyed by the marketing switch, stills showed strong growth for both Robinsons, which has been re-establishing share, and J2O. A range of H2 activation actions, highlighted at interim, are being executed effectively in wider regions. Management, which has guided to a net zero profit effect from SDIL, should be able to give a clearer analysis of any net impact at the year end.
Modest growth expectations confirmed
BVIC guides to full-year performance in line with consensus. FY18 is a transition year for BVIC’s business capability programme (FY16-19), which should deliver long-term benefits including supply efficiencies. A 3.4% yield is twice covered and supported by net debt leverage guided at 2.1–2.3x.
Valuation: FY19e growth may compress discount
BVIC trades at a FY18e P/E of 14.9x, a 31.8% discount to the All-Share Beverages current year index and a 28.8% discount to AG Barr, reflecting its relatively geared balance sheet and relatively slow near-term earnings growth. However, with FY18 now effectively confirmed, market attention should switch to the higher-growth FY19 forecast (PBT +10.7%, EPS +6.3%), which could see those discounts narrow.
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Consensus estimates
Source: Britvic, Bloomberg. Note: *Adjusted. |
Britvic is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Vermilion Energy (VET) reported Q2 fund flows from operations (FFO) of C$193m, in line with consensus estimates and a 23% increase q-o-q. The acquisition of Spartan drove a 15% q-o-q increase in production to 80.6kboed, c 1% ahead of consensus, which includes volumes from Spartan after close of the C$1.4bn acquisition on 28 May 2018. We increase our expectations for FY18 FFO from C$887m to C$946m (+7%) and FY19 FFO from C$1,104m to C$1,208m (+9%), reflecting higher oil price expectations for H218 and 2019. We use EIA short-term WTI price projections of US$66/bbl in 2018 and US$62/bbl in 2019. Our valuation increases from C$53.8/share to C$57.9/share as a result.