Britvic — Strong Christmas trading boosts Q124

Britvic (LSE: BVIC)

Last close As at 27/02/2024

GBP8.67

−1.50 (−0.17%)

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Research: Consumer

Britvic — Strong Christmas trading boosts Q124

Britvic delivered an encouraging start to FY24 with robust Q124 results that showed good revenue progression, reflecting the strength of its brand portfolio. Group revenue growth of 8.1% was driven by positive trends in both price and volumes and was broad-based across Britvic’s geographies, continuing the positive momentum from FY23. Particularly strong growth in Brazil reflects the success of the Extra Power acquisition. Britvic reported robust trading over the important Christmas period, with revenue growth of 12.1% and volumes up 6.4% in December. The company continues to invest in its brands, including a refresh of Pepsi, and consequently is confident in achieving FY24 market expectations.

Written by

Milo Bussell

Associate Analyst, Consumer and Media

Britvic, Hemel Hempstead

Consumer

Britvic

Strong Christmas trading boosts Q124

Consumer

ADR QuickView

29 January 2024

Price

$22.11

Market cap

$2,809m

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Share details

Code

BVICY

Listing

OTC

Shares in issue

124.7m

Business description

Britvic is a soft-drink beverage company with headquarters in the UK. The company participates in the marketing and manufacturing of popular brands including PepsiCo in Great Britain and Ireland. Britvic also has operations in France, Brazil and selected other EU markets.

Bull

The soft drinks segment is relatively resilient.

The business continues to make progress against its strategic objectives, including sustainability-focused targets.

Market leadership status: number one in branded still soft drinks and number two in branded carbonated soft drinks in Great Britain, and number one in ready-to-drink juice in Brazil.

Bear

The outlook for consumer demand remains uncertain given the macroeconomic environment.

Some brands are part-owned by third parties.

Uncertainty about inflationary pressures in staff costs and inputs.

Analysts

Milo Bussell

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Britvic delivered an encouraging start to FY24 with robust Q124 results that showed good revenue progression, reflecting the strength of its brand portfolio. Group revenue growth of 8.1% was driven by positive trends in both price and volumes and was broad-based across Britvic’s geographies, continuing the positive momentum from FY23. Particularly strong growth in Brazil reflects the success of the Extra Power acquisition. Britvic reported robust trading over the important Christmas period, with revenue growth of 12.1% and volumes up 6.4% in December. The company continues to invest in its brands, including a refresh of Pepsi, and consequently is confident in achieving FY24 market expectations.

Q124 results: Positive sales momentum

Britvic delivered robust group revenue growth of 8.1% on a constant currency basis and 7.9% on a reported basis to £443.5m. The strong sales momentum was driven by both positive price and volume movements, as volumes grew 1.7% y-o-y. Growth was seen across all Britvic’s geographies. Great Britain delivered a 6.9% increase in revenue, with gains in both the retail and hospitality channels. Revenue from Brazil rose 21.0% as it benefited from the Extra Power acquisition, which completed in October 2023. Revenue from other international markets was up 6.0%, with Ireland demonstrating particularly strong growth of 12.5%. France reported more modest growth of 1.1% as a decline in volumes was offset by price/mix in what continues to be a challenging market.

Brand investment to drive sustainable growth

Britvic’s strategy of delivering long-term sustainable growth is underpinned by the continued investment in its brand portfolio to drive innovation and appeal for consumers. Management plans to refresh the Pepsi brand for the first time in 14 years, while other brand activations and innovative marketing campaigns should continue to build on its strong brand loyalty and awareness. The two acquisitions made in FY23, Jimmy’s Iced Coffee in Great Britain and Extra Power in Brazil, provide Britvic with further opportunities in fast-growth categories. This strategy underpins management’s confidence in achieving market expectations for FY24.

Valuation: Remains at a discount

Britvic trades on a consensus FY24e P/E multiple of 14.2x, a c 11% discount to the UK beverages sector (excluding Fevertree) and a c 15% discount to AG Barr, which reflects that some of its brands are part-owned by third parties and its more leveraged balance sheet.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(US$m)

PBT
(US$m)

EPS
(US$)

DPS
(US$)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/22

2,055.2

229.0

1.46

0.74

14.4

3.5

09/23

2,220.7

237.4

1.55

0.78

13.6

3.7

09/24e

2,367.3

247.9

1.58

0.80

13.3

3.8

09/25e

2,457,0

268.0

1.73

0.87

12.2

4.1

Source: Refinitiv (priced at 26 January 2024)

Britvic is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Britvic and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Britvic. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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London │ New York │ Frankfurt

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United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Britvic and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Britvic. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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