Shanks Group
Written by
Shanks Group |
Global commodity crisis offsetting progress |
Trading statement |
Industrial support services |
5 February 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next event
Analysts
Shanks Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The trading statement on 3 February highlighted further progress in the Commercial division. However, this was offset by impacts from the global commodity crisis, leaving results likely to be slightly below expectations, and we are lowering our 2016 EPS forecasts by 7%. With the disposal of the Wakefield assets the first stage in value realisation from the PFI portfolio and the shares drifting below our valuation range (unchanged at 106-130p/share), a yield over 4% should provide support before more tangible evidence from the cost management programmes shows in results.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/14 |
636.4 |
30.2 |
5.7 |
3.45 |
13.7 |
4.4 |
03/15 |
601.5 |
21.7 |
5.0 |
3.45 |
15.7 |
4.4 |
03/16e |
593.1 |
21.2 |
4.2 |
3.45 |
18.6 |
4.4 |
03/17e |
607.6 |
25.5 |
5.0 |
3.45 |
15.7 |
4.4 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Netherlands Commercial progress encouraging
Continuing the trend seen at the interim stage, Netherlands was again the star performer, with the self-help initiatives more than offsetting lower recyclate prices. However, the ongoing global commodity crisis had a number of direct and indirect impacts on the Hazardous Waste and Municipal divisions. Shanks has been affected in three main areas: lower waste oil prices, lower electricity generation receipts and lower recyclate prices as it sells by-products from recycling back into the market. While the recent volatility in commodity prices is outside its control, it again demonstrates the clear need for self-help programmes, leaving Shanks a more resilient business and better placed to benefit from an economic recovery.
Wakefield PFI asset disposal demonstrating value
With group debt levels around £200m, management had indicated previously that disposal of either single or portfolios of PFI assets was likely in the medium term. The £30m cash proceeds from the sale of Wakefield debt and equity releases value, while retaining a 49% interest and a 25-year operating contract. The PFI portfolio was previously valued at £115m and further divestments are likely to give more financial flexibility and redeploy capital to accelerate other growth opportunities.
Valuation: Self-help recovery generally intact
Despite the global commodity crisis taking the gloss off 2016 results (we are trimming our 2016/17 earnings estimates), we are generally encouraged by the progress of the underlying business. With the major investment in the Municipal division nearing completion (Derby and Surrey, Canada to complete in 2016/17e), we remain confident of a recovery in profits and returns underpinned by the ongoing cost management initiatives. The recent share price weakness caused by nervousness over commodity and recyclate prices leaves the shares at a discount to our valuation range (currently unchanged at 106-130p/share) and supported by a yield of over 4%.
Trading statement – February 2016
A strong performance from the Commercial division has not fully compensated for the more challenging conditions caused by the global commodity crisis and affecting the hazardous waste and municipal markets. Results for FY16 are therefore likely to be slightly below our expectations and those of the market, although the group remains well positioned to show strong growth helped by new capacity, margin improvement and cost management initiatives.
Divisional commentary
Commercial Waste
Driven by self-help initiatives, the Commercial division has continued to deliver strong profits growth. Helped by stronger construction volumes in the Netherlands and good cost control, this has been the main driver, although the turnaround here is gaining traction after recent actions in Belgium.
Hazardous Waste
With c 50% of its revenues exposed to oil and gas, strong performance by the soil and ship treatment businesses were not sufficient to fully offset the impact of lower oil prices on both industrial sludge volumes and industrial cleaning. Despite these short-term issues, the division has continued to invest in new capacity and is still expected to show growth in the current year.
Municipal
The impact of lower recyclate pricing and weaker offtake markets has affected all recyclers, including the Municipal division. New capacity is now in service at BDR and Wakefield. However, despite the continuous improvement programmes, the division has not been able to fully compensate for the market headwinds and is expected to show a modest decline in profits. With Derby and Surrey (Canada) nearing completion, management remains confident that the long-term business model remains robust and is expected to deliver strong profits and cash generation.
Financials
Core net debt was in line with our forecast at £201m at 31 December 2015, with the major investment programmes near completion. Following the disposal of the Wakefield PFI assets for a gross consideration of £30m, year-end net debt is now expected to be approximately £196m. The board reiterated that the transaction is consistent with the strategy of actively managing the portfolio of assets. It provides flexibility and enhances the group’s ability to redeploy capital for accretive acquisitions or investments, where accelerated growth and returns can be delivered. As such, further disposals are possible, including the PFI portfolio as a whole or packages of individual debt/equity.
Revised forecasts
Following February’s trading statement, we have revised our forecasts to reflect management comments and the impact of the global commodity crisis on the group. Performance in the Commercial division remains robust, but we have modestly reduced assumptions for Hazardous Waste and Municipal to reflect the impact of lower oil and recyclate prices. Comments for the next year remain encouraging, as the company expects a robust performance to more fully reflect the benefit from the ongoing self-help actions and new capacity coming on stream. The main change is the removal of the partial profit contribution of £1.5m following the Wakefield PFI asset disposal.
Exhibit 1: Updated PBT and earnings estimates
EPS (p) |
Clean PBT (£m) |
|||||
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
|
2016e |
4.5 |
4.2 |
(7) |
22.7 |
21.2 |
(7) |
2017e |
5.3 |
5.0 |
(6) |
27.0 |
25.5 |
(6) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Shanks divisional breakdown and revised 2016/17 forecasts (£m)
H115 |
H215 |
FY15 |
H116 |
H216e |
FY16e |
FY17e |
|
Revenue |
|||||||
Commercial |
159.2 |
154.9 |
314.1 |
145.5 |
152.4 |
297.9 |
306.8 |
Hazardous Waste |
69.2 |
68.8 |
138 |
64.4 |
66.1 |
130.5 |
132.5 |
Municipal |
81 |
76.7 |
157.7 |
90.2 |
82.9 |
173.1 |
176.7 |
Intra segment revenue |
-4.6 |
-3.8 |
-8.4 |
-3.1 |
-5.4 |
-8.5 |
-8.4 |
Total revenue |
304.8 |
296.6 |
601.5 |
297 |
296.1 |
593.1 |
607.6 |
Trading profit |
|
|
|||||
Commercial |
7.2 |
6 |
13.2 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
16.0 |
17.5 |
Hazardous Waste |
8 |
8.4 |
16.4 |
7.3 |
7.7 |
15.0 |
17.1 |
Municipal |
5.7 |
6.4 |
12.1 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
10.9 |
12.7 |
Intra segment revenue |
-2.8 |
-4.6 |
-7.4 |
-3.2 |
-4.1 |
-7.3 |
-7.4 |
Total Trading profit |
18.1 |
16.2 |
34.3 |
17.4 |
17.2 |
34.6 |
39.9 |
Interest |
-7.2 |
-6.2 |
-13.4 |
-7.1 |
-7.4 |
-14.5 |
-15.4 |
Associate |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Profit Before Tax |
11.2 |
10.5 |
21.7 |
10.7 |
10.5 |
21.2 |
25.5 |
Source: Edison Investment Research