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Research: TMT
TXT reported a strong performance in Q120, with 37% revenue growth and 52% EBITDA growth year-on-year. Despite COVID-19 disruption, the company signed several material contracts post quarter-end and acquired a start-up business focusing on supply chain finance software. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the stronger than expected outturn in Q1. The company is trading at a discount to peers on EV multiples despite its growth and profitability profile.
TXT e-solutions |
Partnering strategy pays off |
Q120 results |
Software & comp services |
20 May 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
TXT e-solutions is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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TXT reported a strong performance in Q120, with 37% revenue growth and 52% EBITDA growth year-on-year. Despite COVID-19 disruption, the company signed several material contracts post quarter-end and acquired a start-up business focusing on supply chain finance software. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the stronger than expected outturn in Q1. The company is trading at a discount to peers on EV multiples despite its growth and profitability profile.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
40.0 |
1.5 |
0.10 |
0.50 |
75.6 |
6.5 |
12/19 |
59.1 |
7.6 |
0.46 |
0.00 |
17.0 |
0.0 |
12/20e |
64.4 |
4.7 |
0.26 |
0.10 |
29.6 |
1.3 |
12/21e |
68.0 |
6.5 |
0.37 |
0.12 |
20.9 |
1.5 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Strong performance in Q120
TXT reported revenue growth of 37% y-o-y for Q120, with growth of 19% in the Aerospace & Aviation (A&A) division (all organic) and growth of 90% for the Fintech division. The contribution from Assioma was not separately disclosed, but we estimate that the underlying fintech business was flat y-o-y. EBITDA of €2m was 52% higher y-o-y, with a margin of 12.1% compared to 10.9% in Q119. The company was able to shift to remote working when COVID-19 restrictions started and has not seen any material disruption to projects on which it is working, despite its customer base including airlines and OEMs in the civil aerospace market. In fact, post quarter end, the company signed several multi-year contracts, including one in the defence market and another with an Italian bank.
Digital transformation partner
TXT’s role as a strategic partner for customers’ digital transformation journeys means that it typically works on long-term projects for the development of new products or services. So far, the company has not seen a material effect on existing or new business from COVID-19. While in the medium term, demand from civil aviation and automotive customers is likely to be weaker, other segments such as defence and digital industry could compensate, and TXT is focusing on developing expertise in areas such as artificial intelligence, remote training & support and cybersecurity. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the better than expected Q1 revenue and EBITDA. This results in a 2% increase in our FY20 revenue forecast, and an increase in our EBITDA forecasts of 16% in FY20 and 6% in FY21.
Valuation: Discount to peers
TXT continues to trade at a large discount to its peer group on an EV/Sales and EV/EBIT basis, with revenue growth at the top end of the group and margins in line with peer group averages. P/E multiples continue to be inflated versus peers due to the €42m of net cash on the balance sheet. We expect the company will continue to seek earnings-enhancing acquisitions.
Review of Q120 results
Exhibit 1: Q120 results highlights
€m |
Q120 |
Q119 |
y-o-y |
Revenues |
16.3 |
11.9 |
36.8% |
Licences & maintenance |
2.3 |
1.5 |
50.2% |
Services |
14.0 |
10.4 |
34.8% |
Gross profit |
7.3 |
5.2 |
39.5% |
Gross margin |
44.7% |
43.9% |
0.9% |
EBITDA |
2.0 |
1.3 |
52.1% |
EBITDA margin |
12.1% |
10.9% |
1.2% |
Normalised EBIT |
1.5 |
1.0 |
58.5% |
Normalised EBIT margin |
9.4% |
8.1% |
1.3% |
Reported EBIT |
1.2 |
0.7 |
61.0% |
Reported EBIT margin |
7.2% |
6.1% |
1.1% |
Reported net income |
0.3 |
1.4 |
(82.3%) |
Net cash |
42.1 |
61.1 |
(31.1%) |
Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research
TXT reported strong growth in revenues in Q120 of 36.8% y-o-y. Note that the Assioma acquisition completed on 1 May 2019 so only a proportion of this growth was organic (see below for further divisional analysis). Both software and services showed material growth, at 50% and 35% respectively. The gross margin increased by 0.9pp due to the higher proportion of high-margin software in the mix, and despite a higher cost base, EBITDA was 52% higher y-o-y with a margin of 12.1%. Normalised EBIT (excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles) was 59% higher y-o-y with a margin of 9.4%.
The company holds a large proportion of its cash in multi-segment insurance funds (€87m at the end of Q1) which are marked to market. Due to the market turmoil prompted by COVID-19, these funds reduced in value by €0.7m over the quarter; the company noted that the decline had reduced to €0.3m by the middle of April.
Divisional performance
Exhibit 2: Divisional revenue performance
Revenues (€m) |
Q120 |
Q119 |
y-o-y |
Aerospace & Aviation (A&A) |
10.5 |
8.9 |
18.8% |
Software licences & maintenance |
2.0 |
1.3 |
52.5% |
Services |
8.5 |
7.6 |
13.1% |
Fintech |
5.7 |
3.0 |
89.6% |
Software licences & maintenance |
0.3 |
0.2 |
36.9% |
Services |
5.4 |
2.8 |
93.7% |
Group software licences & maintenance |
2.3 |
1.5 |
50.2% |
Group services |
14.0 |
10.4 |
34.8% |
Source: TXT e-solutions
Aerospace & Aviation – strong organic growth
Divisional revenues grew 18.8% y-o-y (all organic), with 52.5% growth in software revenues and 13.1% growth in services revenues. The company worked on recurring projects in the defence sector, and multi-year software licences signed by North American OEMs and airlines at the end of 2019 contributed to revenues in the quarter.
Since the end of the quarter, the division has signed new contracts in the aeronautical defence sector in Italy and Germany worth c €1.5m this year. In consortium with several market-leading industrial companies, the division was awarded financed projects for artificial intelligence worth more than €1m over the next three years.
Fintech – still on the acquisition trail
Revenue growth of 90% was in part due to the inclusion of Assioma from Q219. We estimate that Assioma generates quarterly revenues in the range of €2.7–3.0m (all from services) – this implies relatively flat underlying performance for the division.
During April, the company signed a new multi-year contract with a leading Italian banking group for projects worth more than €5m over three years.
On 14 April, the division made a small acquisition of a supply chain finance start-up. The business was renamed TXT Working Capital Solutions. The company is working on releasing the first software solution from this business in June. TXT paid cash of €0.8m for a 60% stake and has a put/call option to buy the remainder of the business at a value dependent on its financial performance in FY24. We understand the business is currently loss-making and has not yet generated any revenues.
COVID-19 impact
The company managed to switch the majority of its staff to smart working and is continuing to support customers remotely. To differentiate its service and product offering in the current environment, the group is focusing development on areas such as artificial intelligence, social distancing, remote training and support, and cybersecurity.
The Q1 performance was not materially affected by the crisis, as can be seen by the organic growth of the A&A business. However, as this division sells to airlines (c 6% of group revenue) and also OEMs (aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers), in the medium term there could be some impact from reduced demand for civil aviation. Partially offsetting this, there should be support to revenues from new and ongoing contracts with defence aeronautics customers and multi-year software licences signed in 2019. As TXT works as a partner to companies with their digital activities, with a focus on projects for new product development which are often of multi-year duration, it is less exposed to short-term fluctuations in customers’ business activity.
The Fintech division is seeing the main players in the market continuing to invest in digital transformation. So far, the division’s growth targets and strategy have not been negatively affected by COVID-19.
Outlook and changes to estimates
We have revised our forecasts to reflect stronger than expected revenues and EBITDA in Q120. In March, we reduced our forecasts to reflect COVID-19 demand-related risk. Since then the company has seen no worsening in demand from customers that would lead us to cut revenue forecasts. Overall, we increase our FY20 revenue forecast by 2.4% and FY21 is substantially unchanged. We have revised our gross margin and cost forecasts based on those incurred in Q1. This results in a 15.5% increase in our FY20 EBITDA forecast and a 6.0% increase to our FY21 forecast. At the normalised EPS level, this increases FY20 by 46% and FY21 by 25%.
Exhibit 3: Changes to estimates
FY20e old |
FY20e new |
change |
y-o-y |
FY21e old |
FY21e new |
change |
y-o-y |
|
Revenues (€m) |
62.9 |
64.4 |
2.4% |
9.0% |
67.9 |
68.0 |
0.1% |
5.5% |
Gross margin |
44.3% |
44.7% |
0.4% |
(1.4%) |
45.2% |
46.6% |
1.4% |
1.9% |
Gross profit (€m) |
27.9 |
28.8 |
3.3% |
5.7% |
30.7 |
31.7 |
3.3% |
9.9% |
EBITDA (€m) |
5.6 |
6.5 |
15.5% |
(7.9%) |
7.5 |
8.0 |
6.0% |
23.5% |
EBITDA margin |
8.9% |
10.0% |
1.1% |
(1.8%) |
11.1% |
11.7% |
0.6% |
1.7% |
Normalised EBIT (€m) |
3.1 |
4.7 |
53.3% |
(13.4%) |
5.0 |
6.2 |
24.2% |
32.4% |
Normalised EBIT margin |
4.9% |
7.3% |
2.4% |
(1.9%) |
7.4% |
9.1% |
1.8% |
1.9% |
Normalised net income (€m) |
2.1 |
3.1 |
45.2% |
(42.5%) |
3.5 |
4.3 |
23.7% |
41.5% |
Normalised EPS (€) |
0.18 |
0.26 |
46.0% |
(42.5%) |
0.30 |
0.37 |
24.5% |
41.6% |
Reported basic EPS (€) |
0.12 |
0.19 |
54.6% |
597.7% |
0.24 |
0.30 |
23.6% |
58.3% |
Net cash (€m) |
43.8 |
42.5 |
(3.0%) |
2.5% |
47.1 |
46.0 |
(2.3%) |
8.4% |
Dividend (€) |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.0% |
N/A |
0.12 |
0.12 |
0.0% |
20.0% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation
TXT continues to trade at a large discount to its peer group on an EV/Sales and EV/EBIT basis, with revenue growth at the top end of the group and margins in line with peer group averages. P/E multiples continue to be inflated versus peers due to the €42m of net cash on the balance sheet. We expect the company will continue to look for earnings-enhancing acquisitions.
Exhibit 4: Peer valuation and financial metrics
Company |
Share price |
Market cap |
Rev growth |
EBIT margin |
EBITDA margin |
EV/Sales (x) |
EV/EBIT (x) |
P/E (x) |
Div yield |
|||||||
(m) |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
CY |
NY |
||
TXT |
€7.75 |
€91 |
9.0% |
5.5% |
7.3% |
9.1% |
10.0% |
11.7% |
0.8 |
0.7 |
10.5 |
8.0 |
29.6 |
20.9 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
European IT services companies |
||||||||||||||||
AKKA Technologies |
€23.65 |
€480 |
-1.3% |
7.0% |
5.1% |
6.8% |
9.2% |
10.8% |
0.4 |
0.4 |
7.7 |
5.5 |
10.9 |
6.8 |
1.3% |
2.3% |
Alten |
€69.20 |
€2,349 |
-6.1% |
5.8% |
7.2% |
9.1% |
8.6% |
10.3% |
1.0 |
0.9 |
13.9 |
10.3 |
20.9 |
14.3 |
1.3% |
1.2% |
AtoS |
€62.84 |
€6,855 |
-2.3% |
1.5% |
7.5% |
8.3% |
13.4% |
14.2% |
0.9 |
0.9 |
11.7 |
10.4 |
9.3 |
8.3 |
2.2% |
2.5% |
Cap Gemini |
€81.54 |
€13803 |
12.7% |
8.3% |
10.3% |
11.2% |
14.4% |
15.1% |
1.0 |
0.9 |
9.3 |
7.9 |
13.1 |
11.0 |
2.1% |
2.5% |
Devoteam |
€67.00 |
€558 |
-3.2% |
9.8% |
7.8% |
9.9% |
10.6% |
12.5% |
0.8 |
0.7 |
9.8 |
7.1 |
21.8 |
12.6 |
1.4% |
1.9% |
ESI Group |
€30.00 |
€178 |
40.1% |
7.2% |
4.5% |
6.5% |
10.7% |
10.9% |
1.6 |
1.5 |
34.9 |
22.7 |
47.4 |
30.2 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Exprivia |
€0.69 |
€36 |
-13.2% |
2.2% |
1.1% |
2.5% |
5.0% |
6.1% |
0.5 |
0.5 |
44.2 |
18.9 |
N/A |
N/A |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Reply |
€67.30 |
€2,515 |
4.0% |
8.6% |
12.1% |
12.9% |
15.1% |
15.7% |
2.0 |
1.8 |
16.2 |
14.0 |
23.7 |
20.7 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Sopra Steria |
€96.15 |
€1,973 |
-2.9% |
3.7% |
5.9% |
7.2% |
9.3% |
10.5% |
0.7 |
0.6 |
11.3 |
8.9 |
12.8 |
9.8 |
2.0% |
2.3% |
Average |
3.1% |
6.0% |
6.9% |
8.3% |
10.7% |
11.8% |
1.0 |
0.9 |
17.7 |
11.7 |
17.3 |
11.1 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
||
(Discount)/premium to peers |
(21%) |
(20%) |
(40%) |
(32%) |
71% |
88% |
6% |
2% |
||||||||
Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv (as at 18 May)
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
€'000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
33,060 |
35,852 |
39,957 |
59,091 |
64,426 |
67,998 |
Cost of sales |
(18,954) |
(20,224) |
(22,289) |
(31,825) |
(35,616) |
(36,328) |
||
Gross profit |
14,106 |
15,628 |
17,668 |
27,266 |
28,810 |
31,670 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
4,260 |
3,536 |
4,098 |
7,004 |
6,451 |
7,970 |
Operating Profit (before amort and except) |
|
|
3,954 |
3,180 |
2,755 |
5,408 |
4,683 |
6,202 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(264) |
(439) |
(610) |
(1,142) |
(1,224) |
(1,224) |
||
Exceptionals and other income |
(557) |
0 |
(300) |
(4,145) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other income |
0 |
(69) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
3,133 |
2,672 |
1,845 |
121 |
3,459 |
4,978 |
||
Net Interest |
48 |
(208) |
(1,284) |
2,194 |
0 |
250 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
4,002 |
2,972 |
1,471 |
7,602 |
4,683 |
6,452 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,181 |
2,464 |
561 |
2,315 |
3,459 |
5,228 |
Tax |
(661) |
(710) |
4 |
(1,867) |
(969) |
(1,464) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
3,170 |
2,170 |
1,204 |
5,473 |
3,372 |
4,645 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,520 |
1,754 |
565 |
448 |
2,491 |
3,764 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
||
EPS - normalised (€) |
|
|
0.271 |
0.186 |
0.102 |
0.456 |
0.262 |
0.371 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (€) |
|
|
0.271 |
0.186 |
0.102 |
0.456 |
0.262 |
0.371 |
EPS - (IFRS) (€) |
|
|
0.475 |
5.874 |
0.048 |
0.027 |
0.187 |
0.296 |
Dividend per share (€) |
0.30 |
1.00 |
0.50 |
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.12 |
||
Gross margin (%) |
42.7 |
43.6 |
44.2 |
46.1 |
44.7 |
46.6 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
12.9 |
9.9 |
10.3 |
11.9 |
10.0 |
11.7 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%) |
12.0 |
8.9 |
6.9 |
9.2 |
7.3 |
9.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
25,428 |
8,860 |
22,942 |
34,635 |
33,544 |
31,652 |
Intangible Assets |
21,296 |
7,332 |
17,751 |
24,380 |
23,957 |
22,733 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,598 |
793 |
3,680 |
7,929 |
7,261 |
6,593 |
||
Other |
2,534 |
735 |
1,511 |
2,326 |
2,326 |
2,326 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
37,085 |
109,426 |
134,674 |
127,052 |
123,149 |
120,029 |
Stocks |
3,146 |
2,528 |
3,141 |
4,156 |
4,456 |
4,756 |
||
Debtors |
26,369 |
17,215 |
16,992 |
24,150 |
27,398 |
28,917 |
||
Cash |
7,570 |
89,683 |
114,541 |
98,746 |
91,295 |
86,356 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(21,051) |
(13,612) |
(29,366) |
(43,129) |
(44,466) |
(45,361) |
Creditors |
(20,243) |
(12,937) |
(12,062) |
(17,823) |
(19,160) |
(20,055) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(808) |
(675) |
(17,304) |
(25,306) |
(25,306) |
(25,306) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(7,180) |
(4,781) |
(41,903) |
(36,538) |
(28,038) |
(19,538) |
Long term borrowings |
(1,391) |
(1,688) |
(36,882) |
(32,029) |
(23,529) |
(15,029) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(5,789) |
(3,093) |
(5,021) |
(4,509) |
(4,509) |
(4,509) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
34,282 |
99,893 |
86,347 |
82,020 |
84,188 |
86,781 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
10,676 |
119 |
2,039 |
(354) |
4,241 |
7,046 |
Net Interest |
105 |
(208) |
(69) |
3,102 |
0 |
250 |
||
Tax |
(2,022) |
379 |
(624) |
(229) |
(969) |
(1,464) |
||
Capex |
(738) |
(661) |
(548) |
(916) |
(1,100) |
(1,100) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(5,403) |
82,250 |
1,314 |
(2,178) |
(800) |
0 |
||
Financing |
(828) |
(6) |
(7,208) |
(4,287) |
(324) |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(2,931) |
(3,496) |
(11,710) |
(5,781) |
0 |
(1,171) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(1,141) |
78,377 |
(16,806) |
(10,643) |
1,048 |
3,561 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(8,259) |
(5,371) |
(87,320) |
(60,355) |
(41,412) |
(42,460) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
(2,788) |
(2,500) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(1,747) |
3,572 |
(7,371) |
(5,800) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(5,371) |
(87,320) |
(60,355) |
(41,412) |
(42,460) |
(46,021) |
Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
Keywords announced a £100m equity placing on 14 May 2020. The funds are to increase flexibility for the group’s buy-and-build M&A strategy and reinforce its financial position. Management also updated on trading over March and April (7% y-o-y growth), with January and February showing 21% y-o-y growth. Recognising this resilience during lockdown, we have raised our revenue growth forecast for FY20 to 8% y-o-y (4% previously), with a consequential impact on FY21e (€405.8m, 15% growth). We maintain our view that Keywords is well placed as the only games service provider on a global scale. The P/E rating (45.8x FY20e, 34.9x FY21e) reflects the company’s leading market position, track record and potential, but should fall further as Keywords executes its buy-and-build strategy.