Custodian Property Income REIT — Organic earnings and dividend growth

Custodian Property Income REIT (LSE: CREI)

Last close As at 19/07/2024

GBP0.77

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

GBP340m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

Custodian Property Income REIT — Organic earnings and dividend growth

Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) has published results for the year ended 31 March 2024 (FY24). As previously indicated in the Q424 update, set against a challenging market environment, FY24 performance was strong. Underpinned by leasing progress and rental growth, EPRA EPS increased 3.6% to 5.8p, fully covering the targeted recurring DPS of 5.5p and the 0.3p special dividend. The FY25 annual DPS target is 6.0p (+9%), underpinned by the robust occupier market and CREI’s increasing confidence in unlocking the significant value embedded in its portfolio.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Custodian Property Income REIT

Organic earnings and dividend growth

Publication of FY24 results

Real estate

14 June 2024

Price

72p

Market cap

£320m

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2024
(excluding restricted cash)

172

Net LTV as at 31 March 2024

29.2%

Shares in issue

440.9m

Free float

90%

Code

CREI

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Custodian Property Income REIT is a London Main Market-listed REIT focused on smaller lot-size commercial properties across the UK regions outside London. It is income focused, with a commitment to pay a high but sustainable and covered dividend, with the potential for capital growth.

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Custodian Property Income REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Custodian Property Income REIT (CREI) has published results for the year ended 31 March 2024 (FY24). As previously indicated in the Q424 update, set against a challenging market environment, FY24 performance was strong. Underpinned by leasing progress and rental growth, EPRA EPS increased 3.6% to 5.8p, fully covering the targeted recurring DPS of 5.5p and the 0.3p special dividend. The FY25 annual DPS target is 6.0p (+9%), underpinned by the robust occupier market and CREI’s increasing confidence in unlocking the significant value embedded in its portfolio.

Year end

Net rental income (£m)

EPRA earnings* (£m)

EPRA
EPS* (p)

NAV/**
share (p)

DPS
(p)

P/NAV**
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/23

37.1

24.8

5.6

99.3

5.50

0.78

7.1

03/24

38.4

25.7

5.8

93.4

5.80

0.82

7.5

03/25e

40.9

27.5

6.2

94.4

6.00

0.82

7.8

03/26e

42.0

28.9

6.6

98.3

6.12

0.78

7.9

Note: *Excludes revaluation gains/losses and other exceptional items. **Defined as EPRA net tangible assets (EPRA NTA) per share.

The increase in FY24 recurring earnings demonstrates the robustness of CREI’s diverse property portfolio, mitigating property and sector specific risk, while still delivering dividends that are fully covered by recurring earnings. FY24 earnings growth was driven by rental growth and increased occupancy, offsetting administrative cost inflation and higher finance costs. Rental growth continued through Q424, with like-for-like passing rent up 1.7% (+5.6% for the year), driven primarily by the industrial portfolio (49% of the portfolio by value and 40% by income). Q424 estimated rental value (ERV) was up 0.8% (+3.6% for the year) and is 15% above passing rent, representing a significant opportunity for further income growth through asset management and lease events. Further highlighting the opportunity, end-FY24 occupancy was 91.7% (up from 90.3% at the beginning of the year) and has since increased to c 93%.

Selective property disposals, especially vacant properties, are accretive to earnings and NAV, with proceeds supporting investment in the portfolio and debt reduction. During FY24, the company sold properties with an aggregate consideration of £18.2m, at an average premium of 12% to the start-year valuations, and invested £19m in enhancing existing assets. Subsequently, a vacant industrial unit in Warrington and a vacant former car showroom in Redhill have been sold for a combined £11.3m, 49% above the December (end-Q3) valuation and broadly in line with that at year-end.

During the year, property values fell by 4% on a like-for-like basis, directionally in line with the market, but stabilised in Q4. CREI expects further valuation support from the widely expected decline in interest rates in coming months. Over the year, NAV total return was slightly negative (-0.4%) with EPRA NTA per share declining 6% to 93.4p, but the Q4 total return was a positive 1.6%. In the 10 years since CREI was launched, NAV total return has been 5.5% including reinvestment of dividends.

While it acknowledges the potential for sector consolidation to generate economies of scale and further enhance diversification, CREI’s main focus remains on exploiting its organic growth opportunity.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Custodian Property Income REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Custodian Property Income REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Custodian Property Income REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Custodian Property Income REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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