NioCorp Developments — Opportunities and optimisations

NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ: NB)

Last close As at 19/07/2024

USD2.00

−0.05 (−2.44%)

Market capitalisation

USD75m

More on this equity

Research: Metals & Mining

NioCorp Developments — Opportunities and optimisations

Since our initiation note in January, NioCorp has 1) raised c US$7.6m in debt and equity instruments, 2) de-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange, 3) announced the results of a scoping study, which suggested that the adoption of a Railveyor system could lead to material savings in both capex and opex at its Elk Creek project as well as reducing the underground mine’s carbon footprint, and 4) announced that it has received a preliminary, non-binding indicative financing term sheet from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) with respect to NioCorp’s application for US$800m in debt financing to develop the project. This note updates our valuation of NioCorp for all of the above as well as the construction of an aluminium-scandium master alloy line at the mine, the size and timing of future equity fund-raisings and rare earth oxide pricing assumptions.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Metals & Mining

NioCorp Developments

Developments and revisions

Metals and mining

17 June 2024

Price

US$2.00

Market cap

US$74m

C$1.3777/US$

Net debt as at end-March

US$1.7m

Shares in issue

36.8m

Free float

87.2%

Code

NB

Primary exchange

Nasdaq

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(14.3)

(24.7)

(59.7)

Rel (local)

(17.2)

(28.6)

(67.5)

52-week high/low

US$5.3

US$2.0

Business description

NioCorp Developments is developing North America’s only niobium/scandium/titanium critical minerals mine and processing facility at Elk Creek in Nebraska. Its mission is to accelerate the US transition to a lower carbon economy by serving as a reliable domestic supplier of sustainably produced critical minerals.

Next events

Q424/FY24 results

August/September 2024

Final investment decision

H1 CY25

First production

CY27/FY28

Analysts

Lord Ashbourne

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Andrew Keen

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

NioCorp Developments is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Since our initiation note in January, NioCorp has 1) raised c US$7.6m in debt and equity instruments, 2) de-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange, 3) announced the results of a scoping study, which suggested that the adoption of a Railveyor system could lead to material savings in both capex and opex at its Elk Creek project as well as reducing the underground mine’s carbon footprint, and 4) announced that it has received a preliminary, non-binding indicative financing term sheet from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) with respect to NioCorp’s application for US$800m in debt financing to develop the project. This note updates our valuation of NioCorp for all of the above as well as the construction of an aluminium-scandium master alloy line at the mine, the size and timing of future equity fund-raisings and rare earth oxide pricing assumptions.

Opportunities and optimisations

Year end

Revenue (US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/22

0.0

(10.6)

(41.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/23

0.0

(39.7)

(134.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/24e

0.0

(21.9)

(52.4)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/25e

0.0

(10.2)

(14.7)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items

Equity fund-raising sizes, timings and prices are key

So far in 2024, the ferro-niobium price has continued to demonstrate the stability for which it is well known. In contrast to our previous note however, we are now assuming a staggered approach to equity financing by the company, with two fund-raisings in FY24 and FY25 (cf a single equity fund-raising assumed previously). We have also reconsidered our rare earth pricing assumptions in the Sensitivities section of the note to reflect a more positive outlook, given increasing supply-demand divergence as a result of the growing demand for magnets, EV traction motors and wind power generators etc.

Valuation: Plenty of potential upside

NioCorp’s definitive feasibility study (DFS) in June 2022 calculated a pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) for the Elk Creek project of 29.2% (in US dollar terms) and a post-tax NPV of US$2,350m at an 8% discount rate. This equates to US$63.85 per share in issue, to which NioCorp’s shares are currently trading at a 96.9% discount. By contrast, Edison calculates a project value for Elk Creek of US$1,358m, or US$36.89/share. Alternatively, valuing the company based on two assumed equity raisings in the next 12 months of US$341.2m in aggregate (cf one tranche of US$425.5m previously) and assuming a share price re-rating between the two, we calculate a fully diluted valuation for NioCorp of US$17.57 (cf US$7.16/share previously), rising to a peak of US$34.23/share on the cusp of the company’s first significant dividend in FY32 (cf US$16.87/share previously). Note that if the shares do not re-rate and the second fund-raising is conducted at the same price as the first (ie the currently prevailing price of US$2.00), then our valuation still rises by 6.4% US$7.62/share (see Exhibit 7).

Developments and revisions

Since our initiation note published on 8 January, NioCorp has:

Raised c US$7.6m in a variety of convertible and equity instruments.

De-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Experienced a fall in its share price to US$2.00 – not least as a result of share sales in an environment of improved liquidity following the conversion of its various convertible instruments. Readers should note that recent filings by NioCorp suggest that Yorkville/YA II must have sold at least c 1.2m shares over the course of the past year. However, the balance sheet value of the January 2023 convertible issued by NioCorp to Yorkville/YA II has declined from US$5.5m as at end-December 2023 to US$0.75m as at May 2024. This affects our fully diluted valuation of the company, albeit not the project valuation.

Announced the results of a scoping study by its engineering contractor suggesting that the adoption of a Railveyor system could lead to material savings in capex and opex costs at Elk Creek – in contrast to the currently planned vertical mining shafts – as well as reducing the underground mine’s carbon footprint.

Announced that it has received a preliminary, non-binding indicative financing term sheet from EXIM as part of a Preliminary Project Letter (PPL) conveying EXIM’s initial due diligence findings to NioCorp on its application for US$800m in debt financing from EXIM for Elk Creek. Management is working with EXIM to continue to advance the project through the next stages of EXIM’s due diligence and loan application process. Note that Edison estimates that US$800m in debt funding would be sufficient to cover all of NioCorp’s debt funding needs to bring the project to production.

In the meantime, the ferro-niobium price has continued to demonstrate the stability for which it is well known. However, we have reconfigured our financial model of NioCorp to include the possibility of upgrading a portion of the proposed scandium oxide output into 2% aluminium-scandium master alloy. We have also adopted a staggered equity financing assumption in two tranches in FY24 and FY25 to fund the project (cf a single equity fund-raising assumed previously). We have also reconsidered our rare earth pricing assumptions to reflect a more positive outlook, given increasing supply-demand divergence as a result of growing demand for magnets, EV traction motors and wind power generators, etc. All of these are then incorporated into our revised valuation of the company, below.

Railveyor option

On 20 May, NioCorp announced the completion of a scoping study by its engineering contractor regarding the adoption of a Railveyor system at Elk Creek. The Railveyor system is a fully electric and autonomous bulk material handling system that has been in operation over many years in a number of underground mines and delivers mined ore to processing facilities via a narrow-gauge light rail system propelled by low-horsepower drive stations adjacent to the rail route. The study examined the impacts of:

1.

removing the Elk Creek mine’s currently planned two vertical mining shafts and all associated infrastructure,

2.

creating a new twin ramp design to be used by the Railveyor system,

3.

determining the suitability of a Railveyor haulage system,

4.

the electrification of the underground mobile equipment fleet and

5.

a conceptual portal cut design to provide mobile equipment access through the upper soil layer from ground surface to the start of the ramp system in the underlying limestone.

While preliminary in nature, the study nevertheless used industry standards and best engineering judgement. In summary, the design removes the production shaft, ventilation shaft and all material handling infrastructure from the design of the mine to be replaced by two ramps. The first (Ramp 1) has been designed with a maximum gradient of ±15% and will be used for all personnel and equipment movement. The second (Ramp 2), with a maximum gradient of ±18%, will be for the Railveyor haulage system itself. The Railveyor train system is designed with cars that hold c 1.2t of material each and differ from a traditional train system in that the cars are connected in a continuous loop akin to a conveyor belt. This system allows for simple, continuous loading with the haulage flexibility of a train system. In addition, it runs on electricity and the new design would use battery-powered, instead of currently planned diesel-powered, equipment. As a result, the study posits significantly reduced emissions as well as the following economic benefits:

Exhibit 1: Indicated economic benefits of Railveyor system to Elk Creek

Item (units)

Original (2022) shaft scenario cost

Updated (2024) twin ramp Railveyor scenario

Difference

Difference

(%)

Initial capex (US$000s)

356,000

167,100

-188,900

-53.1

Sustaining capex (US$000s)

198,400

214,700

16,300

8.2

Total capex (US$000s)

554,400

381,800

-172,600

-31.1

Opex (US$/t)

42.32

41.68

-0.63

-1.5

Source: NioCorp Developments

As a result of the study, for the purposes of our economic and financial modelling, we have:

reduced initial capex at the project by US$188.9m, from US$1,213.7m to US$1,024.8m,

increased life of mine sustaining capex by US$16.3m (or 4.0%), from US$405.5m to US$421.8m, and

reduced our mining operating expenses – which were already at an elevated level of US$48.70/t to reflect recent inflationary pressures – by 1.5% to a life-of-mine average of US$47.97/t.

The study also suggests that the Railveyor system could allow Elk Creek to reach full commercial production in month 40 of the project’s development, rather than month 45 (ie a five-month saving). For the moment however, we have yet to incorporate this chronological acceleration into our financial models (although we have included the capex and opex effects) and have maintained our original schedule of initial capex from CY25–28 with first production at the end of CY27 (FY28).

Aluminium-scandium master alloy production

In our initiation note, we observed that we thought it likely that NioCorp would, in due course, upgrade its scandium processing line to produce a scandium-aluminium master alloy. Master alloys are created to introduce an accurate amount of a metal into a pre-existing alloy (eg ferro-niobium, ferro-vanadium, ferro-chrome, ferro-manganese, etc). In this case however, the master alloy in question would be a 2% aluminium-scandium master alloy for ease of adding small, but precisely controlled, amounts of scandium to aluminium alloys to improve their strength and lower the mass of metal required to support a pre-determined load (see our initiation note for a description of this). In simple terms, the creation of a 2% aluminium-scandium master alloy is achieved by introducing scandium to aluminium in molten phase. In practice however, it is impossible to achieve this by adding scandium oxide to aluminium and the scandium oxide therefore has to be first converted into either scandium metal or scandium chloride. Neither is technically demanding, although the requirement for the intermediate chemical reactions does impose some additional cost in the order of US$3.35/kg master alloy produced. In addition, there is a small capex requirement – small on account of the fact that NioCorp may produce in the order of 2,400tpa master alloy only – which we estimate to be in the order of US$7.75m. Nevertheless, over 90% of the value of the resulting master alloy is accounted for by the value of the contained scandium.

In our initiation note, we estimated a long-term scandium price of US$2,500/kg (cf a price of US$3,674/kg in NioCorp’s 2022 Elk Creek DFS). Given the costs and processes involved in creating a 2% aluminium-scandium master alloy, for the purposes of our financial modelling in this note, we have chosen to assume that 75% of NioCorp’s scandium oxide production is directed towards aluminium-scandium master alloy production and that the value of this product is US$98.00/kg (which is the most recently reported price by the USGS in its 2023 and 2024 Mineral Commodity Summaries for a one tonne lot size). This price of aluminium-scandium master alloy equates to a backed-out scandium oxide price of US$3,021/kg, which we believe will be justified as aluminium-scandium master alloys increasingly become the alloying agents of choice for industrial consumers. Variations from this price are considered separately in the Sensitivities section of this note (below).

Rare earth price assumptions

In our initiation note, we assumed long-term prices of neodymium/praseodymium oxide (Nd/Pr), terbium oxide and dysprosium oxide of US$95/kg, US$1,125/kg and US$436/kg, respectively. In general terms, these are above current prices, but are below the levels of some specialist consultants in the industry:

Exhibit 2: Rare earth price comparison, spot price versus Edison forecast price and selected third-party forecast prices (US$/kg)

US$/kg

Spot price

Edison long-term price*

Selected sample of third parties*

Variance, third parties cf Edison (%)

Neodymium oxide

56.50

Praseodymium oxide

54.00

Nd/Pr oxide

95.00

134.23

+41.3

Terbium oxide

890.00

1,125.00

1,528.46

+35.9

Dysprosium oxide

280.50

436.00

363.66

-16.6

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg and Niocorp. Note: *Real 2024 money terms.

While Edison is not yet revising its long-term rare earth oxide (REO) pricing assumptions, we have considered the valuation effect of third parties’ price forecasts in our Sensitivities section.

Equity fund-raising timing

Where before we had assumed a single equity fund-raising of US$425.5m in the latter stages of FY24 in order to achieve a maximum net debt:equity ratio of 2:1 (in FY28), we have now revised this assumption to an equity raising of US$20–25m at NioCorp’s prevailing share price of US$2.00 in the near future in order to fund the company through to a final investment decision in early CY25. As a result of a degree of de-risking inherent in this process, we would expect NioCorp’s shares to appreciate in the interim, which we would then expect to form the basis of a much more material, US$318.7m fund-raising in FY25 (note: lower in aggregate than the original assumption on account of the reduced capex expectation included in the Railveyor development option) in order to achieve the same maximum 2:1 net debt:equity ratio.

Valuation

Unrisked DFS valuation

NioCorp’s DFS – effective date 28 June 2022 – calculated a pre-tax IRR on the Elk Creek project of 29.2% (in US dollar terms) and a post-tax net present value (NPV) of US$2,350m at an 8% discount rate. With 36.8m shares in issue in May, this post-tax NPV equates to US$63.85 per share in issue. Stated alternatively, NioCorp’s current enterprise value of US$75.3m equates to just 3.2% of the company’s attributable project NPV.

Project valuation based on Edison assumptions

Incorporating our revised assumptions to take into account the effect of the Railveyor development option as well as the 2% aluminium-scandium master alloy product upgrade, we calculate an IRR for the Elk Creek project of 24.8% and an unlevered NPV of US$1,357.8m, or US$36.89/share, to the beginning of July 2024 at our customary discount rate of 10% (cf a value of US$971.7m, or US$29.16/share, at the time of our initiation note in January).

Company valuation

Our valuation of NioCorp differs from our valuation of the Elk Creek project in that it values the company based on our estimate of the maximum dividends that it could pay to shareholders (discounted at a 10% rate). In this case, we assume an initial fund-raising of US$20–25m at the prevailing share price of US$2.00 in the near future in order the fund the company through to a final investment decision in early CY25. As a result of the de-risking inherent in this process, we calculate an updated valuation of US$7.62/share in FY25, when a second, more material fund raising of US$318.7m takes place. Assuming that the shares re-rate to this level and that the second fund-raising is then conducted at US$7.62/share valuation, we calculate a present value for NioCorp of US$17.57/share, rising to a peak of US$34.23/share in FY32 on the cusp of the company’s assumed maiden dividend, as shown in Exhibit 3. Note that if the shares do not re-rate and the second fund-raising is conducted at the same price as the first (ie the currently prevailing price of US$2.00 – see also Exhibit 7), then our valuation still rises by 6.4% to US$7.62/share (cf US$7.16/share previously), rising to a peak of US$14.84/share in FY32 (cf US$16.87/share in FY33 previously).

Exhibit 3: NioCorp EPS, maximum potential DPS and valuation, FY24–68e (US$/share)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Alternatively, under these circumstances, it can be stated that an investment in NioCorp’s shares at the current share price should generate an IRR for investors equivalent to 30.3% per year for the 43 years from FY25 until FY68 in US dollar terms.

Exhibit 4, below, shows the evolution of our valuation according to each factor considered. Of note is that by far the largest contributor to our revised valuation is the assumed price at which the second tranche of equity is raised – now being US$7.62/share after a material share price re-rating between the first and second tranches in CY24 and CY25, respectively (note: the first tranche is assumed to be raised at the prevailing share price of US$2.00):

Exhibit 4: Bridge chart showing NioCorp valuation evolution (US$/share)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Sensitivities

As per our discussions above, the two major sensitivities to be quantified for the purposes this note relate to the production of 2% aluminium-scandium master alloy and REO pricing. In addition, we have updated our Elk Creek project valuation with respect to the discount rate and our NioCorp valuation with respect to the price at which the second, major project equity fund-raising is conducted in CY25.

Aluminium-scandium master alloy price

The initial price at which we have assumed NioCorp’s future 2% aluminium-scandium master alloy to be sold is US$98.00/kg, which is the most recently reported price by the USGS in its 2023 and 2024 Mineral Commodity Summaries for a one tonne lot size. This price equates to a backed-out scandium oxide equivalent price of US$3,021/t – the premium to our base case scandium oxide price being justified on the assumption that master alloy will trade at a premium to its equivalent scandium oxide price as it becomes the alloying agent of choice for industrial consumers. The table below demonstrates the sensitivity of both our NioCorp and Elk Creek project valuations with respect to variations in the price of 2% aluminium-scandium master alloy from this initial price assumption:

Exhibit 5: NioCorp and Elk Creek valuation (US$/share) sensitivities to variations in 2% Al-Sc master alloy price

2% Al-Sc master alloy price (US$/kg)

78.40

88.20

98.00

107.80

117.60

Price change (%)

-20%

-10%

Unchanged

+10%

+20%

NioCorp DDF* valuation (US$/share)

14.71

16.05

17.57

18.72

20.15

Change (%)

-16.3

-8.7

u/c

+6.5

+14.7

Elk Creek DCF** valuation (US$/share)

30.30

33.67

36.89

39.94

43.60

Change (%)

-17.9

-8.7

u/c

+8.3

+18.2

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *DDF, discounted dividend flow (including estimated dilution). **DCF, discounted cash flow.

Rare earth oxide price assumptions

As noted previously, in our initiation note, we assumed long-term prices of neodymium/praseodymium oxide (Nd/Pr), terbium oxide and dysprosium oxide of US$95/kg, US$1,125/kg and US$436/kg, respectively. In general terms, these are above current prices, but are as much as 41.3% below the levels forecast by some specialist consultants in the industry. If, instead of using Edison’s long-term REO price assumptions, we use those set out in Exhibit 2, our valuations of NioCorp shares and the Elk Creek project would increase by 7.2% and 9.0%, respectively, as shown below:

Exhibit 6: Elk Creek project and NioCorp share price valuation sensitivities to rare earth oxide prices (US$/share)

US$/share

Valuation at Edison long-term price forecasts*

Valuation at selected sample of third-party price forecasts*

Variance

(%)

NioCorp

17.57

18.83

+7.2

Elk Creek project

36.89

40.21

+9.0

Source: Edison Investment Research, third parties. Note: *See Exhibit 2.

Note that, for the purposes of the NioCorp valuation analysis, we left the assumed share price of the second equity fund-raising unchanged at US$7.62/share. In fact, the adoption of a higher REO price would imply that this should itself increase by 7.1%, to US$8.16/share, in which case the ultimate valuation of NioCorp would increase by a further 10.6%, from US$17.57/share (Exhibit 6, above) to US$19.43/share.

Other sensitivities

In the context of the above, our analysis of the sensitivity of our NioCorp valuation to the assumed price at which the second tranche of equity finance is raised in CY25 is as follows:

Exhibit 7: Sensitivity of NioCorp valuation (US$/share) to price of future equity raise

Change (%)

-65.0

u/c

+50.0

+100.0

+150.0

+200.0

+250.0

+300.0

+350.0

+400.0

+450.0

Price (US$/share)

1.30

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

7.62

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

Valuation (US$/share)

5.39

7.62

10.24

12.36

14.13

15.61

16.88

17.57

17.97

18.92

19.76

20.50

Source: Edison Investment Research

Finally, our Elk Creek project valuation sensitivity with respect to the discount rate used is shown in Exhibit 8 below. In this case, the project valuation’s high sensitivity to the discount rate may be attributed to the long life of the Elk Creek mine in absolute terms:

Exhibit 8: NioCorp and Elk Creek valuation (US$/share) sensitivities to variations in the discount rate (%)

Discount rate (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Elk Creek DCF* valuation (US$/share)

273.05

92.94

36.89

15.01

4.97

-ve

-ve

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *DCF, discounted cash flow.

Two additional, operational refinements that we also understand NioCorp to be considering relate to its production of magnesium and calcium carbonates and iron oxide. Currently, both of these are considered waste products. However, calcium carbonate improves concrete’s particle packing and promotes its self-compacting properties, while magnesium carbonate shortens the setting time of cement paste. Both therefore could be redirected to a local cement plant and we understand that NioCorp’s management is currently evaluating this option as well as considering how they might be integrated into the Elk Creek mine’s backfill requirements. In a similar fashion, certain iron oxides are used by brick works to effect the red colour in bricks and we believe that this is also an option for Elk Creek’s iron oxide production. In addition to the supplementary revenue that either of these options could generate, the reduced amount of waste being directed to the project’s tailings storage facilities could also – potentially materially – reduce capital and operating cost requirements.

Exhibit 9: Financial summary

US$'000s

2022

2023

2024e

2025e

2026e

2027e

2028e

2029e

2030e

June

GAAP

GAAP

GAAP

GAAP

GAAP

GAAP

GAAP

GAAP

GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

191,171

477,486

578,362

Cost of Sales

0

0

0

0

(177)

(5,337)

(60,282)

(128,265)

(161,134)

Gross Profit

0

0

0

0

(177)

(5,337)

130,889

349,221

417,228

EBITDA

 

 

(7,793)

(37,407)

(16,580)

(10,252)

(10,429)

(15,589)

117,869

331,984

398,631

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) 

(7,796)

(37,410)

(16,583)

(10,255)

(10,432)

(15,592)

117,866

331,981

261,995

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(264)

(866)

4,637

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(8,060)

(38,276)

(11,946)

(10,255)

(10,432)

(15,592)

117,866

331,981

261,995

Net Interest

(2,827)

(2,336)

(5,283)

64

1,174

121

(43,817)

(77,446)

(66,733)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(10,623)

(39,746)

(21,866)

(10,191)

(9,258)

(15,471)

74,049

254,535

195,262

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(10,887)

(40,612)

(17,229)

(10,191)

(9,258)

(15,471)

74,049

254,535

195,262

Tax

0

304

101

0

0

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(10,887)

(40,308)

(17,128)

(10,191)

(9,258)

(15,471)

74,049

254,535

195,262

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(10,887)

(40,308)

(17,128)

(10,191)

(9,258)

(15,471)

74,049

254,535

195,262

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

26.4

28.7

31.2

69.0

89.9

89.9

89.9

89.9

89.9

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(41.3)

(134.3)

(52.4)

(14.7)

(10.2)

(17.1)

81.9

281.4

215.9

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c)

 

 

(41.3)

(134.3)

(30.8)

(11.2)

(8.2)

(13.8)

65.9

226.4

173.7

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

(41.3)

(139.6)

(53.4)

(14.7)

(10.2)

(17.1)

81.9

281.4

215.9

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

17,074

17,204

17,201

81,524

282,965

690,442

1,053,778

1,185,133

1,083,612

Intangible Assets

94

236

236

22,236

44,236

66,236

88,236

110,236

110,236

Tangible Assets

16,935

16,924

16,921

59,244

238,685

624,162

965,498

1,074,853

973,332

Investments

45

44

44

44

44

44

44

44

44

Current Assets

 

 

5,682

3,726

15,329

237,473

237,473

237,473

258,423

289,800

300,855

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

15,713

39,245

47,537

Debtors

0

0

0

0

0

0

5,238

13,082

15,846

Cash

5,280

2,341

15,068

237,212

237,212

237,212

237,212

237,212

237,212

Other

402

1,385

261

261

261

261

261

261

261

Current Liabilities

 

 

(5,068)

(3,562)

(5,198)

(71)

(86)

(510)

(5,026)

(10,613)

(13,315)

Creditors

(817)

(3,491)

(5,127)

0

(15)

(439)

(4,955)

(10,542)

(13,244)

Short term borrowings

(4,251)

(71)

(71)

(71)

(71)

(71)

(71)

(71)

(71)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(23)

(26,235)

(13,346)

(13,346)

(224,030)

(646,554)

(952,275)

(854,885)

(566,455)

Long term borrowings

(23)

(10,725)

(2,270)

(2,270)

(212,954)

(635,478)

(941,199)

(843,809)

(555,379)

Other long term liabilities

0

(15,510)

(11,076)

(11,076)

(11,076)

(11,076)

(11,076)

(11,076)

(11,076)

Net Assets

 

 

17,665

(8,867)

13,986

305,580

296,323

280,852

354,900

609,435

804,697

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(5,898)

(17,031)

(10,838)

(37,379)

(32,415)

(37,165)

79,434

284,195

390,278

Net Interest

(252)

(264)

(5,283)

64

1,174

121

(43,817)

(77,446)

(66,733)

Tax

0

0

101

0

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(16)

21

0

(42,326)

(179,444)

(385,480)

(341,338)

(109,359)

(35,114)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

4,447

1,993

37,202

301,786

0

0

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(1,719)

(15,281)

21,182

222,144

(210,684)

(422,524)

(305,721)

97,390

288,430

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(2,725)

(1,006)

8,455

(12,727)

(234,871)

(24,187)

398,337

704,058

606,668

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

5,820

0

0

0

0

(0)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1,006)

8,455

(12,727)

(234,871)

(24,187)

398,337

704,058

606,668

318,238

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by NioCorp Developments and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by NioCorp Developments. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison’s policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers’ exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by NioCorp Developments and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by NioCorp Developments. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison’s policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers’ exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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