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Research: Metals & Mining
In what has been a frenetic 16 weeks since our last note, Ajax has accelerated its strategic evolution via an offer to acquire Nueva Celti in Spain at the same time as proposing a creative solution for its acquisition of Rachaite (essentially by swapping its Eureka interest for Rachaite and El Salto) and materially advancing its acquisition of Paguanta. Over the same time period, it has confirmed that it has submitted all requests for additional information and technical clarification required by the Salta authorities for approval of its Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) at Macacha in Argentina, presided over the listing of Reveille on the Aquis exchange in London and commenced the environmental permitting process for its planned maiden drilling campaign at Pereira Velho. This note updates our range of valuations for Ajax for all of these developments. In addition, it has been disclosed that directors have been recent buyers of Ajax’s shares.
| Year end | Revenue (£m) | PBT (£m) | EPS (p) | DPS (p) | P/E (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/25e | 0.0 | (0.1) | (0.27) | 0.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 2/26e | 0.0 | (0.8) | (1.20) | 0.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 2/27e | 0.0 | (0.8) | (0.69) | 0.00 | N/A | N/A |
| 2/28e | 0.0 | (0.9) | (0.69) | 0.00 | N/A | N/A |
Rachaite is located in Argentina’s north-west, in a recognised polymetallic lead-zinc-silver
(Pb-Zn-Ag) metallogenic belt in Jujuy. It comprises a single exploration licence and
was previously part of a larger prospect owned by Alexander Mining. In 1985, a historical
mineral estimate prepared by Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino (SEGEMAR) described
c 5Mt of mineralised material at Rachaite at reported average grades of 0.7% lead,
1.5% zinc and 200ppm silver, containing c 35,000t Pb, 75,000t Zn and c 32Moz Ag, which
we would typically value in a range of
Taking minimum valuations for each of its assets, we calculate a conservative sum-of-the-parts valuation for Ajax, as at August 2026, of £13.4m (cf £10.9m previously), or 10.8p/share. That is a 72.8% premium to the current share price, or, alternatively, Ajax’s shares can be said to be trading at a 42.1% discount to fair value. However, all of Ajax’s assets have blue-sky exploration upside and/or historical resource estimates that may be significantly in excess of the more recent ones. If full value for this potential can be realised (and implicitly brought up to current JORC or NI 43-101 standards), then we believe that Ajax’s sum-of-the-parts valuation could increase to as much as 90.2p (cf 46.4p previously), representing an increase on the current share price of 14.4 times. Between these two extremes, we calculate a mean sum-of-the-parts valuation of Ajax of 38.2p/share (cf 25.7p/share previously), which is 6.1x the current share price.
Ajax’s strategy is the acquisition of assets with historical past production that can be revitalised through targeted technical, geological and infrastructural investment. Since our last note on the company (see Ajax Resources, On the Appian Way to El Dorado, published on 12 May), it has announced:
In the meantime, Ajax is continuing to pursue its intended dual listing on the Oslo Stock Exchange’s Euronext Growth Oslo market in September/October, which is a key priority and will significantly enhance its shares’ liquidity and market exposure in Norway (and thereby Scandinavia) as well as across Europe (providing visibility throughout the various Euronext exchanges).
At the end of another busy 16 weeks therefore, this suite of announcements leaves Ajax with potentially five principal assets (namely Pereira Velho, Macacha, Paguanta, Rachaite and Nueva Celti) and one equity investment (Reveille). Pereira Velho, Macacha, Paguanta and Reveille have all been the subject of previous analysis by Edison. Hence, this report focuses on the new assets that Ajax is in the process of acquiring (Rachaite and Nueva Celti) prior to updating our valuation.
Rachaite is located in north-western Argentina, in the high-altitude Puna region of the Jujuy province in a recognised polymetallic lead-zinc-silver metallogenic belt. It comprises a single exploration licence, named Mina Chocaya, covering c 200ha and was previously part of a larger prospect consisting of two additional contiguous exploration licences, formerly owned by Alexander Mining. During 2005–06, Alexander completed a diamond drilling programme in Mina Chocaya comprising six diamond drill holes, each to an average depth of c 250m, which were drilled into an exposed altered andesitic body. The drilling programme confirmed the presence of anomalous silver, lead and zinc mineralisation, with assay results returning values of up to 15.3g/t silver, 1.66% zinc and 0.46% lead. In the southern portion of the body, one drill hole also intersected a zone grading 2.4m at 0.39g/t gold at a depth of c 40m. It may also represent an opportunity to identify a potentially large porphyry target situated in a favourable structural environment.
El Salto similarly formed part of the exploration portfolio of Alexander Mining, which undertook geological mapping, surface sampling and technical evaluation across the project. Historical technical reports prepared during that period identified surface copper-silver mineralisation hosted within the Yacoraite Formation, including reported rock-chip assay results of up to 3.53% Cu and 33.2g/t Ag. The reports also identified the Yacoraite-Lecho Formation contact as a priority exploration target and outlined an initial 750m diamond drilling programme (albeit these historical results have not yet been independently verified by Ajax and will be evaluated as part of the company's technical due-diligence process).
A historical mineral estimate prepared in 1985 by Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino
(SEGEMAR) describes c 5Mt of
mineralised material at Rachaite at reported average grades of 0.7% lead, 1.5% zinc
and 200ppm silver,
containing c 35,000t lead, 75,000t zinc and c 32Moz silver.
Applying the same average resource multiple of
However, there is also evidence (which, in this case, is statistically significant at the 5% level, based on the number of data points in the population and the correlation coefficient between them) that silver resource sizes are inversely proportional to their multiples, such that smaller resources attract higher in-situ valuations on the presumption that they have expansion potential as shown below:
On the basis of this relationship, Rachaite’s resource estimate of 32.2Moz in-situ
silver (cf 6.8Moz at Paguanta) would imply a resource multiple of
In our sum-of-the-parts valuation below therefore (Exhibits 5 and 6), we ascribe a
minimum valuation to Rachaite/El Salto equivalent to the minimum valuation that we
previously ascribed to Eureka (for which it is being exchanged), of £0.37m, representing
cash invested in its original acquisition (£170,000) plus capex subsequently invested
in the project (c £0.2m). Our mean valuation is then
Nueva Celti is a historical underground copper mine located near Peñaflor in the Province of Seville, Andalusia, Spain, within the Ossa-Morena Metallogenic Belt (one of Europe's best-known polymetallic mining provinces). As such, it benefits from established infrastructure, including sealed road access, nearby rail infrastructure, grid power and proximity to existing mining and processing facilities, providing multiple potential development pathways (subject to successful exploration and future technical studies). The proposed acquisition covers an Investigation Permit covering approximately 1,234ha, initially valid for a period of three years, but then renewable in accordance with applicable Spanish mining law.
Mining activity at Nueva Celti dates back to the 19th century, with significant underground production between 1902 and 1918 via six underground mining levels accessed by two shafts extending to c 130m depth. Historical production records indicate selected ore grades in excess of 5% copper. Subsequent exploration by Astur-Placer, Asturiana de Zinc (now part of Glencore) and more recent exploration by Western Metallica totals more than 9,000m of drilling, while modern drilling completed in 2023 successfully confirmed key aspects of the historical geological interpretation and the continuation of copper mineralisation beneath the historical workings. According to Western Metallica's technical work, the geological potential comprises c 8–10Mt at grades between 1.2% and 1.5% copper, together with potential gold, silver, lead and zinc credits. Additional exploration targets have been identified along strike and at depth beneath the historical mine workings, albeit, to date, there has been insufficient exploration to estimate a mineral resource in accordance with any internationally recognised reporting standard.
Subject to the completion of the proposed acquisition, Ajax intends to immediately commence the next phase of exploration at Nueva Celti, to which end it has engaged consultants with direct prior experience of the project, including individuals involved in its previous exploration programmes in order to provide continuity of technical knowledge as it advances into the next phase of exploration. This will comprise an initial 3,000m diamond drilling programme, targeting extensions of the known mineralised system both along strike and at depth beneath the historical workings, at an estimated cost of c €0.5m and with the primary objective of delineating the known mineralised system sufficiently to support the publication of a maiden JORC-compliant mineral resource estimate, while simultaneously testing extensions of the mineralisation along strike and at depth. Subject to completion and verification during the due-diligence process, the company expects drilling to commence in September or October 2026. In addition, Ajax understands that the drilling contractor that previously undertook exploration work at Nueva Celti has indicated that c €90,000 of previous drilling expenditure may be recognised in connection with a future drilling programme. Until then, Edison’s estimates of Nueva Celti’s potential value to Ajax (as reflected in Exhibits 5 and 6) are as shown in the table below:
Whereas Reveille was a private company at the time of our last note, it has since
been listed on Aquis on 7 July at a price of 5p per share, in the process raising
£2.0m. In addition to its valuation in the event that it is able to declare a JORC-compliant
resource in Lombardy therefore, Ajax’s holding in Reveille may also now be valued
according to its shareholding in the company, being 12.0m shares at a share price
of 5.5p/share to give a valuation of £0.66m, or
Whereas Ajax’s focus is on South America, Reveille’s focus is on similarly undervalued historical mineral deposits, but located in Europe, in instances where prior exploration and infrastructure provide a strong foundation for value creation. Its initial focus will be on the Lombardy project in northern Italy, comprising the Novazza and Val Vedello uranium deposits (Exhibit 4) in order to take advantage of the evolving European energy market in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, war in the Middle East and the accelerated drive towards self-sufficiency and decarbonisation. In Italy, this has manifested itself as a renewed interest in nuclear power within a regulatory framework (together with the Italian government's updated National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan submitted to the EU in 2024) that stipulates nuclear providing 11–22% of Italy's electricity by 2050.
The two deposits have been the subject of extensive historical exploration in the past, including 80,000m of drilling, but have not been evaluated to modern standards. Evidence of uranium mineralisation in north-west Italy was first identified as early as 1912. A more concerted exploration effort began in 1957, led by AGIP Nucleare, a subsidiary of Eni, as part of Italy's national nuclear energy programme and concurrent with the construction of the country's first nuclear power plants. The Novazza deposit was identified in 1959, with development commencing in the 1970s, while the Val Vedello deposit was discovered in 1975. Underground mine development took place at both sites during the late 1970s before ceasing in 1979, with exploration activities continuing into the 1980s. Ultimately, this historical exploration defined estimated resources of c 1,000t of metallic uranium (1,179t U3O8 equivalent) at Novazza and around 6,000t of uranium oxide (U3O8) at Val Vedello, with average grades of up to 0.1% U3O8.
Val Vedello and Novazza together constitute Italy's largest known uranium deposit. In addition, they are notable for their extensive and well-engineered underground mining networks comprising multi-level, vehicle-accessible workings that remain in place and accessible for modern exploration activities, which provides a significant advantage in enabling exploration programmes to be conducted rapidly and at comparatively low cost, without the need for substantial new underground development. As such, over 30,000m of underground drilling across both deposits is planned to validate historical data and define mineral resources in accordance with current international reporting standards.
Relative to our last note, our valuation of Paguanta remains entirely unchanged. However, we have now included valuations for Rachaite and Nueva Celti and an updated valuation of Ajax’s interest in Reveille, as per our discussions above. Other adjustments include:
We have also updated our valuation for the number of Ajax shares in issue and anticipated
to be in issue, plus our updated estimate of net cash as at end-August. Taking our
most conservative estimates for each of the company’s assets, our sum-of-the-parts
valuation for Ajax is as follows:
On this basis, Ajax’s net asset value is at a 72.8% premium to its share price or, alternatively, its share price could be said to be trading at a 42.1% discount to NAV.
In contrast to Exhibit 5, above, Exhibit 6, below, shows the maximum value that may be derived for Ajax, based on the maximum values attributed to each of its underlying assets and, from these, a mean valuation, with the mean typically being based on the average of the maximum and minimum valuations, with the exception of Macacha and PV which use three different in-situ valuations for each of its scenarios and Rachaite, which uses two in-situ valuations and one book value (see page 5 in the paragraph below Exhibit 2).
For the purposes of this valuation, our net cash/debt estimate in the maximum and mean scenarios is our estimate for end-FY29 (see Exhibit 7) and therefore naturally incorporates all intervening deferred consideration and exploration investments.
On this basis, it can be seen that Ajax’s maximum potential valuation exceeds its minimum valuation by a factor of 8.3x and its share price by a factor of 14.4x.
Ajax had £3.1m in net cash on its balance sheet as at end-February 2026. It maintains no head office and, at the current time, pays only one cash salary. Hence, there is a minimal administrative cash drag. In FY27, we estimate that it will experience a similar £0.9m cash drag (before working capital) as in FY26, before investing £2.3m both corporately and in exploration, of which c £0.8m will be in the form of equity, to leave it with £0.7m as at end-FY27, as shown in Exhibit 7, below.
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Research: Healthcare
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