NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ: NB)

Last close As at 20/06/2024

USD1.90

−0.01 (−0.52%)

Market capitalisation

USD71m

NioCorp Developments is developing North America’s only niobium/scandium/titanium critical minerals mine and processing facility at Elk Creek in Nebraska. Its mission is to accelerate the US transition to a lower carbon economy by serving as a reliable domestic supplier of sustainably produced critical minerals.

Adjusted for Nebraska risk as well as stage of development, we value NioCorp at US$23.48/share, or US$15.79 when adjusted for the overall risk of commerciality. Alternatively, assuming a US$425.5m equity raising at US$3.08, we calculate a fully diluted value of US$7.16/share, rising to a peak of US$16.87/share in FY33.

Latest Insights

Metals & Mining | Update

NioCorp Developments — Opportunities and optimisations

Metals & Mining | Initiation

NioCorp Developments — Niobium husking

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Jim Sims

    Chief Communications Officer

  • Mark Smith

    CEO and executive chairman

  • Neal Shah

    CFO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

12.7

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (12.8) (23.1) (63.4)
Relative (15.5) (26.6) (70.6)
52 week high/low US$5.2/US$1.9

Financials

Since our initiation note in January, NioCorp has 1) raised c US$7.6m in debt and equity instruments, 2) de-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange, 3) announced the results of a scoping study, which suggested that the adoption of a Railveyor system could lead to material savings in both capex and opex at its Elk Creek project as well as reducing the underground mine’s carbon footprint, and 4) announced that it has received a preliminary, non-binding indicative financing term sheet from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) with respect to NioCorp’s application for US$800m in debt financing to develop the project. This note updates our valuation of NioCorp for all of the above as well as the construction of an aluminium-scandium master alloy line at the mine, the size and timing of future equity fund-raisings and rare earth oxide pricing assumptions.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 0.0 (7.8) (10.6) (41.3) N/A N/A
2023A 0.0 (37.4) (39.7) (134.3) N/A N/A
2024E 0.0 (16.6) (21.9) (30.8) N/A N/A
2025E 0.0 (10.3) (10.2) (11.2) N/A N/A

Thematics

thematic

Metals & Mining

Shades of the 1970s

thematic

Metals & Mining

Critical minerals: The investment vacuum

samuel-scrimshaw-kp_87tExCwI-unsplash

thematic

Metals & Mining

Lithium’s adolescence

thematic

Metals & Mining

Lepidico: Offer closes, oversubscribed

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free