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NioCorp Developments (TSX: NB)

Last close As at 26/04/2024

USD2.38

▲ −0.08 (−3.25%)

Market capitalisation

USD85m

NioCorp Developments is developing North America’s only niobium/scandium/titanium critical minerals mine and processing facility at Elk Creek in Nebraska. Its mission is to accelerate the US transition to a lower carbon economy by serving as a reliable domestic supplier of sustainably produced critical minerals.

Adjusted for Nebraska risk as well as stage of development, we value NioCorp at US$23.48/share, or US$15.79 when adjusted for the overall risk of commerciality. Alternatively, assuming a US$425.5m equity raising at US$3.08, we calculate a fully diluted value of US$7.16/share, rising to a peak of US$16.87/share in FY33.

Latest Insights

Metals & Mining | Initiation

NioCorp Developments — Niobium husking
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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

  • Jim Sims

    Chief Communications Officer

  • Mark Smith

    CEO and executive chairman

  • Neal Shah

    CFO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

379.9

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (12.8) (21.7) (62.6)
Relative (9.9) (24.1) (69.8)
52 week high/low US$6.4/US$2.3

Financials

NioCorp is developing Elk Creek in Nebraska, which is a polymetallic resource that hosts the highest-grade undeveloped niobium deposit and the largest ‘indicated’ or better terbium resource (a heavy rare earth) in the US, inter alia, and could be in production as early as 2027. A DFS in 2022 calculated a pre-tax IRR of 29.2% and a post-tax NPV (8%) of US$2,350m (US$70.51/share). However, the project now appears poised for a material change in product mix to improve its economics and reduce its previous reliance on scandium as well as an increasingly likely sale of rare earth output to (and strategic investment from) Stellantis. In the meantime, it is in advanced negotiations for up to US$800m in low interest debt financing from the US’s Export-Import Bank.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 0.0 (7.8) (10.6) (41.3) N/A N/A
2023A 0.0 (37.4) (39.7) (134.3) N/A N/A
2024E 0.0 (10.3) (11.2) (9.0) N/A N/A
2025E 0.0 (10.3) (8.4) (4.3) N/A N/A

Research

Metals & Mining

Initiation

NioCorp Developments — Niobium husking

Initiation

Metals & Mining

NioCorp Developments — Niobium husking

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Critical minerals: The investment vacuum
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