Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR3.07
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
EUR22m
Research: Consumer
bet-at-home reported headline figures for H120 ahead of consensus expectations. The results are encouraging given revenue growth in Q220 was better than might have been expected with the regulatory changes (Poland and Switzerland) and the impact of COVID-19 on sports betting. Management has reiterated its guidance for FY20, and the strong financial position makes the prospective dividend yield of 7.0% look attractive.
bet-at-home |
Improving momentum |
H120 headline results |
Travel & leisure |
4 August 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
bet-at-home is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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bet-at-home reported headline figures for H120 ahead of consensus expectations. The results are encouraging given revenue growth in Q220 was better than might have been expected with the regulatory changes (Poland and Switzerland) and the impact of COVID-19 on sports betting. Management has reiterated its guidance for FY20, and the strong financial position makes the prospective dividend yield of 7.0% look attractive.
Year end |
Revenue |
EBITDA** |
EPS** |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
143.4 |
36.2 |
4.65 |
6.50 |
7.5 |
18.7 |
12/19 |
143.3 |
35.2 |
4.26 |
2.00 |
8.2 |
5.7 |
12/20e |
127.9 |
26.1 |
2.79 |
2.40 |
12.5 |
7.0 |
12/21e |
130.4 |
26.5 |
2.83 |
2.88 |
12.3 |
8.3 |
Note: *GGR: gross gaming revenue. **EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
H120: Ahead of consensus
bet-at-home’s Q220 results were ahead of consensus expectations. There was improving momentum with a decline in gross gaming revenue (GGR) of 11.2% yoy versus 13.4% in Q120, albeit against an easier comparative. Excluding the well-flagged revenue losses in Poland and Switzerland, we believe that GGR grew year-on-year, which is impressive given COVID-19’s effect on sports betting. The EBITDA decline of 21.2% was helped by ongoing preservation of marketing firepower, which does not appear to be affecting the number of registered users (5.293m at period end), while continuing to invest in staff. Cash generation appears strong given a net increase in cash and short-term deposits to €54.1m from €48.7m at the end of Q120, leading to a distribution of €2/share.
Consistent guidance for FY20
We leave our forecasts for FY20 of revenue of €127.9m and EBITDA of €26.1m unchanged ahead of the publication of full financial statements on 14 September 2020. Management has reiterated its FY20 guidance of GGR of €120–130m and EBITDA of €23–27m. With an improving outlook for sports betting, eg more football events in H220, including the Champions League games postponed from Q220, and given more than 50% of the forecast FY20 EBITDA has been generated in H120, the forecasts look well supported.
Valuation: 7.0% prospective dividend yield
Having recovered strongly through Q220, the share price has recently pulled back, making the EV/EBITDA for FY20e of 7.2x more attractive. Similarly, the 7.0% prospective dividend yield looks attractive, given the strong financial position of net cash of €54m, with no financial liabilities, versus the market capitalisation of €244m. We continue to believe that a recovery in sports betting and indications of positive regulation changes in Germany, the core market, would be positive catalysts for the share price.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
Year end 31 December, IFRS |
€m |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
|
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
138.7 |
145.4 |
143.4 |
143.3 |
127.9 |
130.4 |
Cost of Sales |
(25.8) |
(27.6) |
(28.2) |
(25.8) |
(23.6) |
(24.1) |
||
Net Gaming Revenue |
112.9 |
117.8 |
115.1 |
117.5 |
104.3 |
106.4 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
33.0 |
36.4 |
36.2 |
35.2 |
26.1 |
26.5 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
31.9 |
35.1 |
34.9 |
33.2 |
24.1 |
24.5 |
|
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
(0.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
31.9 |
34.1 |
34.9 |
33.2 |
24.1 |
24.5 |
||
Net Interest |
2.2 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
34.1 |
36.6 |
35.0 |
33.1 |
24.0 |
24.3 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
34.1 |
35.7 |
35.0 |
33.1 |
24.0 |
24.3 |
Reported tax |
(3.1) |
(2.8) |
(2.4) |
(15.1) |
(4.4) |
(4.5) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
31.0 |
33.8 |
32.6 |
29.9 |
19.6 |
19.8 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
31.0 |
32.8 |
32.6 |
18.0 |
19.6 |
19.8 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
31.0 |
33.8 |
32.6 |
29.9 |
19.6 |
19.8 |
||
Net income (reported) |
31.0 |
32.8 |
32.6 |
18.0 |
19.6 |
19.8 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
441.58 |
481.22 |
464.67 |
425.52 |
278.66 |
282.54 |
EPS - diluted normalised (€) |
|
|
4.42 |
4.81 |
4.65 |
4.26 |
2.79 |
2.83 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
4.42 |
4.68 |
4.65 |
2.56 |
2.79 |
2.83 |
Dividend per share (c) |
750.00 |
750.00 |
650.00 |
200.00 |
240.00 |
288.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
14.0 |
4.8 |
(1.4) |
(0.0) |
(10.8) |
2.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
81.4 |
81.0 |
80.3 |
82.0 |
81.6 |
81.6 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
23.8 |
25.0 |
25.3 |
24.5 |
20.4 |
20.3 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
23.0 |
24.1 |
24.4 |
23.2 |
18.9 |
18.8 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
4.9 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
8.2 |
7.5 |
6.5 |
Intangible Assets |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
3.5 |
||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
140.5 |
120.6 |
99.9 |
87.0 |
96.9 |
101.9 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
47.9 |
16.9 |
20.1 |
30.4 |
33.4 |
36.4 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
82.3 |
94.4 |
70.6 |
47.4 |
54.3 |
56.3 |
||
Customer cash |
9.5 |
7.5 |
7.7 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
||
Other |
0.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(35.1) |
(35.3) |
(34.0) |
(50.9) |
(51.9) |
(52.9) |
Creditors |
(0.5) |
(3.5) |
(3.3) |
(4.2) |
(5.2) |
(6.2) |
||
Short term provisions/ tax liabilities |
(21.4) |
(18.9) |
(19.2) |
(33.7) |
(33.7) |
(33.7) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(13.2) |
(12.8) |
(11.5) |
(13.1) |
(13.1) |
(13.1) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(0.7) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(0.7) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
109.6 |
89.3 |
69.3 |
41.6 |
49.8 |
52.8 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
32.5 |
37.0 |
36.3 |
35.0 |
26.1 |
26.5 |
||
Working capital |
(1.6) |
(3.4) |
(7.5) |
6.0 |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
||
Exceptional & other |
1.5 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
(1.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
0.0 |
(3.4) |
(5.0) |
(10.2) |
(4.4) |
(4.5) |
||
Operating cash flow |
|
|
32.4 |
31.3 |
24.8 |
29.9 |
19.7 |
20.0 |
Capex |
0.0 |
0.1 |
(0.7) |
(2.5) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(1.3) |
(0.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
26.0 |
29.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(15.8) |
(52.6) |
(52.6) |
(45.6) |
(14.0) |
(16.8) |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
41.3 |
7.2 |
(28.5) |
(19.0) |
4.5 |
2.0 |
||
Opening (cash) |
|
|
(48.8) |
(90.1) |
(97.3) |
(68.8) |
(49.8) |
(54.3) |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing (cash) |
|
|
(90.1) |
(97.3) |
(68.8) |
(49.8) |
(54.3) |
(56.3) |
Closing net debt/(cash) ex client money |
|
|
(82.3) |
(94.4) |
(70.6) |
(47.4) |
(54.3) |
(56.3) |
Source: bet-at-home accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Financials
FinLab has recently continued to focus on adding value to its existing fintech investments and expanding its portfolio of blockchain projects through the EOS VC Fund. Its 12-month NAV total return to end-March 2020 was 35.2%, largely driven by the revaluation of its stake in Deposit Solutions. FinLab’s NAV performance post-March 2020 may be assisted by the share price increase of Heliad Equity Partners (HEP), presumably driven by positive stock catalysts at its largest investment, German online broker flatex. HEP’s partial exit from flatex announced in July 2020 increases the likelihood of a higher management fee and potentially a performance fee for 2020 to be charged by Heliad Management, which is fully owned by FinLab.