Founded in 1999, bet-at-home is an online sports betting and gaming company with c 300 employees. It is licensed in Malta and headquartered in Dusseldorf, Germany. Since 2009 bet-at-home has been part of Betclic Everest, a privately owned French online gaming company.
bet-at-home’s (BAH) Q121 results are strong in the context of management guidance for FY21. Trading in the early part of FY21 is likely to be as bad as it gets for BAH. The initial (negative) effects of regulatory changes in Germany will be followed by a more favourable sporting calendar and management’s belief that increased legal certainty from Q321 will help the company to better plan and develop its business. Management is optimistic that regulated companies should be able to take share from the black market, which it believes may be more than 30% of the total market. We upgrade our FY21 EBITDA forecast by 11%, taking it above management’s reiterated guidance. Our DCF-based valuation increases to €51 per share.
According to H2 Gambling Capital, the European online sports betting and gaming market is expected to grow 7.4% CAGR between 2019 and 2024. BAH operates mainly in ‘grey’ markets (no formal regulation but not illegal), which are characterised by strong cash flow, but also carry commensurately higher regulatory risks. Its main market, Germany is becoming fully regulated in FY21.