Last close As at 15/08/2026
GBP1.33
▲ −2.50 (−1.85%)
Market capitalisation
GBP140m
Research: Investment Companies
Baker Steel Resources Trust (BSRT) delivered a strong c 26% NAV total return in the first 10 months of 2025 (10M25), bolstered by operational progress and a more benign capital-raising environment for junior mining projects. Significant contributors were BSRT’s key listed holdings, which at end-October 2025 made up c 33% of its portfolio. Projects of two of its holdings focused on strategic metals, Tungsten West and Blue Moon Metals, were designated EU Critical Raw Materials Act projects. Tungsten West and First Tin also received non-binding letters of interest from the Export-Import Bank of the US (EXIM). The trust enjoyed tailwinds from precious metal pricing in the valuation of its gross revenue royalty in the Bilboes Gold project in Zimbabwe and its holdings in the listed Metals Exploration, Caledonia Mining Corporation and Silver X Mining Corporation.
We believe the financing environment for junior mining projects has improved markedly compared to recent years. This is illustrated by several completed and potential fund-raisings across BSRT’s portfolio. Successful financings, coupled with operational progress, should allow BSRT to de-risk several of its holdings and, in turn, reduce the discount to net present value (NPV) at which the trust currently reflects them in its net asset value (NAV), providing potential valuation tailwinds. BSRT currently trades at a 35% discount to its end-October 2025 NAV, while its top investments were held at discounts to non-risk-adjusted NPVs ranging from 46% to 93% as of end-September 2025, according to BSRT.
In our previous research, we stated that upon full production ramp-up of its mature assets, BSRT’s portfolio should generate significant royalty and dividend income, potentially at a double-digit yield on BSRT’s market capitalisation. We believe this scenario is still valid, but with a revised timeline, for two main reasons. Firstly, lower coking coal prices are slowing the pace of production ramp-up and timing of positive cash flow at Futura Resources. Secondly, the delayed launch of the compact calcination unit and second grinding line by Cemos pushes out its major earnings increase to late 2026. That said, BSRT’s board intends to authorise a buyback programme (within the constraints of financial viability and near-term liquidity issues at Futura) and plans to formulate a more regular dividend policy once BSRT starts receiving significant dividend and royalty income.
NOT INTENDED FOR PERSONS IN THE EEA
Beyond the potential for recurring dividend and royalty income, BSRT’s maturing portfolio
also offers the prospect of potential realisations. BSRT recently generated
Although BSRT’s long-term performance has lagged that of its peers due to its focus on junior mining companies and certain project-specific issues, there has been positive momentum building recently, resulting in a 12-month NAV total return (TR) to end-October 2025 of 39.9%, ahead of the peer average of 33.8% (see Exhibit 4), even if somewhat behind the sterling total return of the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index of 44.4%. We compare BSRT to a peer group consisting of members of the AIC Commodities and Natural Resources sector, which vary in terms of natural resources subsector coverage, preferred form of investment and development stage of holding companies, and this may limit their comparability to BSRT.
A positive low-single-digit percentage contribution to BSRT’s NAV TR in 10M25 came from the 7.7% revaluation of Moroccan cement producer Cemos (26.5% of end-October 2025 NAV) carried out as part of the interim portfolio revaluation. In October 2025, Cemos brought on stream its CCU, which is expected to significantly reduce the company’s production costs and facilitate its growth strategy, which includes the development and marketing of low-CO2 ‘green cement’. This will enable Cemos Group to produce its own low-CO2 and other hydraulic binders (representing up to 70% of production costs), as well as supplementary cementitious materials that can be used in concrete as low-CO2 binders (see our October 2024 note for details). Moreover, Cemos plans to start construction of its second plant (to deploy a second grinding line that it acquired in 2022), which management expects will allow the company to double the production rate from late 2026.
After posting an EBITDA of €9.0m in 2024, Cemos’s management expects the company to generate €8–12m in FY25 (BSRT expects this to be in the lower half of that range due to the delay in commissioning the CCU) and €12–15m in FY26. This compares with the current equity valuation of the project at €122m as of September 2025 (we believe that the company has little to no debt). We calculate that, at the midpoint of the above FY26e EBITDA expectations (which, as mentioned above, do not fully capture the company’s two major investment projects), this valuation is broadly in line with the average EV/EBITDA FY26e multiple of the two listed cement producers in Morocco (LaFargeHolcim Maroc and Ciments du Maroc) based on LSEG Data & Analytics consensus. On completion of its two projects, Cemos Group plans to adopt a progressive dividend policy.
Valuation headwinds for BSRT’s portfolio came from its second-largest holding at end-October
2025 (25.6% of NAV), Futura Resources, the owner of two coking coal mines in Australia.
Although both mines started ramping up production earlier this year, they were affected
by the weaker coal pricing environment, as prices declined from more than
An important factor behind this was lower demand from China, with coking coal imports down 8% y-o-y in H125 due to global growth concerns, according to the Office of the Chief Economist of the Australian government. We believe that this could still translate into a positive operating margin for both projects. However, the coking coal price decline reduces the cash inflow Futura can use for working capital purposes and certain capital expenditure on the infrastructure of the mines during the ramp-up process. BSRT considers that the project is unlikely to generate positive cash flow before 2026 at the earliest. Futura is prioritising the production ramp-up of Fairhill, given its premium coal quality and, in turn, higher price compared to Wilton. It therefore hopes for a narrowing of the discount at which Futura’s coal is sold compared to the Premium Low Volatile Hard Coking Coal Index. The company aims to ramp up the combined run-of-mine (ROM) production to a monthly rate of 145k tonnes, implying a rate of 1.75Mtpa by end-2025 and to 4Mtpa by 2030. This would translate into saleable product coal of 0.45Mtpa in 2025, 0.96Mtpa in 2026 and 1.9Mtpa by 2030.
The trust extended a
Futura’s management considers the recent price weakness as temporary, given that some
of the higher-cost producers are curbing production and given the combination of medium-term
supply constraints and expected strong demand for seaborne imports, most notably from
India. Prices recovered from a low of c
Futura’s management currently expects an EBITDA of A$60m upon full production ramp-up at its long-term price assumption, which we understand (based on a discussion with BSRT’s manager) is broadly in line with the above-mentioned consensus expectations.
Several of BSRT’s top holdings have exposure to gold and silver and have benefited from the recent favourable market backdrop for precious metals. Below we discuss four such businesses, which in aggregate represented c 22% of BSRT’s end-October 2025 NAV.
The carrying value of BSRT’s 1% net smelter royalty in the fully permitted Bilboes
Gold project in Zimbabwe (developed by CMCL) increased to £10.2m at end-October 2025,
from £8.4m at end-2024. The latest preliminary economic assessment (PEA) assumes mining
potential of 1.5m ounces over 10 years at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of
The share price of CMCL increased by c 192% in 10M25. The company raised its FY25
production guidance for its Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe to 75.5–79.5koz from 74.0–78.0koz
previously and stated that it expects profitability to be significantly ahead of market
expectations. It reported a 52% y-o-y increase in revenue to
Metals Exploration, the share price of which went up by 143% in 10M25, recently reduced
its FY25 Runruno production forecast to 65–70koz from 70–75koz previously (and compared
to 83koz in 2024) due to a limited pause in gold processing in September due to a
cyanide contamination of the gold processing circuit, and the subsequent power and
processing disruption caused by Typhoon Fung-wong (Uwan) in November. The company
later reported that power was restored on the evening on 14 November, ahead of initial
expectations. Runruno’s AISC for the first nine months of 2025 (9M25) stood at
As the company expects the Runruno mine’s resources to be exhausted in the coming years, it has been active on the M&A front lately, supported by its debt-free balance sheet. In January 2025, it acquired the La India gold project in Nicaragua, with initial target production of 145koz per year and a potential life of mine (LOM) of over 12 years; the La India gold project became its key development project to replace the cash flow from Runruno. The company’s management highlighted, upon the release of its Q325 results, that the development of La India is progressing well, with construction slightly ahead of schedule and on budget, and the project is on track for first production in Q426.
In August 2024, Metals Exploration acquired a 72.5% stake in Yamang Mineral Corporation and a 100% stake in Yamang Mineral Corporate Pte, which are part of the exploration business YMC Group. This provides the company with access to the Abra Tenement covering c 16,200ha, with multiple prospective targets in both gold and copper. Abra is a district-scale exploration play in a prolific Cordillera gold belt, which can be viewed as a large, longer-dated growth option for Metals Exploration.
In August 2025, Metals Exploration announced the grant of the Dupax Exploration Tenement permit in the Philippines, covering c 3,100ha. Interestingly, BSRT highlighted that if the exploration of this tenement leads to the discovery of economic resources, the mined ore could potentially extend the ore processing operations at Runruno (as it is located c 20km south-west of the facility), leading to an enhanced value of both projects. The company reported that the drill pads at the Dupax project suffered damage due to the typhoon, but that the project is expected to resume within the next two weeks.
Silver X Mining Corporation, the TSX-V-listed company holding the Nueva Recuperada
project in Peru, saw its share price rise c 145% in sterling terms in 10M25. In February
2025, Silver X announced a new mineral resource estimate for the Nueva Recuperada
property, with an increase in measured and indicated resources from 3.6m to 4.26m
tonnes, and a rise in inferred resources from 11.89m to 17.18m tonnes. A major contributor
to this higher estimate was the first-time inclusion of the nearby Plata Mining Unit
containing 5.81moz of silver equivalent (AgEq) in the indicated category and 26moz
of AgEq in the inferred category. In August 2025, the company announced a new PEA
(replacing the previous one published in 2023) outlining the construction of a new
plant to process the ore from the current Tangana silver mine (which also mines gold,
zinc and lead) and the concurrent expansion of the existing plant to process ore from
the Plata Mining Unit. The PEA assumed an initial capital expenditure of
During September 2025, Silver X completed a private placement of units comprising
one common share and half a warrant to acquire shares at
BSRT’s portfolio includes three projects focused on commodities that may be considered strategic in the current geopolitical environment.
Blue Moon Metals owns three brownfield projects: the Nussir copper-gold-silver project
(originally held directly by BSRT), the Sulitjelma copper-zinc-gold-silver project
(also known as NSG) in Norway and the Blue Moon zinc-gold-silver-copper project in
the US (California). The company’s goal is to produce 50k tonnes per year of copper
equivalent at a first-quartile AISC over the three mines within five years (see Exhibit 6). Blue Moon expects that more than 80% of the capital costs of its projects can be
financed via non-equity instruments, including debt, royalties and streams. During
September 2025, Blue Moon undertook a private placement of shares at
While Blue Moon Metals’ share price has remained broadly stable year to date, its carrying value in BSRT’s NAV increased from £7.2m at end-2024 before the completion of the sale of Nussir to Blue Moon Metals (£6.86m for Nussir, £0.36m for Blue Moon shares) to £10.1m at end-October 2025. We understand that the revaluation mostly came from the unwinding of the 30% discount initially booked to account for the lock-up and transaction risk. As of end-September 2025, BSRT still applied an average 9.5% discount to the closing bid price to its stake in Blue Moon, as 50% of its holdings in Blue Moon Metals remained subject to lock-up. Blue Moon Metals is seeking a NASDAQ listing early next year.
The company reported operational progress across all three projects. Nussir acquired a local company that held the majority of the infrastructure required for
the project, and the construction of the exploration decline started in June 2025.
The results from the FS update of Nussir are expected in the first quarter of 2026.
In August 2025, Blue Moon Metals announced that it had entered into a memorandum of
understanding with Hartree Partners and funds managed by Oaktree Capital Management,
for a financing package of up to
Based on our discussion with BSRT’s management, we understand that this financing
would cover the entire initial capital cost of the project. The finance package would
consist of a
The company also announced a PEA for its Blue Moon project in March 2025, which, based on an initial capital cost of
Finally, Blue Moon Metals announced a maiden mineral resource estimate for the Sulitjelma project, including 17m tonnes grading 1.06% copper and 0.21% zinc in the inferred category over three deposits.
Tungsten West, the AIM-listed developer of the tungsten and tin Hemerdon Mine in the
UK in which BSRT has an 8.5% stake (on a fully diluted basis), announced in August
2025 the results of its definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the restart of the
mining operations (Tungsten West acquired the mine in December 2019 from the administrators
of the previous owner, Wolf Minerals). The DFS assumes a base case with an 11-year
LOM, followed by fours years of subsequent stockpile reclaim and an additional 12
years of ongoing premium aggregate sales. That said, Tungsten West sees potential
to extend the mine’s life to over 40 years. At a tungsten price of
We note that this funding need could be fully covered by the financial support of
up to
The company notes that the Hemerdon Mine is now fully permitted and, once in production, could potentially account for c 20% of the global supply of primary tungsten from outside of China. This is particularly important given the threat of export restrictions, such as those introduced in February 2025 by China for five critical minerals including tungsten (which were subsequently lifted), and the fact that China’s tungsten mining sector is experiencing headwinds from ageing operations and declining ore grades.
As a broad reference to investor appetite for similar listed companies, it is worth
looking at Almonty Industries, which specialises in acquiring and optimising distressed
and underperforming tungsten operations and assets. Almonty Industries expects to
reach annual production capacity of c 584k of tungsten oxide (WO3) by 2027 (Panasqueira after expansion (Level 4) and Sangdong Phase II) and its market
capitalisation currently stands at
The share price of First Tin remained broadly stable throughout most of 2025 until
late September, when positive momentum started building, driven by, among other things,
a rising tin price and a revised mineral resource estimate for its Gottesberg project.
This saw First Tin’s share price rise by 38% in 10M25. Further catalysts came in early
November, when First Tin received a non-binding letter of interest from EXIM for funding
of up to
General disclaimer and copyright
This report has been commissioned by Baker Steel Resources Trust and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Baker Steel Resources Trust. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.
Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.
Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.
No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.
Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.
Copyright 2025 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).
Australia
Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.
New Zealand
The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.
United Kingdom
This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or sol icitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.
This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.
United States
Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
London │ New York │ Frankfurt
20 Red Lion Street
London, WC1R 4PS
United Kingdom
Research: Consumer
Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) H126 trading update shows a strong performance by the core business with an accompanying improvement in operating margin. This is impressive given the comparatives from the two prior years when the most recent editions of its major intellectual properties were released. This also suggests good ongoing sales of new products from each of these properties, as well as other new products this year. We increase our FY26e profit by c 12% and raise our forecast dividend to £5.20 per share to be consistent with FY25 levels, despite our lower forecast profit.