NCC Group — H126 shows more focus and more quality

NCC Group (LSE: NCC)

Last close As at 05/08/2026

GBP1.42

−0.80 (−0.56%)

Market capitalisation

GBP405m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

NCC Group — H126 shows more focus and more quality

H126 results show that the changes at NCC Group go far beyond its divestment programme, making the investment opportunity more interesting than investors might realise. An increased focus on Cyber means that revenue growth is returning, with increasing predictability. This is not just through growth in managed services but, more importantly, as a result of moving from transactional to outcome-based customer relationships. We expect future valuations to reflect not only the higher quantity but also the enhanced quality of earnings.

Written by

Ross Jobber

Analyst

Technology

QuickView

12 June 2026

Price 141.20p
Market cap £404m
Price Performance
Share details
Code NCC
Listing LSE

Shares in issue

284.3m

Net cash/(debt) as at May 2026

£230.0m

Business description

The group provides independent full-service cyber resilience services on a global basis.

Bull points

  • Significant re-focusing of the business around cyber security with only 50% of addressable market currently penetrated.
  • £73bn market forecast to growth at 8–10% CAGR to 2030.
  • Opportunities to add new services from AI disruption.

Bear points

  • Uncertainty surrounding the nature of future AI disruption.
  • Execution risk associated with managed services.
  • Historically inconsistent financial performance.

Analysts

Ross Jobber
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Dan Ridsdale
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE-OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

Financials

The H126 results were aligned with the April trading update. H126 revenues were £151.3m, up c 5% CER y-o-y. Cyber revenues rose 5.9% to £118.4m, including 12.5% growth in UK/APAC in the period. Gross margins were 45.9% (H125: 43.2%) with a record Cyber gross margin of 38.4% (H125: 35.2%). Adjusted EBITDA was £23.5m, with Cyber adjusted EBITDA increasing to £8.3m (H125: £3.6m). The interim dividend was unchanged at 1.5p/share. Net debt (excluding leases) as at March 2026 was £10.2m, and, following the sale of Escode, net cash as at May 2026 was £230m. The board intends to commence a £170m tender offer followed by a new £15m share buyback. Guidance is for mid- to low-single-digit Cyber Security FY26 revenue growth and for FY26 adjusted EBITDA margin of c 5.5–7.5% (H126: 7.0%). FY27 and FY28 Cyber revenue growth is expected to be mid-single-digit, with mid-teens adjusted EBITDA margins by the end of FY28. Management expects to generate £25m in gross margin and overheads by FY28.

Strategy

Investors should note that the group’s new focus is not only restoring top-line growth but, just as importantly, is building greater quality into future earnings. Customer relationships are deepening as a result of more outcome-based agreements, which in turn is driving both growth and predictability of earnings. Consulting and Managed Services revenue now represents 55% of Cyber revenue.

Valuation

AI is expanding the enterprise attack surface and highlighting the importance of robust cyber solutions over simply adhering to IT best practices. Thus, we expect the market increasingly to realise that AI is more of a tailwind than a threat to NCC and value it accordingly.

Source: Company data, LSEG Data & Analytics. EBITDA, PBT and EPS are adjusted for share based payments.

Consensus estimates

Year end Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) DPS (p) P/E (x) EV/sales (x) Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x)
9/25 305.4 43.7 18.7 4.70 4.70 30.0 0.6 3.3 4.0
9/26e 297.1 39.3 24.1 5.90 3.90 23.9 0.6 2.8 4.4
9/27e 289.8 35.3 20.3 5.00 4.00 28.2 0.6 2.8 4.9

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright 2026 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or sol icitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

More on NCC Group

View All

Latest from the TMT sector

View All TMT content

Research: Healthcare

OSE Immunotherapeutics — KOL event reinforces Tedopi’s promise

OSE Immunotherapeutics’ key opinion leader (KOL) event reinforced the clinical rationale for Tedopi, its lead off-the-shelf neoepitope-based cancer vaccine, which is, to our knowledge, the most advanced therapeutic cancer vaccine in the clinic. The KOLs highlighted that immunotherapy remains central to advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but durable benefit is achieved by only a minority of patients, leaving a clear need for additional immune-mediated approaches. It was reminded that Tedopi’s mechanism is differentiated, having been designed to activate tumour specific T cells in HLA-A2 positive patients, and is supported by prior survival, quality-of-life and safety data in NSCLC. The recent positive TEDOVA results in ovarian cancer (OC) also broadened the narrative, suggesting that Tedopi may have clinical utility beyond the core focus in second-line NSCLC.

Continue Reading
Cookie Policy Overview
Edison Group

This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping us understand which section of the website you find more interesting and useful. See our Cookie Policy for more information.

Strictly necessary and functional

These cookies are used to deliver our website and content. Strictly necessary cookies relate to our hosting environment, and functional cookies are used to facilitate social logins, social sharing and rich-media content embeds.

Advertising

Advertising Cookies collect information about your browsing habits such as the pages you visit and links you follow. These audience insights are used to make our website more relevant.

Performance

Performance Cookies collect anonymous information designed to help us improve the site and respond to the needs of our audiences. We use this information to make our site faster, more relevant and improve the navigation for all users.