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Research: Financials
Attica Bank reported a loss of €105.0m in FY21 (FY20: €306.4m), which included a €55.4m write-down from loan securitisation in Q421. Loan impairments remain high and were 1.6% of loans in FY21, while the cost income ratio was 147% (FY20: 100%). More positively, income trends were good (Q421 total revenue and interest income rose 104% and 53% q-o-q respectively). The various capital actions taken by management (including share issues and securitisations) have improved the balance sheet, which had a CET1 of 8.3% (4.9% fully loaded) versus 3.1% (-0.4%) at the end of FY20. Non-performing exposure (NPE) remains high at 33.6% (FY20: 41.7%). Despite improvements, Attica needs further capital actions to gain the scale needed for it to be profitable. We suspended forecasts in July 2021 until further clarity on the outcome of these capital actions.
Written by
Attica Bank |
FY21 results and capital actions progress |
FY21 results |
Banks |
31 May 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Attica Bank is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Attica Bank reported a loss of €105.0m in FY21 (FY20: €306.4m), which included a €55.4m write-down from loan securitisation in Q421. Loan impairments remain high and were 1.6% of loans in FY21, while the cost income ratio was 147% (FY20: 100%). More positively, income trends were good (Q421 total revenue and interest income rose 104% and 53% q-o-q respectively). The various capital actions taken by management (including share issues and securitisations) have improved the balance sheet, which had a CET1 of 8.3% (4.9% fully loaded) versus 3.1% (-0.4%) at the end of FY20. Non-performing exposure (NPE) remains high at 33.6% (FY20: 41.7%). Despite improvements, Attica needs further capital actions to gain the scale needed for it to be profitable. We suspended forecasts in July 2021 until further clarity on the outcome of these capital actions.
Year end |
Pre-provision profit (€m) |
PBT |
EPS |
ROE |
P/E |
Price/NTA* |
12/18 |
38.8 |
4.8 |
(0.01) |
(0.4) |
N/A |
0.08 |
12/19 |
1.6 |
(23.6) |
0.01 |
1.0 |
N/A |
0.08 |
12/20 |
0.1 |
(285.8) |
(0.66) |
(146.0) |
N/A |
0.22 |
12/21 |
(25.1) |
(104.4) |
(0.09) |
(32.0) |
N/A |
0.33 |
Note: *NTA = net tangible assets.
FY21 core revenue +7% year-on-year
Attica’s FY21 core revenue grew 7% y-o-y, while Q421 core revenue grew 46% yoy and 104% q-o-q. Fee income has been growing strongly since posting a net loss in Q420, while interest income picked up strongly in Q421 (+53% q-o-q); the trend in the latter has been affected by the securitisations and loan transfers. However, operating expenses climbed by 58% q-o-q in Q421 and, although there were some one-offs, clearly this needs to be brought under control. Attica has announced in Q122 another voluntary redundancy plan to which 14% of employees have adhered.
More capital actions planned
Among the actions announced are sale of the point of sale (POS) business (estimated to add 80bp to CET1 by management) and active utilisation of investment property (30bp). The bank’s CET1 and capital adequacy ratio (CAR) are currently above the statutory requirements (8% and 10.7%, respectively). However, fresh equity will likely be needed to be able to deliver on management’s aim of doubling the balance sheet in three years and a return to profitability.
Key shareholder support
Three key shareholders (Hellenic Financial Stability Fund, TMEDE and Rinoa/Ellington Solutions), which own 87.5% of the bank and injected €210m in 2021, wrote to the bank in April 2022 stating that they are willing to further invest up to €365m in equity based on terms and conditions that include reducing the NPE ratio to below 5% and Attica returning to profitability. The letter states that they believe that neither shareholders nor management yet have the ‘full picture’ of the losses that will arise from the reduction of the NPEs, as the ‘relevant preparatory work is still in progress’.
FY21 results: Progress and pain
Revenue is growing
Attica’s FY21 and especially Q421 results still reflect the ongoing balance sheet clean-up costs, transformation costs and the suboptimal size of the bank. On the one hand, Q421 core revenue rose 46% y-o-y and 104% q-o-q. This was helped by an interest margin recovery driven by new loan business. On the other hand, operating expenses ballooned to €27.6m in Q421 and there was exceptionally heavy provisioning (4.64% of net loans) accompanied by a €55.4m loss relating to losses on loan transfer from the last securitisation tranches sold – this was 95% of the mezzanine and junior notes of the Omega securitisation.
€3bn in loans securitised so far
The Omega securitisation mezzanine and junior notes amounted to €70m and €585m, respectively, and were sold on 4 October 2021. The senior tranche was sold earlier in Q321 with a value of €630m for a combined book value of €1,285m loans in the Omega securitisation. Since December 2016, Attica has securitised a total of €3bn in loans. This compares to net loans of €1,326m on the balance sheet at the end of FY21. The NPE ratio is still 33.6% under IFRS rules and therefore further work needs to be done. Attica’s key shareholders have confirmed that they are willing to invest up to €365m to clean up the bank, provided that the additional money takes the NPE ratio below 5% as well as allowing the bank to return to profitability. The company is currently reviewing its loan book to further assess the asset quality and provisioning needs.
Heracles delay
There has been a delay in Attica submitting its recent securitisations (Omega, Astir 1 and Astir 2) for the Greek government guarantee scheme Heracles 2 (Heracles Asset Protection Scheme, HAPS). The government guarantee helps banks to sell securitisations to investors and can provide some capital relief in exchange for a fee payable to the government for the guarantee. Management currently says it is still not possible to quantify the amount of the fee, capital relief and the net benefit of submitting the securitisations to the HAPS. Before they can be included in the scheme, these securitisations need to garner ratings by the credit agencies with the minimum acceptable rating being BB-, which is the same as the Greek sovereign. The delay is due to the complexity of the assessment of the value of the securitisations and because management notes that there is a deterioration in the benefits of the programme mainly due to the increase in the cost of the government guarantee in Q122 (compared to 2021), which is based on the spread of Greek bonds.
More capital needed
Following the successful €240m capital injection and despite the sizeable asset write-downs in Q421, Attica’s capital ratios are once again above statutory requirements. The statutory FY21 CET1 is 8.3% (the requirement is 8.0%) and total capital is at 11.8% (10.7% required). The fully loaded FY21 CET1 is only 4.9% and this looks light in our opinion.
Attica’s strategic plan calls for doubling the balance sheet and increasing product penetration (with a focus on bancassurance) to increase the revenue base to allow the bank to become profitable. Even without factoring in further write-downs, Attica would clearly need to increase its capital base to be able to expand the balance sheet so significantly. Net loans grew 2% q-o-q in Q421, equivalent to 8% annually. Deposit funding at this stage seems ample at €2.9bn and therefore liquidity is not an issue. The key challenges are as aforementioned: balance sheet clean-up and then growing the business.
The current shareholding structure following the various capital actions is as follows: Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) 62.9%, Fund of Engineers and Public Works Contractors (TMEDE) 14.7%, Rinoa/Ellington Solutions 9.9% and National Electronic Social Security Agency (EFKA) 10.3%. The free float is now 2%.
Exhibit 1: Quarterly progression (selected figures)
€000s |
Q420 |
Q1021 |
Q221 |
Q321 |
Q421 |
y-o-y% |
q-o-q% |
Net interest income |
12,489 |
14,169 |
14,615 |
6,611 |
10,090 |
-19% |
53% |
Net fees and commissions |
(863) |
752 |
1,256 |
1,693 |
6,836 |
-892% |
304% |
Core revenue |
11,626 |
14,921 |
15,871 |
8,304 |
16,926 |
46% |
104% |
Other operating income |
2,349 |
(4,827) |
386 |
4,105 |
(2,351) |
-200% |
-157% |
Total revenue |
13,976 |
10,094 |
16,258 |
12,410 |
14,574 |
4% |
17% |
Operating expense |
(18,858) |
(15,788) |
(17,567) |
(17,503) |
(27,611) |
46% |
58% |
Pre-provision profit |
(4,883) |
(5,695) |
(1,309) |
(5,092) |
(13,038) |
167% |
156% |
Losses on securitisation loan transfer |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(55,401) |
||
Impairment charge for loan losses |
(226,607) |
(2,324) |
(3,079) |
(2,169) |
(15,201) |
-93% |
601% |
Profit before tax |
(252,066) |
(8,208) |
(4,338) |
(7,265) |
(84,563) |
-66% |
1064% |
Net loans |
1,600,946 |
1,627,186 |
1,679,771 |
1,294,398 |
1,325,532 |
-17% |
2% |
DTA |
421,357 |
423,495 |
414,307 |
261,931 |
267,446 |
-36% |
2% |
Assets |
3,579,549 |
3,647,565 |
3,647,151 |
3,503,961 |
3,666,086 |
2% |
5% |
Client Deposits |
2,801,439 |
2,851,646 |
2,896,037 |
2,877,199 |
2,920,578 |
4% |
2% |
Tier 2 debt securities |
99,781 |
99,794 |
99,807 |
99,820 |
99,833 |
0% |
0% |
Equity |
206,689 |
201,476 |
187,535 |
181,063 |
331,496 |
58% |
83% |
Ratios |
|||||||
NIM % financial assets |
1.85% |
2.00% |
2.03% |
1.03% |
1.53% |
||
Impairment charge % net loans |
57.62% |
0.58% |
0.74% |
0.58% |
4.64% |
||
NPE % gross loans |
41.7% |
44.2% |
45.3% |
34.1% |
33.6% |
||
Net impaired % net tangible assets |
335.1% |
357.6% |
434.7% |
317.0% |
135.1% |
||
LLA % NPE coverage |
41.7% |
44.2% |
45.3% |
34.1% |
33.6% |
||
CET 1 Statutory |
4.9% |
3.7% |
3.1% |
12.1% |
8.3% |
Source: Attica Bank
Valuation and forecasts need clarification
For the time being, we are not publishing forecasts or a valuation for Attica. The bank is going through a truly transformative period, and currently heightened uncertainty regarding the securitisations and the anticipated capital raising makes forecasting and valuation difficult. Although management has been taking important steps to improve its capital, the bank’s capital needs are sizeable when compared to the current market capitalisation of €89m. The amount and timing of the capital raising is likely to affect shareholder dilution (which could be significant) as well as affect the bank’s growth plans. Failure to raise sufficient equity could lead to various outcomes including the bank being sold at a price lower than the current valuation. On the other hand, further successful securitisations and capital injections could see the bank being reborn focused on a high-growth loan segment, with a new digital platform and a cleaned-up balance sheet.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€000s, year-end 31 December, IFRS |
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY20 |
FY21 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||
Net interest income |
69,290 |
43,852 |
50,754 |
45,485 |
Net fees and commissions |
6,956 |
6,540 |
1,577 |
10,537 |
Core revenue |
76,246 |
50,392 |
52,331 |
56,022 |
Other operating income |
51,741 |
21,214 |
16,862 |
(2,687) |
Revenues |
127,987 |
71,606 |
69,193 |
53,336 |
Cost |
(89,192) |
(70,043) |
(69,122) |
(78,469) |
Pre-provision profit |
38,795 |
1,563 |
71 |
(25,134) |
Impairment charge for loan losses |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(55,401) |
Securitisation loan transfer losses |
(27,527) |
(24,202) |
(264,502) |
(22,773) |
Impairment other assets |
(3,191) |
(2,050) |
(21,530) |
(1,558) |
Staff leaving expenses |
(1,172) |
(212) |
||
Associates |
(3,329) |
1,042 |
1,286 |
704 |
Profit before tax |
4,748 |
(23,647) |
(285,846) |
(104,374) |
Taxation |
(7,105) |
28,645 |
(20,564) |
(671) |
Non-controlling interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Preference dividend |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Attributable income |
(2,357) |
4,998 |
(306,410) |
(105,045) |
Shares ranking (m) |
461 |
461 |
461 |
1,224 |
EPS (€) |
(0.01) |
0.01 |
(0.66) |
(0.09) |
Underlying PBT |
(25,038) |
(23,647) |
(285,846) |
(104,374) |
BALANCE SHEET |
||||
Cash and balances with central bank |
60,860 |
138,097 |
173,778 |
477,778 |
Due from Financial institutions |
9,516 |
67,437 |
52,359 |
77,858 |
Investment securities |
922,117 |
955,200 |
981,061 |
1,182,328 |
Loans to customers |
1,592,144 |
1,547,494 |
1,600,946 |
1,325,532 |
Associates |
3,427 |
4,469 |
4,323 |
5,077 |
Property, plant and equipment |
31,646 |
48,468 |
47,831 |
40,622 |
Investment property |
57,862 |
58,340 |
56,704 |
57,491 |
Intangible assets |
50,413 |
52,893 |
57,673 |
57,942 |
Deferred tax assets |
420,357 |
449,734 |
420,281 |
267,446 |
Assets held for sale |
0 |
0 |
183,302 |
172,936 |
Other assets |
202,162 |
205,604 |
215 |
1,077 |
Total Assets |
3,350,504 |
3,527,736 |
3,578,473 |
3,666,087 |
Deposits from financial institutions |
424,683 |
262,456 |
401,177 |
222,658 |
Customer deposits |
2,281,875 |
2,608,157 |
2,801,439 |
2,920,578 |
Debt securities issued |
99,676 |
36,594 |
99,781 |
99,833 |
Defined benefit obligations |
12,925 |
99,729 |
6,015 |
6,275 |
Other provisions |
0 |
11,667 |
23,917 |
22,525 |
Other liabilities |
40,449 |
15,050 |
36,818 |
62,721 |
Total Liabilities |
2,859,608 |
3,033,653 |
3,369,147 |
3,334,590 |
Total Shareholder's Equity |
490,896 |
494,081 |
209,325 |
331,496 |
CAPITAL |
||||
Common Equity tier 1 (transitional) |
431,148 |
284,392 |
148,312 |
234,646 |
Total Capital |
530,824 |
384,121 |
248,041 |
334,375 |
Risk-weighted assets |
3,204,638 |
3,222,484 |
3,005,579 |
2,825,954 |
CET1 ratio % (transitional) |
13.5% |
8.8% |
4.9% |
8.3% |
Total Capital ratio % |
16.6% |
11.9% |
8.3% |
11.8% |
CET1 ratio % (fully loaded) |
8.9% |
8.1% |
-0.4% |
4.9% |
ASSET QUALITY |
||||
Neither past due nor impaired/ stage 1 |
710,127 |
738,764 |
776,077 |
820,136 |
Past due but not impaired/stage 2 |
379,012 |
238,917 |
325,464 |
135,843 |
Impaired/ stage 3 |
755,999 |
850,698 |
885,402 |
699,327 |
Gross loans |
1,845,138 |
1,828,379 |
1,986,943 |
1,655,306 |
Impairment allowance |
252,944 |
280,885 |
385,998 |
329,774 |
Non-performing exposure as % |
41.0% |
46.5% |
41.7% |
33.6% |
NPE cash coverage |
33.5% |
33.0% |
42.5% |
45.5% |
PROFITABILITY |
||||
Cost/Revenues |
69.7% |
97.8% |
99.9% |
147.1% |
Loan impairments % net loans |
1.45% |
1.54% |
16.80% |
1.56% |
Return on average equity |
(0.4%) |
1.0% |
(146.0%) |
(32.0%) |
Book value per share (€) |
1.06 |
1.07 |
0.45 |
0.27 |
Tangible equity per share (€) |
0.95 |
0.96 |
0.33 |
0.22 |
Source: Attica Bank
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