Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Research: Energy & Resources
Spirit Energy has farmed-in to 50% of Hurricane’s Lincoln and Warwick licences covering the Greater Warwick Area (GWA). The farm-in is intended to accelerate the de-risking and monetisation of GWA, adding a new leg to the Hurricane business model that will run in parallel with the development of the Greater Lancaster Area (GLA). Under the transaction, Hurricane will retain a 50% working interest in GWA licences in return for a net carry of $137.2m through a two-phase initial work programme and $150–250m contingent carry on net GWA full field development (FFD) expense. Based on company-estimated GWA gross 2P reserves of 500mmbbls expected to be unlocked by the FFD, the combined carry value is $1.2/boe to $1.6/boe. The transaction structure differs materially from our assumed 60% working interest dilution through farm-out for Lincoln (250mmbbl development case) and a post-carry NPV/bbl of $5.0/boe ($2.5/boe risked) in our last published valuation of 81p/share. We expect to revise our risked Lincoln valuation ($241m) to reflect the details of the transaction, which include accelerated production via tie-back to Lancaster, not currently reflected in our valuation. We believe today’s deal materially accelerates the de-risking of Hurricane’s Rona Ridge asset base both in terms of GWA resource but also the ability to focus Lancaster EPS cash-flows on fast-track appraisal of the GLA resource base.
Written by
Hurricane Energy |
First thoughts: Spirit Energy farm-in |
Spirit Energy farm-in |
Oil & gas |
3 September 2018 |
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Hurricane Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Spirit Energy has farmed-in to 50% of Hurricane’s Lincoln and Warwick licences covering the Greater Warwick Area (GWA). The farm-in is intended to accelerate the de-risking and monetisation of GWA, adding a new leg to the Hurricane business model that will run in parallel with the development of the Greater Lancaster Area (GLA). Under the transaction, Hurricane will retain a 50% working interest in GWA licences in return for a net carry of $137.2m through a two-phase initial work programme and $150–250m contingent carry on net GWA full field development (FFD) expense. Based on company-estimated GWA gross 2P reserves of 500mmbbls expected to be unlocked by the FFD, the combined carry value is $1.2/boe to $1.6/boe. The transaction structure differs materially from our assumed 60% working interest dilution through farm-out for Lincoln (250mmbbl development case) and a post-carry NPV/bbl of $5.0/boe ($2.5/boe risked) in our last published valuation of 81p/share. We expect to revise our risked Lincoln valuation ($241m) to reflect the details of the transaction, which include accelerated production via tie-back to Lancaster, not currently reflected in our valuation. We believe today’s deal materially accelerates the de-risking of Hurricane’s Rona Ridge asset base both in terms of GWA resource but also the ability to focus Lancaster EPS cash-flows on fast-track appraisal of the GLA resource base.
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
PBT |
Operating |
Capex |
Net cash |
12/16 |
0.0 |
(6.4) |
(5.6) |
(63.5) |
101.5 |
12/17 |
0.0 |
(7.0) |
(8.1) |
(265.7) |
158.0 |
12/18e |
0.0 |
(25.8) |
(25.8) |
(191.1) |
(58.8) |
12/19e |
115.0 |
(28.0) |
0.4 |
(101.1) |
(159.4) |
*Note change in reporting currency to US$ from £. 2016 results re-stated in US$.
GWA farm-in components
Spirit Energy’s farm-in to GWA is in three phases. First, starting in 2019 Hurricane is to be carried through its share of a $180.6m gross, three-well programme accelerating the exploration of Warwick and appraisal of Lincoln and preparation works for the tie-in of one or more producers to the Aoka Mizu. A rig has already been contracted, providing visibility on 2019 drilling catalysts. Contingent on phase one success, in 2020 Hurricane will be 50% carried for its share of an estimated $187.5m gross programme to tie-back one GWA well to the Aoka Mizu, including tie-in to the WOSP gas export system: a key requirement for enhancing Aoka Mizu throughput to 40kbod. Finally, there will be a further carry contribution by Spirit Energy of $150–250m for Hurricane’s share of GWA FFD costs.
Valuation: Market focus on EPS on track for H119
Our last published valuation stands at a RENAV of 81.0p/share of which Lancaster EPS constitutes 34.7p/share. Our last published valuation is based on $70/bbl long-term (2022) Brent.
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Research: Investment Companies
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