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Research: TMT
YouGov’s pre-close update indicates trading in line to meet the full-year target of its growth plan, with a heavier weighting towards H2. This reflects several larger, more strategic projects won by Data Products and Custom Research over autumn and winter to date, which will start to contribute in H221 and provide good momentum into FY22. H121 results will show a pick-up in Data Services as clients looked to tactical projects to inform their marketing strategies. Our full-year forecasts are unchanged except for a minor adjustment to the share count. YouGov is valued towards the top of its peer set, reflecting its strong market positioning, attractive cash generation and cash-positive balance sheet.
YouGov |
Data Services takes up the H121 running |
Half-year trading update |
Media |
29 January 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
YouGov is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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YouGov’s pre-close update indicates trading in line to meet the full-year target of its growth plan, with a heavier weighting towards H2. This reflects several larger, more strategic projects won by Data Products and Custom Research over autumn and winter to date, which will start to contribute in H221 and provide good momentum into FY22. H121 results will show a pick-up in Data Services as clients looked to tactical projects to inform their marketing strategies. Our full-year forecasts are unchanged except for a minor adjustment to the share count. YouGov is valued towards the top of its peer set, reflecting its strong market positioning, attractive cash generation and cash-positive balance sheet.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
EV/EBITDA |
P/E |
Yield |
07/19 |
136.5 |
20.4 |
13.8 |
4.0 |
33.6 |
78.8 |
0.4 |
07/20 |
152.4 |
24.7 |
15.7 |
5.0 |
28.4 |
69.4 |
0.5 |
07/21e |
163.0 |
28.5 |
17.2 |
5.5 |
27.6 |
63.2 |
0.5 |
07/22e |
175.0 |
34.2 |
20.8 |
6.5 |
23.7 |
52.3 |
0.6 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
H2 to see greater impact from new, large projects
The implied shift in mix for H121 towards Data Services will affect the reported margin, as both gross and operating margin are lower than those achieved for Data Products (FY20: 83% vs 91% at the gross level and 35% to 19% at the operating line). By the full year, we would expect that this margin impact would be reversed by the new, larger projects coming through. These are likely to be along the lines of the previously announced contract with a major German financial services company, so a combination of custom research and connected data product subscription, playing to YouGov’s strengths in permissioned data. Good progress is also being made with the initiatives described in our note on the capital markets day in November, notably the YouGov Safe aggregated data proposition.
Forecasts unchanged
FY21 results will be affected by a technical change to the accounting treatment of the share-based payments (non-cash). Under the previous scheme, charges were weighted to the end of the five-year period, whereas for this scheme the accounting will be smoothed. This is built into our modelling, but the level may be higher due to the increase in the share price. We will revisit this with the interims in March. Our forecasts are unchanged at this point.
Valuation: Towards the top end of the global peer set
YouGov’s valuation multiples remain towards the top end of the global peer set, where the more data and analytics-weighted groups trade at a clear differential. YouGov’s rating also reflects the group’s strong market positioning, attractive cash generation (104% conversion of adjusted EBITDA in FY20) and cash-positive balance sheet.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'000s |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
||
Year end 31 July |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
116,559 |
136,487 |
152,441 |
163,000 |
175,000 |
Cost of Sales |
(21,495) |
(24,206) |
(23,375) |
(24,604) |
(26,103) |
||
Gross Profit |
95,064 |
112,281 |
129,067 |
138,396 |
148,897 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
20,907 |
31,698 |
39,215 |
41,322 |
47,697 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
12,650 |
18,492 |
21,830 |
25,740 |
31,415 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(7,026) |
(8,809) |
(12,885) |
(10,782) |
(10,782) |
||
Share based payments |
(3,571) |
(2,401) |
(2,900) |
(2,900) |
(2,900) |
||
Exceptionals |
(892) |
1,529 |
(6,630) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
66 |
200 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
11,824 |
20,221 |
15,200 |
25,740 |
31,415 |
||
Net Interest |
(51) |
(665) |
7 |
(175) |
(150) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
16,302 |
20,428 |
24,737 |
28,465 |
34,165 |
Profit Before Tax (IFRS16) |
|
|
11,773 |
19,356 |
15,207 |
25,565 |
31,265 |
Tax |
(3,615) |
(5,086) |
(5,812) |
(9,771) |
(11,949) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
12,687 |
15,342 |
18,925 |
18,694 |
22,216 |
||
Profit After Tax (IFRS16) |
8,158 |
14,270 |
9,395 |
15,794 |
19,316 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
105.4 |
105.4 |
106.7 |
109.5 |
110.6 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
10.8 |
13.8 |
15.7 |
17.2 |
20.8 |
EPS - IFRS 16 (p) |
|
|
7.7 |
14.1 |
9.0 |
14.4 |
17.5 |
Dividend per share (p) |
3.0 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
81.6 |
82.3 |
84.7 |
84.9 |
85.1 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
17.9 |
23.2 |
25.7 |
25.4 |
27.3 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%) |
10.9 |
13.5 |
14.3 |
15.8 |
18.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
78,019 |
108,534 |
108,122 |
106,068 |
105,286 |
Intangible Assets |
65,357 |
82,374 |
84,611 |
83,829 |
83,047 |
||
Tangible Assets |
12,471 |
26,160 |
23,511 |
22,239 |
22,239 |
||
Investments |
191 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
66,735 |
72,581 |
70,255 |
77,891 |
89,417 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
34,672 |
33,726 |
34,239 |
36,611 |
39,306 |
||
Cash |
30,621 |
37,925 |
35,309 |
40,574 |
49,405 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(41,445) |
(51,395) |
(52,813) |
(55,070) |
(55,080) |
Creditors |
(41,445) |
(51,395) |
(52,813) |
(55,070) |
(55,080) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(11,238) |
(22,277) |
(16,226) |
(13,206) |
(13,206) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(11,238) |
(22,277) |
(16,226) |
(13,206) |
(13,206) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
92,071 |
107,443 |
109,338 |
115,683 |
126,418 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
23,617 |
38,115 |
38,411 |
41,615 |
48,031 |
Net Interest |
22 |
183 |
(7) |
175 |
150 |
||
Tax |
(5,501) |
(4,520) |
(3,184) |
(7,328) |
(11,949) |
||
Capex |
(8,181) |
(12,166) |
(18,559) |
(18,000) |
(16,000) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(885) |
(6,583) |
(7,451) |
(3,428) |
(3,020) |
||
Financing |
259 |
(3,652) |
(4,739) |
(2,000) |
(2,000) |
||
Dividends |
(2,106) |
(3,327) |
(4,298) |
(5,420) |
(6,081) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
7,225 |
8,050 |
173 |
5,615 |
9,131 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(23,219) |
(30,621) |
(37,925) |
(35,309) |
(40,574) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
177 |
(747) |
(2,789) |
(350) |
(300) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(30,621) |
(37,925) |
(35,309) |
(40,574) |
(49,405) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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Research: Investment Companies
Aberdeen New Thai Investment Trust (ANW) is the only London-listed investment trust focused on investing in Thailand and the manager Aberdeen Standard Investments (ASI) believes the Thai equity market remains inefficient. During 2020, the ANW team rebalanced the portfolio. ANW was not well positioned for the unforeseen pandemic and subsequent market rout, and performance disappointed. Nevertheless, the manager picked up undervalued stocks during the 2020 sell-off. The manager expects quality companies within the rebalanced portfolio that are market leaders to better weather the impacts of the pandemic and generate sustainable long-term returns.