Last close As at 05/08/2026
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— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
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Research: TMT
Osirium provided an update on trading and the impact of COVID-19 on its business. To date, it has not seen a material effect and customers are continuing to renew their contracts. However, management is aware that new business could take longer to sign up and costs are being managed accordingly. The need for secure IT systems is as relevant as ever, particularly with the current dispersed nature of the workforce; combined with the high level of recurring revenues, this should help Osirium to manage its way through this period of disruption.
Osirium Technologies |
COVID-19 update |
FY19 results |
Software & comp services |
14 April 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Osirium Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Osirium provided an update on trading and the impact of COVID-19 on its business. To date, it has not seen a material effect and customers are continuing to renew their contracts. However, management is aware that new business could take longer to sign up and costs are being managed accordingly. The need for secure IT systems is as relevant as ever, particularly with the current dispersed nature of the workforce; combined with the high level of recurring revenues, this should help Osirium to manage its way through this period of disruption.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
EV/sales |
12/17 |
0.65 |
(1.61) |
(18.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
8.4 |
12/18 |
0.96 |
(1.77) |
(18.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
5.7 |
12/19e |
1.15 |
(2.37) |
(19.5) |
0.0 |
N/A |
4.7 |
12/20e |
1.88 |
(2.38) |
(16.7) |
0.0 |
N/A |
2.9 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Contract renewals highlight recurring revenues
Osirium has provided a trading update confirming that it has seen little material effect on trading from COVID-19 disruption up to the end of March. In FY19, 100% of contracts due for renewal were renewed and in March 2020, Osirium saw a 12-month renewal from a combined UK police force customer for 1,000 devices (up from the initial 250-device deployment). Also in Q120, the company signed new contracts with a major regional UK ambulance service for five years and a large regional UK NHS trust for three years.
COVID-19: Potential to lengthen sales cycles
With many employees already accustomed to remote working, all Osirium staff are now working remotely, including customer support. Management is conscious that the disruption could make it more difficult to sign new business and is updating its contingency plans accordingly. The company had cash of £2.9m at the end of Q120; it has curtailed non-discretionary spend, including a hiring freeze, and will adjust costs further if need be. With FY19 results due in the next few weeks, we make no changes to our estimates at this point.
Valuation: Bookings the key driver
Osirium is trading at a discount to peers on an EV/Sales basis. As it is an early-stage company several years from profitability, we have performed a reverse DCF to analyse the assumptions factored into the current share price, using a WACC of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We estimate that the share price is discounting average bookings growth of 21% for FY21–28e, break-even EBITDA in FY24, average EBITDA margins of -9.3% for FY21–28e and a terminal EBITDA margin of 28%. In our view, bookings growth is the key driver of share price performance.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
120.0 |
207.0 |
290.2 |
477.6 |
647.6 |
957.5 |
1,149.7 |
1,882.7 |
EBITDA |
|
|
(366.7) |
(327.1) |
(377.9) |
(1,136.7) |
(1,609.4) |
(1,767.3) |
(2,374.4) |
(2,375.1) |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(679.4) |
(714.3) |
(790.7) |
(1,725.6) |
(2,296.8) |
(2,674.8) |
(3,388.0) |
(3,635.9) |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
(184.3) |
(56.4) |
(96.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
(679.4) |
(898.5) |
(847.1) |
(1,822.5) |
(2,296.8) |
(2,674.8) |
(3,388.0) |
(3,635.9) |
||
Net Interest |
(35.2) |
5.7 |
(9.9) |
9.7 |
4.2 |
(0.6) |
(37.7) |
(202.5) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(714.6) |
(708.5) |
(800.7) |
(1,715.9) |
(2,292.6) |
(2,675.4) |
(3,425.8) |
(3,838.4) |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(714.6) |
(892.8) |
(857.1) |
(1,812.8) |
(2,292.6) |
(2,675.4) |
(3,425.8) |
(3,838.4) |
Reported tax |
137.7 |
134.1 |
121.0 |
453.3 |
409.4 |
407.6 |
568.7 |
575.8 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(576.9) |
(602.1) |
(687.6) |
(1,286.9) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,267.8) |
(2,857.1) |
(3,262.6) |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(576.9) |
(758.7) |
(736.0) |
(1,359.6) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,267.8) |
(2,857.1) |
(3,262.6) |
||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(576.9) |
(602.1) |
(687.6) |
(1,286.9) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,267.8) |
(2,857.1) |
(3,262.6) |
||
Net income (reported) |
(576.9) |
(758.7) |
(736.0) |
(1,359.6) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,267.8) |
(2,857.1) |
(3,262.6) |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
0 |
1 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
(6.61) |
(12.38) |
(18.12) |
(18.14) |
(19.49) |
(16.74) |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
(6.61) |
(12.38) |
(18.12) |
(18.14) |
(19.49) |
(16.74) |
EPS - basic reported (p) |
|
|
(296.36) |
(144.92) |
(7.08) |
(13.08) |
(18.12) |
(18.14) |
(19.49) |
(16.74) |
Dividend (p) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
26.3 |
72.6 |
40.2 |
64.6 |
35.6 |
47.9 |
20.1 |
63.8 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-305.7 |
-158.0 |
-130.2 |
-238.0 |
-248.5 |
-184.6 |
-206.5 |
-126.2 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
-566.3 |
-345.0 |
-272.5 |
-361.3 |
-354.7 |
-279.4 |
-294.7 |
-193.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
815.7 |
805.2 |
799.7 |
1,178.8 |
1,812.1 |
2,360.2 |
3,021.5 |
3,490.8 |
Intangible Assets |
808.6 |
795.7 |
793.3 |
1,134.5 |
1,731.9 |
2,307.2 |
2,944.6 |
3,414.8 |
||
Tangible Assets |
7.2 |
9.5 |
6.4 |
44.3 |
80.2 |
52.9 |
76.9 |
75.9 |
||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
109.3 |
269.2 |
428.1 |
3,953.7 |
1,646.4 |
3,134.6 |
4,642.9 |
1,673.1 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
77.2 |
218.6 |
154.6 |
380.9 |
622.6 |
748.0 |
786.0 |
1,027.0 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
32.2 |
50.6 |
273.5 |
3,572.8 |
1,023.8 |
2,386.6 |
3,857.0 |
646.1 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(235.2) |
(294.2) |
(365.0) |
(648.5) |
(857.7) |
(1,170.3) |
(1,859.3) |
(2,418.8) |
Creditors |
(235.2) |
(294.2) |
(365.0) |
(648.5) |
(857.7) |
(1,170.3) |
(1,859.3) |
(2,418.8) |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(952.5) |
(487.6) |
(163.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(2,737.7) |
(2,940.2) |
Long term borrowings |
(789.0) |
(323.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(2,737.7) |
(2,940.2) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(163.4) |
(163.9) |
(163.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
(262.6) |
292.6 |
699.5 |
4,483.9 |
2,600.8 |
4,324.5 |
3,067.4 |
(195.2) |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
(262.6) |
292.6 |
699.5 |
4,483.9 |
2,600.8 |
4,324.5 |
3,067.4 |
(195.2) |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
(366.7) |
(327.1) |
(377.9) |
(1,136.7) |
(1,609.4) |
(1,767.3) |
(2,374.4) |
(2,375.1) |
||
Working capital |
66.3 |
3.8 |
120.7 |
226.8 |
85.5 |
187.2 |
651.1 |
318.5 |
||
Exceptional & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
109.8 |
48.4 |
134.6 |
120.4 |
291.4 |
407.6 |
568.7 |
575.8 |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(190.6) |
(274.9) |
(122.6) |
(789.4) |
(1,232.5) |
(1,172.5) |
(1,154.6) |
(1,480.8) |
Capex |
(412.8) |
(376.7) |
(407.3) |
(968.0) |
(1,320.6) |
(1,455.7) |
(1,675.0) |
(1,730.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(35.2) |
5.7 |
(9.9) |
9.7 |
4.2 |
(0.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
639.3 |
762.8 |
5,047.1 |
0.0 |
3,991.5 |
1,600.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(638.6) |
(6.5) |
222.9 |
3,299.3 |
(2,549.0) |
1,362.8 |
(1,229.6) |
(3,210.8) |
||
Opening net (cash)/debt |
|
|
118.3 |
756.9 |
273.1 |
(273.5) |
(3,572.8) |
(1,023.8) |
(2,386.6) |
(1,119.2) |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
490.3 |
323.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
(37.7) |
(202.5) |
||
Closing net (cash)/debt |
|
|
756.9 |
273.1 |
(273.5) |
(3,572.8) |
(1,023.8) |
(2,386.6) |
(1,119.2) |
2,294.1 |
Source: Osirium, Edison Investment Research
|
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Research: Energy & Resources
Hurricane Energy recently reported its first year of production and revenues from the sale of oil produced from the Lancaster early production system (EPS). The company reported FY19 revenue of c $170m, in line with our previous estimates. In this note we update our valuation to reflect FY19 results and the current oil and gas industry macroeconomic situation. The coronavirus (COVID-19) and the Russia/Saudi Arabia price war have affected oil and gas global supply and demand and consequently oil prices. Our mid-case risked valuation has decreased to 73.0p/share from 109.9p/share (-34%) as we adjust our short- and long-term oil price assumptions and update our forecasts to reflect Lancasterâs accelerated programme, and removal of the Great Warwick Area (GWA) tie-back.