Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR1.15
— 0.00 (0.26%)
Market capitalisation
EUR2,143m
Research: Consumer
Intralot’s (INLOT’s) Q324 results demonstrated good underlying revenue growth, which was offset by one-offs and negative foreign exchange differences, and a typical seasonal and sequential (ie quarter-on-quarter) increase in EBITDA. Since the start of Q324, INLOT has announced a contract extension (at least two years beyond 2026) in Australia; a new iLottery contract win in British Columbia, extending the existing relationship with the province; and the loss of an important lottery contract, with current EBITDA of US$20m, in Ohio, US, from July 2027. We have reduced our FY24 EBITDA estimate by c 5%.
Intralot |
Continuing improvement in Q324 |
Q324 results |
Travel and leisure |
19 December 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Intralot is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Intralot’s (INLOT’s) Q324 results demonstrated good underlying revenue growth, which was offset by one-offs and negative foreign exchange differences, and a typical seasonal and sequential (ie quarter-on-quarter) increase in EBITDA. Since the start of Q324, INLOT has announced a contract extension (at least two years beyond 2026) in Australia; a new iLottery contract win in British Columbia, extending the existing relationship with the province; and the loss of an important lottery contract, with current EBITDA of US$20m, in Ohio, US, from July 2027. We have reduced our FY24 EBITDA estimate by c 5%.
Year end |
GGR* |
EBITDA** (€m) |
PBT** |
EPS** |
EV/EBITDA |
P/E |
12/22 |
343.9 |
122.9 |
16.3 |
(0.01) |
7.3 |
N/A |
12/23 |
348.6 |
129.5 |
26.1 |
0.01 |
7.0 |
144.0 |
12/24e |
352.2 |
126.0 |
31.3 |
0.01 |
7.2 |
86.0 |
12/25e |
365.8 |
142.6 |
51.8 |
0.03 |
6.3 |
29.6 |
Note: *GGR, gross gaming revenue. **EBITDA, PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Underlying growth, negative forex and one-offs
Q324’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) declined by c 14% (€14.2m) y-o-y to c €90m and EBITDA declined by c 16% (€6.2m) to c €32m, with organic growth offset by negative foreign exchange effects and other one-offs. The currencies of the majority of countries where INLOT operates depreciated versus the euro again in Q324, negatively affecting GGR by €6.4m (c 6%), of which €2.3m was due to the Argentine peso. Other one-off negative effects included: 1) the absence of US jackpots versus €4.5m in Q323; 2) the absence of a one-off sale in Taiwan that benefited Q323 €5m; and 3) the smaller Morocco contract of €3m. When these items are excluded, we estimate organic revenue growth at €4.7m, or c 4.5%. Management highlighted good organic growth in the US, Oceania, Argentina and Turkey. In absolute terms, Q324’s EBITDA was greater than Q124 (€30.1m) and Q224 (€29.4m), albeit the margin was lower at 37.8% versus Q323 (38.7%) due to the deleveraging of costs on the lower revenue.
FY24e EBITDA downgraded by c 5%
We have reduced our FY24 EBITDA estimate by c 5% to reflect the lower profitability through the first nine months of FY24 (9M24). Our new estimate implies EBITDA for Q424 of c €35.5m, which would represent the most profitable financial quarter of the year in absolute terms, and a good increase in margin to just under 35% versus c 33% in Q423, when the company’s results began to be negatively affected by the depreciation of the Argentine peso.
Valuation: Discount to gaming technology peers
The downgrade to our estimates in FY24 and post FY26 to reflect the loss of the Ohio contract reduces our discounted cash flow-based valuation to €1.36 per share, from €1.70 per share previously. With FY24e and FY25e EV/EBITDA multiples of 7.2x and 6.3x, INLOT is trading at a mid-teens discount to the average multiples of 8.6x and 7.8x for the gaming technology peers in FY24e and FY25e.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€m |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||||
GGR |
|
|
409.2 |
292.9 |
335.3 |
343.9 |
348.6 |
352.2 |
365.8 |
Costs |
(314.6) |
(226.7) |
(224.9) |
(221.1) |
(219.1) |
(226.2) |
(223.2) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
94.5 |
66.2 |
110.4 |
122.9 |
129.5 |
126.0 |
142.6 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
11.9 |
(2.3) |
39.4 |
52.8 |
61.6 |
59.8 |
72.8 |
|
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(6.8) |
(6.8) |
(17.2) |
(1.2) |
0.0 |
(1.3) |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
5.1 |
(9.1) |
22.2 |
51.6 |
61.6 |
58.5 |
72.8 |
||
Net Interest |
(48.0) |
(48.4) |
(13.6) |
(36.7) |
(35.7) |
(28.5) |
(21.0) |
||
JVS and associates |
(17.5) |
(1.5) |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(10.2) |
(35.1) |
28.2 |
14.6 |
7.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(53.6) |
(52.2) |
26.0 |
16.3 |
26.1 |
31.3 |
51.8 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(70.6) |
(94.1) |
37.1 |
29.8 |
33.6 |
28.8 |
51.8 |
Reported tax |
(19.2) |
(7.2) |
(4.4) |
(10.8) |
(19.7) |
(12.8) |
(20.5) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(68.2) |
(56.2) |
23.0 |
10.4 |
10.8 |
17.4 |
31.3 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(89.8) |
(101.3) |
32.7 |
19.0 |
13.8 |
16.0 |
31.3 |
||
Minority interests |
(22.1) |
(3.1) |
(6.0) |
(12.6) |
(8.0) |
(10.6) |
(11.7) |
||
Discontinued operations |
7.7 |
(1.8) |
(9.2) |
5.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(90.3) |
(59.4) |
16.9 |
(2.2) |
2.8 |
6.7 |
19.6 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(104.2) |
(106.3) |
17.5 |
11.9 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
19.6 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
147.8 |
147.8 |
148.3 |
249.5 |
416.0 |
604.1 |
604.1 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(61.10) |
(40.19) |
11.42 |
(0.89) |
0.67 |
1.12 |
3.25 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
(61.10) |
(40.19) |
11.42 |
(0.89) |
0.67 |
1.12 |
3.25 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
(0.71) |
(0.72) |
0.12 |
0.05 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
Dividend (€) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
459.0 |
371.7 |
376.5 |
381.0 |
332.5 |
315.3 |
299.5 |
Intangible Assets |
242.9 |
202.0 |
204.3 |
208.6 |
182.3 |
170.2 |
159.1 |
||
Tangible Assets |
168.7 |
134.3 |
123.2 |
113.8 |
91.6 |
86.5 |
81.7 |
||
Investments & other |
47.4 |
35.4 |
49.0 |
58.6 |
58.6 |
58.6 |
58.6 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
338.5 |
277.1 |
231.1 |
236.1 |
256.2 |
268.8 |
283.8 |
Stocks |
35.6 |
25.7 |
18.7 |
23.9 |
24.4 |
24.6 |
25.6 |
||
Debtors |
131.7 |
151.4 |
105.0 |
109.8 |
119.9 |
121.2 |
125.9 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
171.1 |
100.0 |
107.3 |
102.4 |
111.9 |
123.1 |
132.4 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(135.7) |
(370.4) |
(115.9) |
(105.7) |
(320.7) |
(322.7) |
(321.8) |
Creditors |
(91.8) |
(89.5) |
(89.2) |
(78.3) |
(61.5) |
(63.4) |
(62.6) |
||
Tax and social security |
(3.1) |
(3.4) |
(5.6) |
(0.8) |
(3.9) |
(3.9) |
(3.9) |
||
Short term borrowings and leases |
(37.9) |
(274.9) |
(16.5) |
(22.5) |
(251.9) |
(251.9) |
(251.9) |
||
Other |
(2.9) |
(2.6) |
(4.6) |
(4.2) |
(3.4) |
(3.4) |
(3.4) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(754.9) |
(497.6) |
(607.1) |
(599.1) |
(225.9) |
(214.0) |
(194.4) |
Long term borrowings and leases |
(727.4) |
(476.2) |
(588.0) |
(570.4) |
(193.2) |
(175.0) |
(149.2) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(27.6) |
(21.5) |
(19.2) |
(28.8) |
(32.7) |
(39.1) |
(45.2) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
(93.2) |
(219.1) |
(115.5) |
(87.7) |
42.1 |
47.4 |
67.1 |
Minority interests |
0.2 |
3.7 |
8.0 |
20.2 |
17.8 |
17.8 |
17.8 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
(93.0) |
(215.4) |
(107.5) |
(67.5) |
59.9 |
65.3 |
84.9 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
19.8 |
(27.1) |
100.4 |
105.4 |
101.5 |
94.9 |
121.6 |
||
Working capital |
(12.1) |
(8.1) |
(12.3) |
(16.7) |
(11.2) |
0.5 |
(6.5) |
||
Exceptional & other |
67.9 |
87.4 |
15.6 |
19.8 |
29.5 |
28.5 |
21.0 |
||
Tax |
(14.3) |
(14.5) |
3.8 |
(12.2) |
(7.2) |
(6.4) |
(14.3) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
61.3 |
37.7 |
107.6 |
96.3 |
112.5 |
117.5 |
121.8 |
Capex |
(55.0) |
(35.9) |
(22.9) |
(26.5) |
(29.7) |
(45.0) |
(50.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
98.4 |
(3.5) |
10.3 |
(125.1) |
(2.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(44.0) |
(43.8) |
(54.4) |
(38.5) |
(35.1) |
(26.5) |
(19.0) |
||
Equity financing |
(10.6) |
0.0 |
0.1 |
128.9 |
130.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(41.7) |
(8.5) |
(6.5) |
(3.7) |
(4.5) |
(10.6) |
(11.7) |
||
Other |
(1.7) |
(11.9) |
(23.1) |
(32.6) |
(148.5) |
(24.3) |
(31.8) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
6.8 |
(65.8) |
11.1 |
(1.3) |
22.5 |
11.1 |
9.3 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) including leases |
|
615.3 |
594.1 |
651.1 |
497.2 |
490.5 |
333.2 |
303.8 |
|
FX |
1.9 |
(5.3) |
(3.8) |
(3.7) |
(12.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(29.8) |
128.1 |
(161.3) |
(1.8) |
(166.8) |
(40.5) |
(44.4) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
594.1 |
651.1 |
497.2 |
490.5 |
333.2 |
303.8 |
268.7 |
Source: Intralot accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Real Estate
Since reporting H125 results, Picton has agreed the sale of an office asset designated for alternative use, completed the small but accretive acquisition of an industrial unit, and undertaken several leasing and other asset management initiatives. Together, these demonstrate continuing progress with the active measures being taken to improve occupancy, grow income and dividends, and realise value embedded in the portfolio.