Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR1.15
— 0.00 (0.26%)
Market capitalisation
EUR2,143m
Research: Consumer
Intralot reported good underlying revenue growth in Q124, offset by broad-based unfavourable foreign exchange translation effects and some phasing. Our estimates are unchanged following the results. The company also announced the appointment of Nikolaos Nikolakopoulos as CEO. Mr Nikolakopoulos, who remains as CEO of the US subsidiary, Intralot Inc, takes the role from the incumbent chairman, Sokratis Kokkalis. The US is a key market for the company’s future growth aspirations, with plenty of opportunities to gain share in the next few years.
Intralot |
Underlying progress in Q124 |
Q124 results |
Travel and leisure |
20 June 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Intralot is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Intralot reported good underlying revenue growth in Q124, offset by broad-based unfavourable foreign exchange translation effects and some phasing. Our estimates are unchanged following the results. The company also announced the appointment of Nikolaos Nikolakopoulos as CEO. Mr Nikolakopoulos, who remains as CEO of the US subsidiary, Intralot Inc, takes the role from the incumbent chairman, Sokratis Kokkalis. The US is a key market for the company’s future growth aspirations, with plenty of opportunities to gain share in the next few years.
Year end |
GGR* |
EBITDA** |
PBT** |
EPS** |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
P/E |
12/22 |
343.9 |
122.9 |
16.3 |
(0.01) |
8.0 |
N/A |
12/23 |
348.6 |
129.5 |
26.1 |
0.01 |
7.6 |
163.5 |
12/24e |
354.0 |
138.1 |
47.7 |
0.02 |
7.1 |
59.0 |
12/25e |
378.9 |
151.5 |
70.2 |
0.04 |
6.5 |
26.8 |
Note: *GGR, gross gaming revenue. **EBITDA, PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Underlying revenue growth, negative forex
Intralot’s year-on-year revenue decline of €4.3m (4.8%) to €85.1m in Q124 included an identified negative translation effect from the devaluation of the Argentine peso (ARS/€227 at end-Q123 to ARS/€928 at end-Q124) of €6.7m, equivalent to a 7.5% change at the group level. The depreciation of most currencies of countries where Intralot operates versus the euro in Q124 indicates there were other unquantified negative foreign exchange effects, and therefore implies mid-single-digit underlying revenue growth in the period. Specifically, management highlights strong (+132% yo-y local currency) growth in Argentina, market share gains in Turkey and flat revenue in the US despite unfavourable jackpots. The absolute year-on-year decline in EBITDA of €3.6m, to €30.1m, appears to be entirely due to the translation effects of the Argentine peso devaluation, further investment in Turkey to drive market share, and the smaller scope of a renewed contract in Morocco, which offset very strong (c +40%) growth in Europe. The absolute decline in profitability coupled with an unfavourable working capital investment, which should reverse later in the year, led to lower absolute and relative (to revenue) free cash generation. As a result, the net debt position (excluding leases) increased marginally to c €338m (c €317m at end-FY23). In Q124 and following the period end, the company has redeemed and refinanced all of its debt obligations that had an FY24 maturity.
No change to estimates
Following the Q124 results, we have made no changes to our estimates; for FY24 and FY25 we expect EBITDA growth of c 7% and c 9%, respectively.
Valuation: Attractive versus our DCF valuation
The share price remains at a c 32% discount to our DCF-based valuation of €1.60 per share. With respect to multiples, Intralot’s FY24 EV/EBITDA of 7.1x is at a modest discount to the average multiple for the gaming technology peers of 7.5x, but at a premium for the median multiple of 5.7x.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€m |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
409.2 |
292.9 |
335.3 |
343.9 |
348.6 |
354.0 |
378.9 |
Costs |
(314.6) |
(226.7) |
(224.9) |
(221.1) |
(219.1) |
(215.9) |
(227.3) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
94.5 |
66.2 |
110.4 |
122.9 |
129.5 |
138.1 |
151.5 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
11.9 |
(2.3) |
39.4 |
52.8 |
61.6 |
76.2 |
91.2 |
|
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(6.8) |
(6.8) |
(17.2) |
(1.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
5.1 |
(9.1) |
22.2 |
51.6 |
61.6 |
76.2 |
91.2 |
||
Net Interest |
(48.0) |
(48.4) |
(13.6) |
(36.7) |
(35.7) |
(28.5) |
(21.0) |
||
JVS and associates |
(17.5) |
(1.5) |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(10.2) |
(35.1) |
28.2 |
14.6 |
7.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(53.6) |
(52.2) |
26.0 |
16.3 |
26.1 |
47.7 |
70.2 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(70.6) |
(94.1) |
37.1 |
29.8 |
33.6 |
47.7 |
70.2 |
Reported tax |
(19.2) |
(7.2) |
(4.4) |
(10.8) |
(19.7) |
(21.2) |
(27.7) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(68.2) |
(56.2) |
23.0 |
10.4 |
10.8 |
26.5 |
42.5 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(89.8) |
(101.3) |
32.7 |
19.0 |
13.8 |
26.5 |
42.5 |
||
Minority interests |
(22.1) |
(3.1) |
(6.0) |
(12.6) |
(8.0) |
(15.3) |
(17.9) |
||
Discontinued operations |
7.7 |
(1.8) |
(9.2) |
5.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(90.3) |
(59.4) |
16.9 |
(2.2) |
2.8 |
11.2 |
24.6 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(104.2) |
(106.3) |
17.5 |
11.9 |
5.8 |
11.2 |
24.6 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
147.8 |
147.8 |
148.3 |
249.5 |
416.0 |
604.1 |
604.1 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(61.10) |
(40.19) |
11.42 |
(0.89) |
0.67 |
1.85 |
4.07 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
(61.10) |
(40.19) |
11.42 |
(0.89) |
0.67 |
1.85 |
4.07 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
(0.71) |
(0.72) |
0.12 |
0.05 |
0.01 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
Dividend (€) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
459.0 |
371.7 |
376.5 |
381.0 |
332.5 |
319.6 |
313.3 |
Intangible Assets |
242.9 |
202.0 |
204.3 |
208.6 |
182.3 |
170.2 |
159.1 |
||
Tangible Assets |
168.7 |
134.3 |
123.2 |
113.8 |
91.6 |
90.8 |
95.6 |
||
Investments & other |
47.4 |
35.4 |
49.0 |
58.6 |
58.6 |
58.6 |
58.6 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
338.5 |
277.1 |
231.1 |
236.1 |
256.2 |
271.7 |
287.7 |
Stocks |
35.6 |
25.7 |
18.7 |
23.9 |
24.4 |
24.7 |
26.5 |
||
Debtors |
131.7 |
151.4 |
105.0 |
109.8 |
119.9 |
121.8 |
130.3 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
171.1 |
100.0 |
107.3 |
102.4 |
111.9 |
125.2 |
130.9 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(135.7) |
(370.4) |
(115.9) |
(105.7) |
(320.7) |
(319.8) |
(323.0) |
Creditors |
(91.8) |
(89.5) |
(89.2) |
(78.3) |
(61.5) |
(60.6) |
(63.8) |
||
Tax and social security |
(3.1) |
(3.4) |
(5.6) |
(0.8) |
(3.9) |
(3.9) |
(3.9) |
||
Short term borrowings and leases |
(37.9) |
(274.9) |
(16.5) |
(22.5) |
(251.9) |
(251.9) |
(251.9) |
||
Other |
(2.9) |
(2.6) |
(4.6) |
(4.2) |
(3.4) |
(3.4) |
(3.4) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(754.9) |
(497.6) |
(607.1) |
(599.1) |
(225.9) |
(218.3) |
(200.2) |
Long term borrowings and leases |
(727.4) |
(476.2) |
(588.0) |
(570.4) |
(193.2) |
(175.0) |
(148.6) |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(27.6) |
(21.5) |
(19.2) |
(28.8) |
(32.7) |
(43.3) |
(51.6) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
(93.2) |
(219.1) |
(115.5) |
(87.7) |
42.1 |
53.3 |
77.8 |
Minority interests |
0.2 |
3.7 |
8.0 |
20.2 |
17.8 |
17.8 |
17.8 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
(93.0) |
(215.4) |
(107.5) |
(67.5) |
59.9 |
71.1 |
95.7 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
19.8 |
(27.1) |
100.4 |
105.4 |
101.5 |
109.6 |
130.5 |
||
Working capital |
(12.1) |
(8.1) |
(12.3) |
(16.7) |
(11.2) |
(3.1) |
(7.1) |
||
Exceptional & other |
67.9 |
87.4 |
15.6 |
19.8 |
29.5 |
28.5 |
21.0 |
||
Tax |
(14.3) |
(14.5) |
3.8 |
(12.2) |
(7.2) |
(10.6) |
(19.4) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
61.3 |
37.7 |
107.6 |
96.3 |
112.5 |
124.3 |
125.0 |
Capex |
(55.0) |
(35.9) |
(22.9) |
(26.5) |
(29.7) |
(45.0) |
(50.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
98.4 |
(3.5) |
10.3 |
(125.1) |
(2.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(44.0) |
(43.8) |
(54.4) |
(38.5) |
(35.1) |
(26.5) |
(19.0) |
||
Equity financing |
(10.6) |
0.0 |
0.1 |
128.9 |
130.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(41.7) |
(8.5) |
(6.5) |
(3.7) |
(4.5) |
(15.3) |
(17.9) |
||
Other |
(1.7) |
(11.9) |
(23.1) |
(32.6) |
(148.5) |
(24.2) |
(32.4) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
6.8 |
(65.8) |
11.1 |
(1.3) |
22.5 |
13.2 |
5.7 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) including leases |
|
615.3 |
594.1 |
651.1 |
497.2 |
490.5 |
333.2 |
301.7 |
|
FX |
1.9 |
(5.3) |
(3.8) |
(3.7) |
(12.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(29.8) |
128.1 |
(161.3) |
(1.8) |
(166.8) |
(44.7) |
(37.8) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
594.1 |
651.1 |
497.2 |
490.5 |
333.2 |
301.7 |
269.6 |
Source: Intralot accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
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