Good start to the year

Within OPAP’s overall year-on-year growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR) of 6.5% to €1,153m in H125, Q225 growth of c 5% slowed versus Q125’s 8.2%. The change in growth rates between the quarters reflects the differing comparatives in H124, specifically higher sports betting activity around the UEFA European Football Championship that boosted Q224 growth, rather than any loss of momentum. Revenue growth was accompanied by broadly the same rate of growth in EBITDA (to €398m) and free cash flow. With a higher absolute dividend payment in H125 versus H124, net debt was essentially unchanged from end-FY24, equivalent to only 0.17x EBITDA on a trailing 12-month basis. The purchase of the outstanding 15.5% minority stake in Stoiximan for c €201m was made in August 2025.

On track to deliver FY25 guidance

The strong performance in H125 gives management confidence to state that OPAP is on track to deliver FY25 guidance of low-single-digit GGR growth and an EBITDA margin of around 35%. While the guidance for GGR growth looks conservative in the context of the 6.5% growth delivered in H125 (ie implying a y-o-y decline in H225), this is no mean achievement given H224’s performance, with 14% GGR growth, and Q424 in particular, which provide tough comparatives. Q424’s performance was so strong that not only did OPAP beat our FY24 profit estimate at the time, but that for FY25 too. Our underlying operational estimates are unchanged, but we make a number of other changes, including the recent purchase of the outstanding minority stake in Stoiximan.

Valuation: Peer-leading dividend yield

Our DCF-based valuation is unchanged at €22 per share. Relative to consensus expectations for its gaming peers, OPAP offers lower expected revenue growth but is more profitable. As a result, it is trading at a modest premium when looking at prospective P/E multiples, but offers a more attractive dividend yield versus the peer median of 2.6–2.8% for FY25 and FY26.

H125 results provide confidence for FY25 guidance

Income statement: More than 6% revenue and EBITDA growth

OPAP reported good growth in revenue and EBITDA of more than 6% in H125, giving a broadly unchanged EBITDA margin. Within the overall revenue growth, online (at almost 31% of the total) put in the most impressive performance, with 14% growth, while retail revenue growth of c 3% was consistent with FY24.

Revenue growth slowed a little from Q125’s strong c 8% growth to c 5% in Q225. However, the change appears attributable to the differences in growth rates of the comparative periods from H124, as Q225 had a more challenging comparative from Q224 of 7% growth versus c 4% in Q124. In Q224, OPAP’s sports betting revenue, split between Betting and Online Betting in its segment reporting, was boosted by higher levels of player activity around the UEFA European Football Championship. As a result, both declined to a greater or less extent in Q225.

The continued strong growth by iGaming, which has been 20% or above in every quarter shown in Exhibit 1, obviously catches the eye. However, the improved revenue growth from Instant & Passives of c 8% in Q225, its first quarter of growth since Q223, is also notable, as is the 7% growth from video lottery terminals (VLTs), the highest for some time.

The improvement in Instant & Passives is attributed to revitalisation of the Scratch games, which has been a key focus of management for some time. Following the period end, OPAP, along with a competitor, Brightstar Global Solutions Corporation (BGS), the former International Game Technology rebranded lottery business, submitted an expression of interest in the first phase of the tender for the next concession of the licence, which expires on 1 May 2026. OPAP has been selected to participate in the second phase of the tender for binding offer submission, while there is no official confirmation on whether BGS has been selected to participate in the second phase. We factor in a licence payment of €80m in FY26, lower than the €192m paid in 2014 by a consortium including OPAP, given that GGR is much lower than it was in the first years of the operation of the games.

The improved growth in the performance of VLTs is a result of a number of initiatives that have been in process for some time, including upgrading the game cabinets and variety of games. These initiatives are leading to higher player engagement and spend per visit, which increased by about 3% in Q225 versus Q224.

OPAP’s Lotteries revenue has been enjoying better growth in the last four quarters, helped by a number of large rollers in Tzoker jackpot game, with two of the three highest-ever jackpots occurring in that time (€18.7m in September 2024 and €19.5m in January 2025). These have been followed by the largest ever jackpot of €28.8m in August 2025, which will help Q325’s results as it has generated GGR of €54m, and the period had a tough comparative from the first of these large jackpots in September 2024. The online lottery activities demonstrated strong growth of c 30% in Q225 and H125, although online remains relatively small at c €21m GGR in H125. This demonstrates that management’s initiatives to revitalise the games, with larger jackpots, and engage with customers are leading to improved financial results.

The increasing contribution from online revenue that attracts lower agents’ commissions helped grow the gross margin by 60bp to 42.2% in H125. At the EBITDA level, this was offset by a marginal increase in payroll relative to revenue (OPAP is investing in staff to assist in driving revenue growth and the employment market is competitive) and a lower relative but stable absolute contribution from other income (ie the licence prepayment income).

Consistent cash conversion and conservative balance sheet

OPAP’s free cash flow before lease repayments increased by c 7% to c €306m in H125, essentially in line with its revenue and EBITDA profit growth.

Below free cash flow, dividend payments of €287m were significantly higher than the €223m paid out in H124, which naturally reflects the higher final dividend from FY24 of €0.8 per share versus FY23’s €0.6 per share. As a result, the period-end cash balance declined to c €493m from c €645m at the end of Q125, but was broadly similar to the position at the end of FY24. With relatively unchanged gross debt of c €650m versus c €652m at the end of FY24, excluding IFRS 16 liabilities, the net debt position increased to c €148m at the end of H125, equivalent to net debt/EBITDA over the last 12 months of 0.17x.

With smaller absolute dividend payments and typically seasonally higher profit in H2, we would normally expect the net debt position to improve by the end of the year. However, on 18 July OPAP announced that it would proceed with the acquisition of the remaining c 15.5% stake in Stoiximan for a consideration of c €201m, and the amount was subsequently paid on 4 August.

With the H125 results management declared an interim dividend of €0.5 per share, equivalent to a payout ratio of c 78% on H125 earnings. The declared dividend is lower than the €0.6 per share declared in H124, albeit there does not appear to be a clear message on payout at the interim stage as it represented a payout ratio of 94%. We continue to assume a dividend payout ratio of 100% given OPAP’s strong cash generation and low financial gearing, which was confirmed by management on the results conference call.

Changes to estimates

With the results, management has indicated that OPAP is on track to deliver FY25 guidance from the start of the year of low-single-digit GGR growth and a reported EBITDA margin of around 35%.

We make no changes to our operational estimates, which may look conservative given the growth delivered in H125, as it implies a y-o-y decline in GGR of more than 2% and EBITDA of more than 5% in H225. However, OPAP faces more challenging comparatives from H224 when GGR increased by over 14% and EBITDA increased by almost 29%. The Q424 performance was so strong that not only did OPAP’s FY24 results surpass our estimates at the time, they also exceeded our FY25 estimates.

Exhibit 1 shows which segments drove the strong growth in H224.

The key drivers of Q324 performance were: 1) the second-largest Tzoker Mega jackpot ever (at the time), which added c €15m of incremental GGR and took Lotteries growth to more than 20% y-o-y; 2) strong growth in sports betting (+15% y-o-y growth in Betting and +18% growth in Online Betting) due to a full sporting calendar, including the quadrennial UEFA European Football Championship; and 3) more than 48% growth in iGaming.

Q424 GGR growth was driven by OPAP’s online activities, which grew by c 34%, as well by its retail betting activities. Its total Betting revenues (online and retail) demonstrated better revenue growth as the year progressed, helped by the UEFA tournament and the change in format of the European football club competitions. A more favourable win ratio towards operators was also helpful in boosting Q424 revenue.

Although we make no changes to our operational estimates, we have made a number of other changes to our model following the results:

• We have incorporated the purchase of the minority stake in Stoiximan.
• With no further share repurchases made in H125, following the completion of the €150m buyback in FY24, we no longer factor in any further share repurchases under the current authority, which enables the company to buy back up to 5% of the shares. Management is likely to use the authority at a later stage.

Valuation

Relative to its peers, OPAP offers lower revenue growth but more attractive levels of profitability. These are reflected in premium prospective P/E multiples and a higher dividend yield.

Our DCF-based valuation is unchanged at €22 per share.