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Comvita — Update 15 November 2015

Comvita — Update 15 November 2015

Comvita

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Comvita

More honey, more money

Interim results

Food & beverages

16 November 2016

Price

NZ$8.29

Market cap

NZ$327m

US$1.00/NZ$1.53

Net debt (NZ$m) at 30 September 2015

59.8

Shares in issue

39.5m

Free float

83.4%

Code

CVT

Primary exchange

NZX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

13.1

30.1

80.3

Rel (local)

6.3

29.4

72.3

52-week high/low

NZ$7.35

NZ$3.49

Business description

Comvita (CVT) is a manufacturer and marketer of honey-based products and fresh olive leaf extract products. The products are used for health, skin care and medical uses. Approximately 80% of its products are exported to Australia, Asia, North America and the UK.

Next event

31 March 2016 results

May 2016

Analysts

Moira Daw

+61 9258 1161

Finola Burke

+61 9258 1161

Comvita is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Comvita (CVT) achieved a NZ$8.7m turnaround in the six months to September 2015 pre-tax profit (y-o-y) to NZ$5.1m and upgraded its full year NPAT guidance to NZ$15-17m (a 46-65% increase y-o-y vs previous guidance of 35%. CVT’s five-year strategic plan is to build sales to NZ$400m, with profit growth expected to outpace sales growth. The company plans to leverage its premium brand positioning, exploit its established distribution channels and use its control of raw material sourcing as a key competitive advantage. We have upgraded our forecasts and increased our valuation from NZ$7.16/share to a rounded NZ$9.20/share (a DCF of NZ$9.03 plus market value of Derma Science investment of NZ$0.185).

Year end

Revenue (NZ$m)

PBT*
(NZ$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/14

115.3

12.6

25.5

12.0

25.5

1.4

03/15

152.7

16.3

29.9

13.0

29.9

1.6

03/16e

206.9

26.1

45.2

18.0

18.3

2.2

06/16e*

236.9

29.5

52.3

18.0

15.9

2.2

06/17e

247.3

32.9

57.5

23.0

14.4

2.8

06/18e

298.9

41.8

72.7

28.0

11.4

3.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments. *The year end will change from 31 March to 30 June from 2016. 06/16e is 15 months.

H116 result highlights

H116 revenue was up 52.6% with strong sales growth in all markets. Australia grew by 77.3% and the medical segment was up 105.7%. Gross profit margin increased from 43.2% in H115 to 45.6% in H116 and the EBITDA margin from 1.1% to 10.2%.

Focus on product innovation

CVT believes it can drive sales and improve profitability through product innovation designed to optimise the use of its valuable raw materials. Raw material inventory levels at 30 September 2015 were NZ$42.0m compared with NZ$21.9m at the end of the previous corresponding period. In a market where demand exceeds supply, increased raw material inventory is seen as a positive indicator – more honey equals more money.

Valuation: A re-rating is due

In our view, a re-rating is merited because CVT has enhanced its credibility by over-delivering for the last three periods. Sales continue to grow strongly and ahead of its Australia-based peer Blackmores (BKL.ASX). In H116 CVT achieved sales growth (52.6%) ahead of BKL’s FY15 36%. Our forecasts show a three-year CAGR in earnings per share of ~33%, which compares favourably with the peer group’s ~25%. We have increased our valuation from NZ$7.16/share to NZ$9.20/share. Our valuation uses earnings multiples and is supported by our DCF valuation of NZ$9.03 plus the current market value of the Derma Sciences shares of NZ$0.185/share.

H116 results – key messages

The H116 results and increase in NPAT guidance, from a 35% increase in FY16 NPAT to FY16 NPAT of NZ$15-17m (a 46-65% increase), should improve investor confidence and demonstrate that CVT has the building blocks in place to achieve annual EPS growth of >30% and improve ROCE to >25% by FY20. Key messages in the results included:

■

an increase in raw material inventory of 91.8% from NZ$21.9m to NZ$42m, which underpins our increased revenue forecasts for FY16 and FY17;

■

continung to position the Comvita product as a premium product;

■

improved profitability, with positive H1 results for the first time since H113;

■

growth in profitability greater than growth in sales (see Exhibit 1), which shows contribution before unallocated corporate costs in H116 growing by 133.3% compared with revenue growth of 52.6%;

■

positive EBIT (margin (6.4%) compared with negative EBIT (of NZ$1.7m) in H115;

■

growth in total sales of 52.6% driven by both volume and price increases;

■

on track to achieve five-year strategic objective of sales of NZ$400m by FY20;

■

focus on passing on price increases in a timely manner;

■

strategic investment in SeaDragon (SEA.NZX) and agreement to supply CVT with New Zealand-sourced fish oils; and

■

leverage from selling more product through existing distribution channels.

Exhibit 1: CVT – Divisional results comparison

H116

H115

Variance (%)

Sales

NZ

19.7

14.8

33.4

Australia

28.7

16.2

77.3

Asia

30.3

19.8

53.3

Europe

4.3

4.0

8.3

Medical

4.7

2.3

105.7

Other

3.4

2.7

25.0

Total

91.1

59.7

52.6

Contribution

NZ

8.9

5.3

67.9

Australia

11.3

3.8

201.0

Asia

3.2

1.2

175.3

Europe

0.1

0.4

(70.4)

Medical

2.2

1.3

62.6

Other

(0.3)

(1.1)

(73.9)

Total

25.5

10.9

133.3

Unallocated costs

(20.2)

(14.5)

39.5

Equity accounted associate

(0.2)

Net profit before tax

5.1

(3.6)

Contribution margin (%)

NZ

45.3

36.0

Australia

39.3

23.2

Asia

10.7

6.0

Europe

2.9

10.7

Medical

46.7

59.0

Other

(8.3)

(39.9)

Total

28.0

18.3

Net profit before tax

5.6

(6.0)

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

Improving ROCE

ROCE history and our forecasts for expected future ROCE are set in Exhibit 2 below.

Exhibit 2: Comvita - ROCE

Source: Comvita annual financial statement (reported), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)

Forecast changes

We have increased our forecast revenue and operating margins to reflect the improved H116 performance and our increased confidence in the ability of CVT to meet its goal of reaching sales of NZ$400m by FY20. We have also incorporated the accounting change in financial year from 31 March to 30 June from 2016. Our financial summary (Exhibit 6) shows the year ended 31 March 2016 and the 15-month period ended 30 June 2016. The table below shows changes made for the year ended 31 March 2016, and for subsequent years we have used a 30 June year end.

Exhibit 3: Forecast changes

FY16e

FY17e

FY18e

Previous

Revised

Variance (%)

Previous

Revised

Variance (%)

Previous

Revised

Variance (%)

Revenue

181.2

206.9

14.2

215.5

247.3

14.8

261.7

298.9

14.2

EBITDA

27.5

32.6

18.7

34.1

39.4

15.6

41.4

48.3

16.6

EBITA

23.6

28.2

19.2

30.1

35.4

17.8

37.4

44.3

18.4

Amortisation

(1.2)

(1.7)

N/M

1.1)

(1.1)

N/M

(0.9)

(1.0)

N/M

Associate

-

1.1

N/M

N/M

N/M

Interest

(1.9)

(2.1)

11.2

(1.8)

(2.5)

40.2

(1.9)

(2.5)

33.4

NPBT (norm)

21.8

26.1

19.9

28.3

32.9

16.3

35.5

41.8

17.7

NPAT (norm)*

15.2

17.9

17.7

19.6

22.7

16.2

24.4

28.7

17.5

EPS (norm)*

38.5

45.2

17.3

49.6

57.5

15.9

62.0

72.7

17.3

DPS

14.0

18.0

28.6

22.0

23.0

4.5

26.0

28.0

7.7

Revenue growth

14.1%

30.3%

16.2

19.0%

19.6%

0.6

21.4%

20.9%

(0.6)

EBITDA margin %

15.2%

15.8%

0.6

15.8%

15.9%

0.1

15.8%

16.1%

0.3

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Adjusted for amortisation.

Derma Sciences shareholding

CVT holds 864,880 shares in Derma Science (DSCI.NASDAQ). The financial statements at 30 September 2015 show the value of this shareholding at NZ$8.152m. At 10 November 2015, Derma’s share price was US$5.56 (NZ$8.49 using an exchange rate of US$1.00/NZ$1.53), a total value of NZ$7.342m, or NZ$0.185 per CVT share.


Valuation: DCF of NZ$9.03 plus Derma Science NZ$0.185/share

Comparative companies

There are three companies in our peer group:

■

Capilano Honey (CZZ.ASX) is an Australia-based honey packager selling ~80% of its product through large supermarket chains in Australia. CZZ sources all its honey supply from third parties and achieves lower margins than CVT because its product is positioned at the commodity end rather than the premium end of the product range.

■

Blackmores (BKL.ASX) is an Australia-based supplier of vitamins, minerals and supplements. Its product range is more extensive than CVT, but targets similar markets and, like CVT, it sees substantial growth opportunities in China.

■

Vitaco Holdings (VIT.ASX) is a recently listed vitamins, minerals and supplements business with exposure to Asian markets.

We have included the vitamin, minerals and supplements companies because they address the same markets with a comparable product range, albeit that the peers’ product range is more extensive than CVT’s, which is largely focused around products using Manuka honey, olive leaf and fish oil. Both Blackmore and Vitaco see Asian markets as key growth drivers. CVT has been operating in Asia for10 years and has built both brand and distribution capability in key Asian markets.

We derive a valuation of NZ$9.20 (rounded), which is supported by our DCF of NZ$9.03 (WACC of 10.7% and terminal growth rate of 2%, see Exhibit 4) plus the current market value of the Derma Sciences investment (NZ$0.185 per share) as of 10 November.

Our valuation of NZ$9.20 positions CVT ahead of Capliano on all earnings-based measures and at a discount to the broader peer group average. We have applied a discount because CVT’s ROE is only around half that of the peer group. The discounts to the peer group in FY17 and FY18 are:

■

P/E FY17e: a discount of 2.0x (around 9%) and P/E FY18e (around 6%) – a discount of 1.1x (we are expecting CVT to grow earnings stronger than the peer group); and

■

EV/EBIT FY17e: a discount of 2.1x and EV/EBIT FY18e – a discount of 1.1x.

Exhibit 4: Comparative company valuations

FY14

FY15

FY16e

FY17e

FY18e

P/E (x)

Peer group

Capilano

11.3

14.0

15.5

13.8

11.9

Blackmores

18.2

27.8

33.9

28.1

23.0

Vitaco

-

-

30.7

22.6

18.7

Peer group average

14.7

20.9

26.7

21.5

17.9

Comvita (reported)

28.8

24.6

16.3

12.8

10.1

Comvita (at valuation)

36.1

30.8

20.4

16.0

12.7

EV/EBIT (x)

Peer Group

Capilano

9.6

9.9

11.7

10.8

8.4

Blackmores

13.0

18.3

22.7

18.9

16.8

Vitaco

-

-

-

-

-

Peer group average

11.3

14.1

17.2

14.9

12.6

Comvita

22.0

15.4

12.4

10.4

9.3

Comvita (at valuation)

26.9

19.0

15.1

12.8

11.5

Yield (%)

Peer Group

Capilano

2.5%

2.9%

3.1%

3.4%

3.8%

Blackmores

4.7%

2.7%

2.2%

2.7%

3.3%

Vitaco

0.0%

0.0%

1.8%

2.4%

3.0%

Peer group average

3.6%

2.8%

2.3%

2.9%

3.4%

Comvita

1.6%

1.8%

2.4%

3.1%

3.8%

Comvita (at valuation)

1.3%

1.4%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

EBITDA margin (%)

Peer Group

Capilano

9.5%

11.0%

11.8%

12.1%

12.6%

Blackmores

13.3%

16.5%

19.6%

20.5%

21.5%

Vitaco

13.3%

11.9%

11.9%

13.3%

14.4%

Peer group average

12.0%

13.1%

14.4%

15.3%

16.1%

Comvita

13.7%

14.9%

15.8%

15.9%

16.1%

Sales growth (%)

Peer Group

Capilano

19.4%

40.3%

7.6%

6.4%

21.7%

Blackmores

6.2%

36.0%

40.4%

14.1%

16.0%

Vitaco

1.5%

16.2%

23.8%

12.4%

9.4%

Peer group average

9.0%

30.8%

24.0%

11.0%

15.7%

Comvita

19.4%

31.6%

35.5%

19.6%

20.9%

ROE

Peer Group

Capilano

16.6

25.2

26.9

26.4

25.3

Blackmores

25.1

39.3

58.6

59.0

56.4

Vitaco

-

-

10.6

13.9

15.6

Peer group average

20.9

32.2

32.0

33.1

32.4

Comvita

10.1

11.8

15.3

15.4

16.5

Source: Comvita financial statements, Edison Investment Research for forecasts, other companies Bloomberg consensus estimates. Note: prices as at 10 November 2015.

DCF valuation

The DCF valuation uses a WACC of 10.7% and a terminal growth rate of 2%.

Exhibit 5: DCF valuation

DCF

2016e

2017e

2018e

2019e

2020e

2021e

2022e

2023e

2024e

2025e

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

EBIT (Total group incl assoc)

26.0

33.0

41.9

53.1

68.2

74.0

80.3

81.9

83.5

85.2

Tax

7.8

9.6

12.0

15.1

19.3

20.9

22.6

23.1

23.6

24.0

Depreciation

4.9

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

Amortisation

1.7

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Maintenance capex

4.4

3.8

4.2

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

6.3

6.3

6.3

Expansionary capex

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

0.0

Payment for acquisitions

-0.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Working capital movement

17.3

-4.6

-15.2

-22.4

-25.2

-10.8

-11.7

-11.9

-10.0

-10.0

Free cash flow

35.6

18.4

13.9

13.8

22.0

40.6

44.3

44.5

47.6

51.8

Growth (%)

-304.1%

-48.3%

-24.1%

-0.7%

58.6%

84.9%

9.2%

0.3%

7.0%

8.8%

EBITA

27.7

34.1

42.9

54.0

68.9

74.7

80.9

82.5

84.1

85.8

Terminal

Free cash flow

35.6

18.4

13.9

13.8

22.0

40.6

44.3

44.5

47.6

48.5

51.8

Discount

0.903

0.815

0.736

0.665

0.600

0.542

0.490

0.442

0.399

0.361

0.361

Discounted value

32.1

15.0

10.3

9.2

13.2

22.0

21.7

19.7

19.0

17.5

18.7

Terminal value

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

592.3

Sum of PV

179.6

Terminal value at FY26e

592.3

Discount factor

0.361

PV of terminal value

213.5

PV of enterprise

393.2

Debt

36.1

Net value for shareholder

357.0

Number of shares in issue

39.5

NPV

$9.03

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 6: Financial summary

NZ$000s

2014

2015

2016e

2016e

2017e

2018e

31 March/30 June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

31-Mar

31-Mar

31-Mar

30-Jun

30-Jun

30-Jun

Revenue

 

 

115,283

152,702

206,890

236,890

247,341

298,933

Cost of Sales

(54,924)

(81,150)

(107,410)

(122,985)

(128,795)

(155,236)

Gross Profit

60,359

71,552

99,480

113,905

118,546

143,696

EBITDA

 

 

15,785

22,804

32,596

37,322

39,382

48,262

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

13,192

19,934

28,161

32,122

35,425

44,276

Intangible Amortisation

(1,527)

(1,777)

(1,735)

(2,000)

(1,119)

(989)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

11,665

18,157

26,427

30,122

34,305

43,287

Net Interest

(564)

(3,668)

(2,059)

(2,574)

(2,548)

(2,495)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

12,628

16,266

26,102

29,548

32,877

41,780

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

11,101

14,489

24,367

27,548

31,757

40,791

Tax

(3,129)

(4,245)

(8,236)

(8,865)

(10,162)

(13,053)

Profit After Tax (norm)

9,499

12,021

17,866

20,684

22,714

28,727

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

7,972

10,244

16,132

18,684

21,595

27,738

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

31.3

34.6

39.5

39.5

39.5

39.5

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

25.5

29.9

45.2

52.3

57.5

72.7

EPS - (IFRS) (c )

 

 

25.5

29.6

40.8

47.3

54.6

70.2

Dividend per share (c)

12.0

13.0

18.0

18.0

23.0

28.0

Gross Margin (%)

52.4

46.9

48.1

48.1

47.9

48.1

EBITDA Margin (%)

13.7

14.9

15.8

15.8

15.9

16.1

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

11.4

13.1

13.6

13.6

14.3

14.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

93,277

106,615

107,549

106,674

109,294

111,478

Intangible Assets

40,558

43,112

44,114

40,996

42,995

42,006

Tangible Assets

39,174

48,417

52,083

50,592

53,655

55,405

Investments

13,545

15,086

11,352

15,086

12,644

14,067

Current Assets

 

 

55,469

93,107

118,075

99,693

132,429

151,360

Stocks

27,156

44,519

51,182

50,000

52,604

63,534

Debtors

22,362

28,895

34,767

30,000

41,565

50,235

Cash

2,865

19,420

31,196

19,420

37,331

36,662

Other

3,086

273

929

273

929

929

Current Liabilities

 

 

(21,276)

(32,418)

(27,500)

(32,030)

(31,094)

(35,537)

Creditors

(20,721)

(30,388)

(25,470)

(30,000)

(29,064)

(33,507)

Short term borrowings

(555)

(2,030)

(2,030)

(2,030)

(2,030)

(2,030)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(35,388)

(48,625)

(69,322)

(45,941)

(69,322)

(69,322)

Long term borrowings

(28,800)

(43,483)

(65,283)

(40,799)

(65,283)

(65,283)

Other long term liabilities

(6,588)

(5,142)

(4,039)

(5,142)

(4,039)

(4,039)

Net Assets

 

 

92,082

118,679

128,802

128,395

141,307

157,979

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

11,347

19,409

17,720

30,348

22,048

33,105

Net Interest

(1,774)

(2,926)

(3,102)

(2,574)

(2,548)

(2,495)

Tax

(1,052)

(4,513)

(9,049)

(8,865)

(10,162)

(13,053)

Capex

(11,301)

(8,897)

(7,375)

(7,375)

(6,821)

(7,159)

Acquisitions/disposals

(5,024)

(23,557)

116

116

0

0

Financing

9,454

24,723

(552)

(552)

0

0

Dividends

(3,983)

(3,976)

(8,416)

(8,416)

(9,090)

(11,066)

Net Cash Flow

(2,333)

263

(10,657)

2,684

(6,573)

(669)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

24,157

26,490

26,093

26,093

23,409

29,982

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

134

633

0

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

26,490

26,093

36,117

23,409

29,982

30,651

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research. Note: The period ending 30 June 2016 is for 15 months due to a change in the financial year end.

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United Kingdom

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New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

PharmaMar — Update 15 November 2015

PharmaMar

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