Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP4.65
▲ −5.50 (−1.17%)
Market capitalisation
GBP5,792m
Research: Industrials
The announcement about the expected impact of the GTF engine programme, in which Melrose has a 4% share, removes an uncertainty from the shares. The expected cost of £200m equates to 14p a share. While material at 2% of our valuation, it should not detract from the underlying attractions of a focused group serving the rapidly recovering aerospace market.
Melrose Industries |
Clarity on GTF helpful for investors |
GTF engine impact |
Aerospace and defence |
12 September 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analyst
Melrose Industries is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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The announcement about the expected impact of the GTF engine programme, in which Melrose has a 4% share, removes an uncertainty from the shares. The expected cost of £200m equates to 14p a share. While material at 2% of our valuation, it should not detract from the underlying attractions of a focused group serving the rapidly recovering aerospace market.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
2,957 |
62 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
121 |
0.5 |
12/23e |
3,410 |
288 |
16.8 |
4.2 |
29.5 |
0.8 |
12/24e |
3,605 |
415 |
24.9 |
6.3 |
19.9 |
1.3 |
12/25e |
4,068 |
616 |
37.5 |
9.4 |
13.2 |
1.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. FY22 restated post the Dowlais demerger.
RTX has announced the expected impact of the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issues. It previously disclosed powder metallurgy issues that had affected components on its PW1100G engines, which power the popular narrow-body A320neo. 600–700 engines will require off-wing workshop remediation. RTX estimate that its programme share of the operating profit impact is $3–3.5bn, with associated cash costs of $3.0bn in 2023–25.
Melrose has a 4% intertest in the GTF PW1100G programme, a combination of component supply and commercial interest in the overall programme, primarily through the aftermarket. There are no issues with the components supplied, but Melrose will share in the rectification costs through its investment in the programme. Management has announced that it expects a c £200m cash impact through to 2026 but does not anticipate any impact on the P&L, reflecting the group’s historical conservative accounting. Management has confirmed that this will not affect the recently announced interim dividend or £500m share repurchase programme.
Our forecasts are unchanged. As previously discussed, there is no impact on profit. The increased debt suggests a higher interest charge of c £12m on the total of £200m in 2027. Assuming half this figure in 2025, our outermost forecast year, we believe this is in the range of forecasting accuracy, particularly given the continued strength in aerospace. We now expect net debt to peak at c £1.1bn at end December 2024, depending on timing of the outflows, with net debt/EBITDA of 1.6x, up from 1.4x.
The valuation remains attractive. Our recent note, Building returns, included a valuation of 628p a share. The £200m cash impact equates to 14p a share and hence a reduction to 614p. It is worth noting that the decline in the share price means the enhancement from the share buyback could increase and dilution from the management incentive scheme reduce, providing some offset (we estimate c 10p at 500p versus Melrose’s previously assumed share price of 550p).
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Research: Healthcare
Respiri had a very active FY23, including the recent close of the Access Managed Services (Access) acquisition and the signing of several commercial contracts. These represent stepping stones to the company’s commercialisation phase, further supported by a strong client pipeline of ongoing contractual discussions, including with two US-based insurers and three accountable care organisations. As a result, management expects to break even by H2 CY24 (revised from end-CY24). Pro forma cash at 30 June 2023 was A$2.2m, bolstered by the A$3.9m fund raise in August 2023, which we estimate should support operations into Q424. We have adjusted our estimates to reflect FY23 results and Respiri’s recent activities, tempered for timing considerations (client onboarding and patient enrolment). Our valuation adjusts to A$164.6m or A$0.17/share (from A$164.2m or A$0.20/share, previously).