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Research: Industrials
The improving aerospace market, original equipment and aftermarket, combined with internal restructuring, are driving strong profit recovery. This is offering the potential for significant returns to Melrose shareholders as seen with the additional share buy-back announced.
Melrose Industries |
Building returns |
Interim results |
Aerospace and defence |
8 September 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Melrose Industries is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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The improving aerospace market, original equipment and aftermarket, combined with internal restructuring, are driving strong profit recovery. This is offering the potential for significant returns to Melrose shareholders as seen with the additional share buy-back announced.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
2,957 |
62 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
131.7 |
0.4 |
12/23e |
3,410 |
288 |
16.8 |
4.2 |
32.1 |
0.8 |
12/24e |
3,605 |
415 |
24.9 |
6.3 |
21.7 |
1.2 |
12/25e |
4,068 |
616 |
37.5 |
9.4 |
14.4 |
1.7 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. FY22 restated post the Dowlais demerger.
Results overview and forecast upgrade
Underlying sales grew 19% in H123, driven by strong recovery in Civil aerospace. A combination of operational gearing and mix, with more higher-margin aftermarket and increasing benefits from the restructuring programmes, drove strong Aerospace operating margins, up from 4.9% to 10.7%. The Engines division was the main driver, assisted by 46% growth in the higher-margin aftermarket business, with Structures posting strong top-line growth but margin upside still waiting for the benefits of the restructuring and contact repricing. PBT increased from £9m in H122 to £134m and EPS increased from 0.2p to 7.5p. The strong H1 has led management to upgrade Aerospace operating profit guidance by c 8% and, while there are no changes to medium-term 2025 expectations, due to the strength of the Engines division management has upgraded this division’s post 2025 margin expectations to over 30%. Our revised FY23 forecasts are EBIT of £350m (from £320m), PBT of £288m (from £264m) and EPS of 16.8p (from 15.4p).
Share buy-back
Melrose announced a £500m share buy-back programme to commence in October and to run over a 12-month period. We expect this to lead net debt to peak at c £1bn in 2024, yet, with the anticipated profit recovery, for net debt/EBITDA to be c 1.7x, comfortably below management’s stated policy threshold of 2.5x.
Management succession
Simon Peckham (CEO) and Geoffrey Martin (CFO) will step down on 7 March 2024 reflecting the change in strategy from a ‘buy, improve, sell’ industrial restructuring approach to a focused aerospace group. They will be replaced by internal appointments: Peter Dilnot, currently COO, will become CEO and Matthew Gregory, currently CFO GKN Aerospace, will become group CFO.
Valuation: 3% upgrade
Adjusting for the improved trading and higher debt at the half year leads to a valuation of 628p/share, up from 608p. This is before any impact from the buy-back (c 10p/share upside, assuming the buy-back is at current price) or crystallisation of the management incentive scheme due in May 2024 (maximum c 20p a share).
Interim results
Overall
Exhibit 1: Underlying results
H122 |
H222 |
H123 |
|
Sales (£m) |
1,364 |
1,591 |
1,633 |
Aerospace operating margin |
4.9% |
7.5% |
10.7% |
Group operating margin |
3.3% |
6.4% |
9.7% |
Operating profit (£m) |
45 |
102 |
159 |
Profit before tax (£m) |
9 |
53 |
134 |
EPS diluted (p) |
0.2 |
3.9 |
7.5 |
Source: Melrose
Sales growth for the period was 19% (15% including business being exited) driven by strong recovery in the Civil aerospace new build and aftermarket. A combination of operational gearing, mix, with more higher-margin aftermarket, and increasing benefits from the restructuring programmes drove strong margin recovery. This operational performance was levered further over the central costs and financing leading to strong EPS growth on both H122 and sequentially on H222.
The £134m underlying PBT translated to statutory loss of £62m. The key elements of the difference were £131m amortisation of intangibles, £49m of restructuring charges and £26m of equity settled compensation. There was also a loss recorded from the discontinued operations of £1.020bn reflecting the demerger of Dowlais completed in the period.
Engines division
Exhibit 2: Divisional underlying results – Engines division
H122 |
H222 |
H123 |
|
Sales (£m) |
484 |
551 |
608 |
Underlying operating profit (£m) |
77 |
85 |
149 |
Underlying margin |
15.9% |
15.4% |
24.5% |
Source: Melrose
In the Engines division, revenues increased 19%, with the aftermarket particularly strong, up 46% as both new build rates and flying hours continued to recover (flying hours are currently c 94% of pre COVID-19 levels). Operational drop through and mix with greater aftermarket assisted the margin expansion from 15.9% to 24.5%. Investment remains positive including £40m additive manufacturing facility investment in Sweden. The only negative came from the Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engine; Pratt & Whitney announced issues with particular components, requiring inspection and replacement. Melrose does not manufacture these components but, as a partner in the programmes (4% stake), is exposed to any associated costs and liabilities.
The outlook remains positive, particularly the investments in individual engine programmes (risk reward sharing partnerships) with the aftermarket expected to account for 85% of profits from 2025. In the shorter term, management expects slower growth in H223, reflecting the exceptional performance in H123, but for the margin to continue to strengthen.
Structures division
Exhibit 3: Divisional underlying results – Structures division
H122 |
H222 |
H123 |
|
Sales (£m) |
880 |
1,039 |
1,025 |
Underlying operating profit (£m) |
(10) |
34 |
26 |
Underlying margin |
-1.1% |
3.3% |
2.3% |
Source: Melrose
In the Structures division, revenues increased 18% (13% including business being exited) driven by Civil up 24%, with Defence up 6%. Operating profit improved from a loss in H122 to an operating margin of 2.3%. This has been driven by operational drop through, the benefits of the repricing certain Defence business (25% of business to be repriced has been completed) and benefits from the restructuring programme. The restructuring programme is expected to be largely completed in 2023 with two further plants to be closed, which will have significant benefits in 2024 on the road to the 9% target margin for 2025.
Investment continues to develop the business in the medium term, including the investment in China through a JV with COMAC and further investment in new technologies, including electric aircraft sub-systems and expansion of the hydrogen propulsion development with a multi partner £40m HyFIVE programme, on top of the H2GEAR programme already being undertaken.
Cash generation and financial position
Exhibit 4: Summary cash flow
£m |
|
Operating profit |
159 |
Depreciation & amortisation |
71 |
EBITDA |
230 |
Net change in working capital |
(169) |
Restructuring |
(53) |
Other |
(21) |
Operating cashflow |
(13) |
Net interest including leases |
(50) |
Tax |
(15) |
Capex |
(40) |
Net cash flow |
(118) |
Operating profit |
Depreciation & amortisation |
EBITDA |
Net change in working capital |
Restructuring |
Other |
Operating cashflow |
Net interest including leases |
Tax |
Capex |
Net cash flow |
£m |
159 |
71 |
230 |
(169) |
(53) |
(21) |
(13) |
(50) |
(15) |
(40) |
(118) |
Source: Melrose
Improving profitability has assisted cash generation although significant increases in working capital to support growth and cash spend from restructuring have held back net cash performance. Net debt increased to £553m at 30 June 2023, with leverage (net debt/EBITDA) of 1.5x. As part of the progressive dividend policy, management announced an interim dividend of 1.5p a share.
Outlook and guidance upgrade
The aerospace market is recovering strongly. This recovery, combined with the operational improvements, has led management to upgrade expectations for 2023 for the third time in the year, as well as increasing its medium-term margin expectations for the Engines business. The key elements are:
■
Full year 2023: management has increased Aerospace adjusted operating profit guidance from £350m to £375–385m, with improvements in both divisions but a greater contribution from Engines, reflecting the strong H1. There was no change to sales guidance for the year. Leverage is set to improve, reducing towards net debt/EBITDA of 1x for the year (before the buy-back was announced).
■
Beyond 2025: management expects the Engines division margins to increase above 30% post 2025. There was no further change to guidance for Structures (9% in 2025).
Forecast changes
The following changes to our estimates incorporate the improved operating performance and management guidance, along with the associated buy-back announced.
Exhibit 5: Summary forecast changes
£m |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
||||||
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
|
Revenues |
3,400 |
3,410 |
0.3% |
3,584 |
3,605 |
0.6% |
4,034 |
4,068 |
0.9% |
Normalised operating profit |
320 |
350 |
9.3% |
448 |
476 |
6.2% |
673 |
672 |
-0.1% |
Normalised operating profit margin |
9.4% |
10.3% |
0.8% |
12.5% |
13.2% |
0.7% |
16.7% |
16.5% |
-0.2% |
Normalised PBT |
264 |
288 |
9.0% |
388 |
415 |
7.1% |
616 |
616 |
-0.1% |
Normalised basic EPS (p) |
15.4 |
16.8 |
9.2% |
22.7 |
24.9 |
9.9% |
36.0 |
37.5 |
4.1% |
Dividend per share (p) |
3.9 |
4.2 |
8.9% |
5.7 |
6.3 |
11.1% |
9.0 |
9.4 |
4.1% |
Net cash/(debt) |
(529) |
(720) |
36.0% |
(499) |
(1,023) |
105.1% |
(258) |
(787) |
205.2% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Management changes
Simon Peckham (CEO) and Geoffrey Martin (CFO) will step down on 7 March 2024, reflecting the change in strategy of the group from a ‘buy, improve, sell’ industrial restructuring and value realisation approach to a focused aerospace group. Peter Dilnot, currently COO, will become CEO and Matthew Gregory, currently CFO GKN Aerospace, will become group CFO. Simon Peckham, Geoffrey Martin and Christopher Miller, an original founder, will not stand for re-election as directors at the 2024 AGM.
Valuation
Our valuation methodology remains unchanged (see previous note for additional details). We split the company into Structures and Engine component manufacture and the engine Risk Reward Sharing partnerships (RRSPs), which are longer-term profit and cash-generating investments on engine programmes.
Our valuation for the RRSPs is based on a long-term discounted cash flow (DCF) and remains unchanged at £5.3bn. However, the change to short-term forecasts has led us to upgrade our valuation for the main manufacturing activities based on a peer group valuation.
Exhibit 6: Aerospace ex RRSPs peer valuation
|
Currency |
Share price |
Market cap |
EV/EBIT (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
||||
|
|
Local |
£m |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
FACC |
€ |
6.3 |
246 |
27.1 |
15.3 |
11.3 |
8.7 |
6.9 |
5.9 |
Magellan |
C$ |
7.4 |
248 |
7.7 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.8 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
MTU |
€ |
213 |
9,815 |
15.2 |
13.8 |
12.1 |
10.9 |
10.0 |
9.0 |
Safran |
€ |
146 |
52,280 |
20.2 |
16.0 |
13.2 |
14.5 |
12.1 |
10.4 |
Senior |
GBp |
176 |
740 |
19.4 |
14.6 |
11.2 |
9.1 |
7.8 |
6.7 |
Spirit |
US$ |
21.0 |
1,760 |
N/A |
11.7 |
6.7 |
18.3 |
6.3 |
4.8 |
Triumph |
US$ |
9.1 |
556 |
11.8 |
9.7 |
8.7 |
9.5 |
8.0 |
7.2 |
Average |
15.2 |
12.3 |
9.8 |
11.0 |
7.9 |
6.8 |
|||
Melrose ex RRSPs (EBIT/EBITDA – £m) |
225 |
245 |
452 |
375 |
405 |
622 |
|||
Melrose ex RRSPs valuation (£m) |
3,415 |
3,028 |
4,424 |
4,110 |
3,214 |
4,221 |
|||
Source: Refinitiv (6/9/2023), Edison Investment Research
Putting these together, and allowing for the increase in net debt seen at the half year, adds 20p to our valuation. This is before taking into account the share buy-back, which, if undertaken at the current share price, would be positive, adding c 10p a share to our valuation, or adjusting for the management incentive scheme due to mature in May 2024, which, at the maximum pay-out, would reduce our valuation by c 20p a share.
Exhibit 7: Overall Melrose valuation
£m |
Old |
New |
Melrose ex RRSPs average of EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA |
3,393 |
3740 |
RRSPs DCF valuation |
5,300 |
5300 |
Melrose net cash/(debt) on demerger |
(484) |
(553) |
Melrose equity valuation |
8,209 |
8487 |
Number of shares in issue (m) |
1,351 |
1351 |
Value per Melrose share (p) |
608 |
628 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 8: Forecast summary
£m |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
|
Year to 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||
Revenue |
2,957 |
3,410 |
3,605 |
4,068 |
|
EBITDA |
292 |
505 |
638 |
842 |
|
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
147 |
350 |
476 |
||
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(260) |
(300) |
(300) |
(300) |
|
Exceptionals |
(157) |
(200) |
(50) |
(10) |
|
Reported operating profit |
(270) |
(150) |
126 |
362 |
|
Net Interest |
(85) |
(62) |
(61) |
(56) |
|
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
62 |
288 |
415 |
616 |
|
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
(355) |
(212) |
65 |
306 |
|
Reported tax |
99 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Profit After Tax (norm) |
48 |
227 |
328 |
487 |
|
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(256) |
(212) |
65 |
306 |
|
Minority interests |
(5) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Discontinued operations |
(80) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net income (normalised) |
43 |
227 |
328 |
487 |
|
Net income (reported) |
(341) |
(212) |
65 |
306 |
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
1,406 |
1,350 |
1,317 |
1,297 |
|
EPS - normalised (p) |
4.1 |
16.8 |
24.9 |
37.5 |
|
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
4.1 |
17.2 |
26.2 |
36.0 |
|
EPS - basic reported (p) |
(18.6) |
(15.7) |
5.0 |
23.6 |
|
Dividend (p) |
2.33 |
4.20 |
6.30 |
9.38 |
|
Revenue growth (%) |
8.5 |
15.4 |
10.1 |
12.5 |
|
Gross Margin (%) |
14.3 |
35.0 |
36.0 |
37.0 |
|
EBITDA Margin (%) |
9.9 |
14.8 |
17.7 |
20.7 |
|
Normalised Operating Margin |
5.0 |
10.3 |
13.2 |
16.5 |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||
Fixed Assets |
11,114 |
5,391 |
5,123 |
4,857 |
|
Intangible Assets |
6,882 |
3,498 |
3,198 |
2,898 |
|
Tangible Assets |
2,599 |
821 |
853 |
887 |
|
Investments & other |
1,633 |
1,072 |
1,072 |
1,072 |
|
Current Assets |
2,873 |
1,524 |
1,596 |
1,689 |
|
Stocks |
1,025 |
568 |
596 |
634 |
|
Debtors |
1,426 |
849 |
892 |
947 |
|
Cash & cash equivalents |
355 |
85 |
85 |
85 |
|
Other |
67 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
|
Current Liabilities |
2,978 |
1,564 |
1,607 |
1,670 |
|
Creditors |
2,347 |
1,248 |
1,311 |
1,394 |
|
Tax and social security |
141 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
|
Short term borrowings |
63 |
63 |
63 |
63 |
|
Other |
427 |
221 |
201 |
181 |
|
Long Term Liabilities |
3,841 |
1,676 |
1,372 |
831 |
|
Long term borrowings |
1,433 |
742 |
1,045 |
809 |
|
Other long term liabilities |
2,408 |
935 |
326 |
21 |
|
Net Assets |
7,168 |
3,675 |
3,740 |
4,046 |
|
Minority interests |
39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Shareholders' equity |
7,129 |
3,675 |
3,740 |
4,046 |
|
CASH FLOW |
|||||
Operating Cash Flow |
292 |
505 |
638 |
842 |
|
Working capital |
(148) |
(79) |
(52) |
(46) |
|
Exceptional & other |
(83) |
(170) |
(140) |
(80) |
|
Tax |
(8) |
(67) |
(87) |
(129) |
|
Net operating cash flow |
53 |
189 |
359 |
587 |
|
Capex |
(31) |
(190) |
(194) |
(204) |
|
Acquisitions/disposals |
(7) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net interest |
(82) |
(62) |
(54) |
(52) |
|
Equity financing |
0 |
(150) |
(350) |
0 |
|
Dividends |
(77) |
(20) |
(64) |
(95) |
|
Other |
|||||
Net Cash Flow |
(144) |
(233) |
(304) |
236 |
|
Opening net debt/(cash) |
343 |
487 |
720 |
1,023 |
|
Closing net debt/(cash) |
487 |
720 |
1,023 |
787 |
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Industrials
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