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Carbios — Update 24 October 2016

Carbios (EU: ALCRB)

Last close As at 05/08/2026

—

— 0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

—

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Carbios — Update 24 October 2016

Carbios

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Industrials

Carbios

Commercial progress and financial discipline

Company update

Alternative energy

24 October 2016

Price

€9.59

Market cap

€36m

Net cash (€m) at 30 June 2016

7.0

Shares in issue

3.8m

Free float

11%

Code

ALCRB

Primary exchange

Alternext

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(5.0)

2.2

(19.7)

Rel (local)

(7.1)

(1.5)

(17.6)

52-week high/low

€13.08

€9.10

Business description

Carbios develops enzyme-based processes for biodegradation and bioproduction of plastics, with a long-term aim of displacing current recycling and production practices.

Next events

FY16 results

April 2017

Analysts

Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Roger Johnston

+44 (020 3077 5722

Carbios is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Carbios has reported H116 results showing solid progress on scaling up and industrialisation, with good cash management. As expected, losses continue to increase during this process. Although we expect this pattern to continue to the end of the Thanaplast project in mid-2017, we believe that, with €7m net cash at 30 June, Carbios is sufficiently funded until the project’s completion. We have updated our forecasts and our valuation range is unchanged at €23-37 per share.

Year
end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

0.7

(3.3)

(59.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/15

0.8

(4.0)

(81.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/16e

9.2

3.1

124.3

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/17e

0.7

(4.4)

(93.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. FY16 forecasts include Carbiolice JV.

Solid results; we update our forecasts

Carbios reported H1 revenues of €556k, an operating loss of €2.4m and net loss of €1.5m, all of which is a better run rate than our forecast for the full year. We had forecast a 2016 operating loss of €5.6m and a net loss of €4.2m, as the company continues to scale up. As previously reported, Carbios formed a joint venture (JV) with Limagrain and Bpifrance in June. We have now updated our forecasts to reflect the interim results and the impact of the JV. With €8m upfront non-cash payment for the licensing agreement accounted as revenues (under French accounting standards as advised by management), our FY16 net income forecast increases to €4.7m (from a loss of €4.2m). However, our net cash outflow increases to €5.4m (from €4.7m), leaving an estimated €3.5m net cash at the end of 2016 post the expected €1.5m cash injection into the JV.

Commercialisation: A step ahead

The most important milestone during the first six months was the first commercial JV, Carbiolice, in partnership with Limagrain and Bpifrance in June. This was earlier than expected and shows good progress on commercialisation. Furthermore, Carbios has secured two important US patents, one on enzyme inclusion in plastics and one on PLA degradation, which also support future commercial efforts.

Cash discipline and funding in line with expectation

The company has shown continued cash discipline with cash usage in line with its target. It had €7.2m cash on hand at the end of June. A monthly cash burn rate of c €300k for the first half is in line with our expectations, which included €414k of capex. This confirms our view that the company should be funded through to the end of the Thanaplast project in 2017.

Valuation: Unchanged at €23-37 per share

We value Carbios on a DCF methodology with risk-weighted cash flows for its most important processes. This yields a fair value range of €23-37 per share based on different discount rates, with a base case value of €26 (WACC of 20%).

Recent developments

Carbiolice JV

As previously reported, in June 2016 Carbios entered into a joint venture partnership with Limagrain Céréales Ingrédients and the SPI “Industrial Projects Company” investment fund run by Bpifrance (a French government development bank). The JV will operate Carbios’s patented enzymatic biodegradation technology and will target the flexible films and rigid plastics markets. We understand that Carbios has received a non-cash payment of €8m (payable in shares of the JV) for the licensing of its patented technology. As per French accounting practice, we have recognised this non-cash payment as revenues in H216. Carbios will also receive royalty income, the amount which has not yet been disclosed. The contributions from partners will result in a total project value of €29.5m. The SPI fund will invest €11m over a four-year period to ultimately reach a 37% shareholding, whereas Carbios will initially contribute another €1.5m in FY16.

Solid interim results

Carbios reported solid H1 results: Revenues were €556k, the operating loss came in at €2.4m and the net loss was €1.5m. Revenues principally consisted of grant funding in line with achieved milestones, namely the conclusion of key stage four of the project, which leads to the launch of the pre-industrial stage. As expected, R&D expenses increased as the Thanaplast project continued and the company continued to scale up. This compares to our 2016 full year forecast (pre-Carbiolice JV) for revenues of €600k, an operating loss of €5.6m and a net loss of €4.2m. We also note a strong run rate on cash: total cash outflow was €1.8m for the six months. With that, the company had cash of €7.2m as at end June. Its monthly cash burn rate is about €300k per month, which leaves room for another €2m of cash outflows (allowing for the €1.5m Carbiolice cash injection mentioned above) in H2 for the company to be comfortably in line with our forecast net cash of €3.5m at year end. This also confirms our view that the company is fully funded to cover its cash requirements to the completion of the Thanaplast project in mid-2017.

Exhibit 1: H116 results

€000s

H115

H116

% change y-o-y

FY16e

FY17e

Revenues

452

556

23.01

9,200

653

EBIT

(1,941)

2,431

N/A

2,986

(4,379)

Net income

(1,307)

(1,536)

17.52

4,661

(3,487)

Net cash flow

(1,500)

(1,800)

20.00

(5,383)

(3,183)

Cash (gross) at end of period

9,011*

7,200

(20.00)

3,628

446

Source: Carbios, Edison Investment Research. Note: *As at 31 December 2015.

Update to our forecasts

We have updated our forecasts (see below) to reflect the interim results, as well as the impact of the new JV, Carbiolice, formed in June 2016. As mentioned earlier, Carbios has since received a non-cash upfront payment of €8m in the form of shares in the JV, but will also have to inject €1.5m of cash into the JV in H216, according to the partnership agreement. Accordingly, our revenue forecast is now €9.2m (from €600k), which feeds through to our EBIT forecast of €2.99m and net income of €4.7m for FY16. Our 2017 EBIT forecast increases marginally, to a loss of €4.379m (from a loss €4.387m) on the back of better assumed operating performance.

As most of the Carbiolice impact (other than the €1.5m cash injection) is non-cash, we now forecast operating cash outflow of €3.7m and net cash outflow of €5.4m (from €4.7m previously) and year-end net cash of €3.5m for FY16. This should cover cash outlay to the end of the Thanaplast project in mid-2017, according to our estimates.

Exhibit 2: Forecast changes

2016e

2017e

€000s

Old

New

Old

New

Revenues

600

9,200

653

653

EBIT

(5,596)

2,986

(4,387)

(4,379)

Net income

(4,188)

4,661

(3,492)

(3,487)

EPS (€)

(1.12)

1.24

(0.93)

(0.93)

Operating cash flow

(4,341)

(3,672)

(2,835)

(2,658)

Net cash flow

(4,707)

(5,383)

(3,360)

(3,183)

Net cash

4,122

3,446

812

314

Source: Carbios and Edison Investment Research

Commercial progress

The company has delivered some important operational progress in H1. Most importantly, it agreed its first joint venture, Carbiolice, in partnership with Limagrain and Bpifrance (see our outlook note of September 2016 and discussion above). It has also been granted two patents in the US, one for enzyme inclusion in plastics and one for PLA degradation. This is important for IP protection and future commercialisation, as it also enables the company to hand out very specific licences.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

Year end 31 December

€'000s

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

900

664

837

9,200*

653

Cost of Sales

(3,164)

(2,912)

(3,145)

(4,089)

(2,862)

Gross Profit

(2,264)

(2,248)

(2,308)

5,112

(2,209)

EBITDA

 

 

(3,077)

(3,283)

(3,896)

3,238

(4,119)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

(3,116)

(3,364)

(4,062)

2,986

(4,379)

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

9

15

(23)

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(3,107)

(3,349)

(4,085)

2,986

(4,379)

Net Interest

(0)

48

78

103

27

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(3,116)

(3,316)

(3,984)

3,089

(4,352)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(3,107)

(3,301)

(4,007)

3,089

(4,352)

Tax

961

1,091

936

1,571

866

Profit After Tax (norm)

(2,155)

(2,225)

(3,048)

4,661

(3,487)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(2,146)

(2,210)

(3,071)

4,661

(3,487)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

(57.8)

(59.3)

(81.3)

124.3

(93.0)

EPS - (IFRS) (€)

 

 

N/A

(0.6)

(0.8)

1.2

(0.9)

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

243

1,048

1,665

11,327

12,069

Intangible Assets

72

130

231

355

617

Tangible Assets

14

740

1,258

1,296

1,777

Investments (including JV)

157

178

176

9,676

9,676

Current Assets

 

 

16,113

12,684

10,377

5,552

1,595

Stocks

0

20

12

22

16

Debtors

1,401

1,402

1,224

1,772

1,003

Cash

14,598

11,099

9,011

3,628

446

Other

114

163

130

130

130

Current Liabilities

 

 

(1,110)

(196)

(337)

(414)

(235)

Creditors

(1,110)

(196)

(337)

(414)

(235)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(680)

(474)

(571)

(531)

(481)

Long term borrowings

(457)

(152)

(222)

(182)

(132)

Other long term liabilities

(223)

(322)

(349)

(349)

(349)

Net Assets

 

 

14,566

13,062

11,134

15,935

12,948

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(1,532)

(3,546)

(2,595)

(3,672)*

(2,658)

Net Interest

(0)

48

78

103

27

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(187)

(867)

(786)

(414)

(1,001)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

(1,500)

0

Financing

13,500

1,171

1,145

100

450

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

11,781

(3,194)

(2,158)

(5,383)

(3,183)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(2,360)

(14,141)

(10,947)

(8,789)

(3,446)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

40

50

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(14,141)

(10,947)

(8,789)

(3,446)

(314)

Source: Carbios and Edison Investment Research. *Note: FY16e revenues include a €8m non-cash payment treated as licensing revenues as per management guidance; this non-cash payment has been adjusted in the operating cash flow accordingly.

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Carbios and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Carbios and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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