Last close As at 05/08/2026
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GBP159m
Research: Real Estate
RGL’s acquisition of two property portfolios, first announced in early December, for an aggregate consideration of £93.4m including costs, completed just before Christmas. This followed the closing of a capital issue that raised £73m (gross) in new equity at 101p per share. The group has also completed a major refinancing programme, simplifying the debt structure and extending maturity, at no additional cost. We reinstate our estimates, including the acquisitions, which add immediately to earnings, and the capital increase. We also take a slightly more cautious approach to 2018 and have trimmed our previously above consensus position.
Regional REIT |
Asset growth and refinancing completed |
Completion of acquisitions |
Real estate |
16 January 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Regional REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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RGL’s acquisition of two property portfolios, first announced in early December, for an aggregate consideration of £93.4m including costs, completed just before Christmas. This followed the closing of a capital issue that raised £73m (gross) in new equity at 101p per share. The group has also completed a major refinancing programme, simplifying the debt structure and extending maturity, at no additional cost. We reinstate our estimates, including the acquisitions, which add immediately to earnings, and the capital increase. We also take a slightly more cautious approach to 2018 and have trimmed our previously above consensus position.
Year end |
Net rental |
EPRA |
EPRA NAV/ |
DPS |
P/EPRA |
Yield |
12/16 |
38.1 |
7.8 |
106.9 |
7.65 |
0.95 |
7.6 |
12/17e |
44.7 |
7.9 |
104.4 |
7.85 |
0.97 |
7.8 |
12/18e |
56.3 |
8.4 |
112.2 |
8.05 |
0.90 |
8.0 |
12/19e |
59.2 |
9.1 |
117.9 |
8.25 |
0.86 |
8.2 |
Note: *EPRA EPS is adjusted to exclude exceptional expenses and estimated performance fees.
Further portfolio growth and diversification
The two portfolios acquired are significant in scale and bring an immediate £7.8m uplift to the gross contracted rent roll (end-September 2017: £55.9m), offer significant asset management potential, and further diversify the portfolio. RGL estimates an ungeared 8.6% net initial yield off an overall 87% occupancy, with a reversionary yield above 10%. We have also assumed that the additional “pipeline investment”, an office property in Portsmouth included in the December announcement, proceeds to completion by end Q118, adding a further £400k to gross rent roll for a £4.9m investment.
Acquisition benefit offset by underlying revision
Assuming no uplift from asset management, the acquisitions have a broadly neutral impact on FY18e EPRA EPS. The refinancing significantly extends the debt profile (from 2.5 years to 6.2 years) with no material impact on cost. While the demand-supply balance in regional commercial property remains generally positive, we sense some caution among tenants regarding making longer-term commitments amid continuing Brexit uncertainty. We now assume a slower rate of occupancy improvement, reducing our above consensus estimates accordingly: FY18e EPRA EPS by 5%, EPRA NAV per share by 6%, and DPS by 4%. More positively, our forecast end-FY18 net LTV reduces to 44.1% from 45.5%, moving closer to management’s preferred medium-term level of around 40%.
Valuation: Sector-leading yield, fully covered
RGL’s prospective dividend yield of 7.8% is the highest of all UK REITs, while its price/EPRA NAV sits within the middle of the range despite a strong focus on asset management and the potential for capital gains. The geographic spread of its non-London portfolio, its sector and tenant diversity, and high asset yield all mitigate macroeconomic risks.
Forecasts reinstated
We temporarily suspended our estimates during the capital raise in December but are now able to reinstate these, including adjustment for the acquisitions, share issuance and refinancing. Looked at in isolation, these have a broadly neutral impact on FY18e EPS and slightly reduce EPRA NAV per share (largely as a result of property acquisition costs), while reducing LTV. We have also taken the opportunity to review our underlying forecast for FY18, and introduce an FY19 forecast for the first time. While occupier demand for regional property appears to be robust, and new supply continues to be constrained, we sense that amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly related to Brexit, some tenants are cautious with respect to entering into long-term commitments. While H217 will benefit from a full-period contribution from earlier acquisitions, and with the successful letting of major refurbishment projects representing a significant driver of rental income growth, we have taken a slightly more cautious view as to the pace at which occupancy may increase over the next 12 months. Not reflected in our forecasts is the possibility of additional acquisition-led growth.
The impact is to reduce our underlying (pre-acquisition) FY18e net rental income by c 3% with a somewhat more geared impact on adjusted EPRA EPS (-5%). Our revised estimates continue to show 7% growth in EPS versus FY17 and 3% growth in DPS, with cover increasing to 105%. Our newly introduced FY19 forecast assumes a continuation of recent trends, with EPS, DPS and dividend cover increasing further.
Exhibit 1: Forecast revisions
Net rental income (£m) |
EPRA EPS* (p) |
EPRA NAV (p) |
DPS (p) |
|||||||||
New |
Old |
% chg. |
New |
Old |
% chg. |
New |
Old |
% chg. |
New |
Old |
% chg. |
|
12/17e |
44.7 |
44.7 |
0% |
7.9 |
7.9 |
0% |
104.4 |
108.8 |
-4% |
7.85 |
7.85 |
0% |
12/18e |
56.3 |
49.8 |
13% |
8.4 |
8.9 |
-5% |
112.2 |
118.8 |
-6% |
8.05 |
8.35 |
-4% |
12/18e |
59.2 |
N/A |
N/A |
9.1 |
N/A |
N/A |
117.9 |
N/A |
N/A |
8.25 |
N/A |
N/A |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *EPRA EPS is adjusted to exclude exceptional expenses and estimated performance fees.
The two portfolios acquired consist of 20 properties, all UK regional offices with a relatively high weighting to the south-east. They came too late in FY17 to have any impact on rental income but are included in our revised FY18 forecast from the beginning of the year. These add £7.8m in gross rental income, to which we add an additional £400k from end-Q118, assuming completion of the pipeline asset, an office property in Portsmouth.
We have included the new £19.4m debt facility in respect of the First New Portfolio acquired (the office properties in Woking, Cheshunt and Edinburgh) that management has indicated it intends to put in place soon after completion. This will be provided by RBS at 2% above Libor, with £2.0m of the proceeds directed towards the acquisition of the Portsmouth pipeline property. We have not yet included the additional new facility that management expects to agree in respect of the Second New Portfolio acquired, with Santander, at a fixed rate of 2.15%. To add this to our forecasts at this stage would create an unlikely cash drag on earnings as we have not assumed any ongoing acquisition activity.
The end-FY17 NAV is negatively affected by the estimated £5.1m costs of acquisition (reflected in the net revaluation line of the P&L) related to the two portfolios as well as by the costs related to the refinancing that management has guided to. Reflecting our slightly more cautious assumptions for operational improvement in FY18, we have slightly reduced our projected revaluation gain. The net effect of all of the changes that we have made is to increase FY18e investment property assets by c 14%, adjusted earnings by c 17% and EPRA net assets by c 17%. The capital raising saw 77.3m new shares issued at 101p, taking the total number of outstanding shares to 372.8m.
Gross debt as at 30 September was £335.4m. Of the total, the zero dividend preference (ZDP) shares acquired with the Conygar acquisition represent c £36m. These carry a yield of 6.5% until their maturity in January 2019. Of the remaining c £300m in bank debt, a £47.8m secured facility with Santander, due to mature in December 2018, was refinanced in November 2017 with a new five-year secured Santander facility. On 12 December, the larger refinancing of five secured facilities with a new £165m secured 10-year facility was completed. The new facility with Scottish Widows and Aviva Real Estate Finance was arranged by RBS. The fixed rate on the new facility will be set at drawdown and will be between 3.3% and 3.4%. The average maturity of all of the group’s debt facilities increases from 2.5 years to 6.2 years as a result of the refinancing with no significant impact on the cost of debt, which remains at c 3.80% on average.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
Year end 31 December |
£000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
2019e |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|||
Gross rental income |
5,361 |
42,994 |
51,042 |
62,844 |
65,506 |
|||
Non-recoverable property costs |
(754) |
(4,866) |
(6,370) |
(6,569) |
(6,348) |
|||
Revenue |
|
|
4,608 |
38,128 |
44,672 |
56,276 |
59,159 |
|
Administrative expenses (excluding performance fees) |
(1,353) |
(7,968) |
(8,557) |
(10,702) |
(10,965) |
|||
EBITDA |
|
|
3,255 |
30,160 |
36,115 |
45,573 |
48,194 |
|
Gain on disposal of investment properties |
87 |
518 |
(41) |
6,500 |
0 |
|||
Change in fair value of investment properties |
23,784 |
(6,751) |
4,838 |
22,410 |
15,709 |
|||
Operating profit before financing costs |
|
|
27,126 |
23,927 |
40,912 |
74,483 |
63,903 |
|
Performance fees |
0 |
(249) |
(1,986) |
(1,632) |
0 |
|||
Exceptional items |
(5,296) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Finance income |
177 |
193 |
207 |
120 |
123 |
|||
Finance expense |
(997) |
(8,822) |
(15,328) |
(14,263) |
(14,304) |
|||
Net movement in the fair value of derivative financial investments and impairment of goodwill |
115 |
(1,654) |
168 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Profit Before Tax |
|
|
21,124 |
13,395 |
23,972 |
58,708 |
49,721 |
|
Tax |
0 |
23 |
(11) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
21,124 |
13,418 |
23,961 |
58,708 |
49,721 |
|
Adjusted for the following: |
||||||||
Performance fees |
0 |
249 |
1,986 |
1,632 |
0 |
|||
Exceptional items |
5,296 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Net gain/(loss) on revaluation |
(23,784) |
6,751 |
(4,838) |
(22,410) |
(15,709) |
|||
Net movement in the fair value of derivative financial investments |
(180) |
865 |
(447) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Gain on disposal of investment properties |
(86) |
(518) |
41 |
(6,500) |
0 |
|||
Profit before Tax (norm) |
|
|
2,371 |
20,765 |
20,703 |
31,430 |
34,013 |
|
Period end number of shares (m) |
274.2 |
274.2 |
372.8 |
372.8 |
372.8 |
|||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
274.2 |
274.4 |
294.5 |
372.8 |
372.8 |
|||
Fully diluted average number of shares outstanding (m) |
274.2 |
274.4 |
294.5 |
372.8 |
372.8 |
|||
IFRS EPS - fully diluted (p) |
|
|
7.7 |
4.9 |
8.1 |
15.7 |
13.3 |
|
EPRA EPS - adjusted (p) |
|
|
0.9 |
7.8 |
7.9 |
8.4 |
9.1 |
|
EPRA EPS (p) |
|
|
(1.1) |
7.7 |
6.4 |
8.0 |
9.1 |
|
Dividend per share (p) - declared basis |
|
|
1.00 |
7.65 |
7.85 |
8.05 |
8.25 |
|
Dividend cover |
N/A |
102% |
100% |
105% |
111% |
|||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Non-current assets |
|
|
407,492 |
506,401 |
751,696 |
783,005 |
806,714 |
|
Investment properties |
403,703 |
502,425 |
748,229 |
779,538 |
803,247 |
|||
Other non-current assets |
3,790 |
3,976 |
3,467 |
3,467 |
3,467 |
|||
Current Assets |
|
|
35,803 |
27,574 |
25,814 |
32,479 |
34,505 |
|
Trade and other receivables |
11,848 |
11,375 |
14,039 |
16,455 |
17,042 |
|||
Cash and equivalents |
23,954 |
16,199 |
11,775 |
16,024 |
17,464 |
|||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(21,485) |
(23,285) |
(34,360) |
(39,632) |
(40,158) |
|
Trade and other payables |
(12,576) |
(14,601) |
(20,736) |
(23,853) |
(23,858) |
|||
Bank and loan borrowings - current |
(200) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other current liabilities |
(8,709) |
(8,684) |
(13,623) |
(15,779) |
(16,300) |
|||
Non-current liabilities |
|
|
(126,469) |
(218,955) |
(354,184) |
(358,004) |
(361,824) |
|
Bank borrowings |
(126,469) |
(217,442) |
(315,829) |
(317,029) |
(318,229) |
|||
Zero dividedn preference shares (ZDP) |
0 |
0 |
(37,320) |
(39,940) |
(42,560) |
|||
Other non-current liabilities |
0 |
(1,513) |
(1,035) |
(1,035) |
(1,035) |
|||
Net Assets |
|
|
295,341 |
291,735 |
388,966 |
417,848 |
439,237 |
|
Derivative interest rate swaps |
416 |
1,513 |
963 |
963 |
961 |
|||
EPRA net assets |
|
|
295,757 |
293,248 |
389,929 |
418,811 |
440,198 |
|
IFRS NAV per share (p) |
107.7 |
106.4 |
104.3 |
112.1 |
117.8 |
|||
Fully diluted EPRA NAV per share (p) |
107.8 |
106.9 |
104.4 |
112.2 |
117.9 |
|||
LTV |
-5.9% |
40.6% |
46.1% |
44.1% |
42.6% |
|||
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Cash (used in)/generated from operations |
|
|
(2,232) |
31,434 |
37,823 |
46,798 |
48,136 |
|
Net finance expense |
(424) |
(6,626) |
(9,052) |
(10,323) |
(10,361) |
|||
Tax paid |
0 |
(1,715) |
51 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Net cash flow from operations |
|
|
(2,656) |
23,093 |
28,822 |
36,475 |
37,774 |
|
Net investment in investment properties |
1,157 |
(99,286) |
(111,390) |
(2,400) |
(8,000) |
|||
Acquisition of subsidiaries, net of cash acquired |
26,659 |
(5,573) |
209 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other investing activity |
13 |
60 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Net cash flow from investing activities |
|
|
27,828 |
(104,799) |
(111,173) |
(2,400) |
(8,000) |
|
Equity dividends paid |
0 |
(15,723) |
(17,834) |
(29,826) |
(28,334) |
|||
Bank debt drawn/(repaid) |
(1,217) |
91,417 |
28,665 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other financing activity |
0 |
(1,744) |
67,096 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Net cash flow from financing activity |
|
|
(1,217) |
73,950 |
77,927 |
(29,826) |
(28,334) |
|
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
23,955 |
(7,756) |
(4,424) |
4,249 |
1,440 |
|
Opening cash |
0 |
23,955 |
16,199 |
11,775 |
16,024 |
|||
Closing cash |
|
|
23,955 |
16,199 |
11,775 |
16,024 |
17,464 |
|
Closing debt |
(126,669) |
(217,442) |
(353,149) |
(356,969) |
(360,789) |
|||
Closing net debt |
|
|
(102,714) |
(201,243) |
(341,374) |
(340,945) |
(343,325) |
|
Source: Regional REIT accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Investment Companies
Henderson Far East Income’s (HFEL) lead fund manager, Mike Kerley, welcomes the resumption of earnings growth in the region after five years of stagnation. He says that attractive opportunities still abound in his favoured areas of cash-generative companies offering high dividend growth potential or high yields, with the recent rise in P/E ratios across the region only partially addressing the longstanding undervaluation versus the rest of the world. The portfolio currently has a cyclical tilt, with more in financials and consumer stocks and less in utilities and telecoms, yet HFEL still pays a high yield (currently 5.4%), fully covered by income. The fund has tended to trade at a small premium to NAV and issues shares to meet demand. The recent introduction of a tiered management fee above £400m will reduce total expenses for investors as HFEL grows.