Both cyclical and structural factors drove strong revenue growth in H119 (adjusted revenues up 32% y-o-y, above our expectations) which, combined with efficiency gains and economies of scale, led to EBITDA growth of 67% y-o-y and net income almost doubling. We forecast growth to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace, as we expect a stabilisation in rail container transportation prices. We have significantly increased our forecasts, which drives a 33% increase in our valuation to RUB9,460/share.
Written by
TransContainer |
Another beat, with structural and cyclical drivers |
Q2/H119 results |
General industrials |
11 September 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
TransContainer is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Both cyclical and structural factors drove strong revenue growth in H119 (adjusted revenues up 32% y-o-y, above our expectations) which, combined with efficiency gains and economies of scale, led to EBITDA growth of 67% y-o-y and net income almost doubling. We forecast growth to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace, as we expect a stabilisation in rail container transportation prices. We have significantly increased our forecasts, which drives a 33% increase in our valuation to RUB9,460/share.
Year end |
Revenue (RUBm) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
27,782 |
8,147 |
448 |
293 |
20.1 |
3.2 |
12/18 |
31,288 |
10,263 |
561 |
480 |
16.1 |
5.3 |
12/19e |
40,229 |
17,248 |
984 |
484 |
9.2 |
5.4 |
12/20e |
47,858 |
22,021 |
1,252 |
626 |
7.2 |
6.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
H1 results boosted by volume and price growth
In H119, TransContainer experienced strong volume and price increases, which led to strong revenue and profit growth, ahead of our expectations. Adjusted revenues grew 32% y-o-y and net income almost doubled to RUB6.1bn. TransContainer benefited from strong cyclical growth in certain industries, such as the timber (+34% y-o-y transported volumes for TransContainer) and auto and components industries (+22% y-o-y), which represent a large portion of the volumes transported albeit a limited share of Russian GDP.
Forecasts raised again
TransContainer has consistently beat our expectations over the last 12 months and we increase our forecasts again following the H119 results (revenue up 10% in FY19 and 16% in FY20, and net income up 29% in FY19 and 44% in FY20). We believe the structural trend towards containerisation should continue to support growth. However, our forecasts reflect some moderation in revenue growth rates vs H1 (+32% y-o-y) to reflect the risks to the Russian economy and the likely stabilisation in prices. We now expect 26% adjusted revenue growth in H219 and a 16% increase in FY20.
Valuation: Share price doubled but multiples little changed
TransContainer’s share price has continued to rise since the Q1 results and has now doubled year to date. We believe the recent strong results and the increase in future earnings expectations were the key drivers. However, the share price rise was not accompanied by a large re-rating, with the stock still trading at c 9x 2019e P/E. Hence, despite the share price rise, the stock remains at a discount to peers in both emerging markets and developed markets, which is at least partly explained by the limited liquidity, in our view. Following our forecasts revisions, we have significantly increased our DCF-based valuation to RUB9,460 /share (from RUB7,100/share). If the auction to sell a 50% stake in TransContainer to a Russian investor on 27 November 2019 results in an increased free float for the stock, we would see room for a re-rating.
Structural and cyclical drivers support FY19 results
We believe TransContainer is benefiting from both cyclical and structural growth trends in FY19. The two drivers combined led to a very strong revenue pick-up in H119 (adjusted revenue was up 32% y-o-y), which, compounded with economies of scale, led to EBITDA growth of 67% y-o-y and net income almost doubling. We forecast growth to continue, albeit at more moderate pace, reflecting our expectations of a stabilisation in prices but continued volume growth. We have significantly increased our forecasts, which has led us to increase our DCF-based valuation by 33% to RUB9,460/share.
Q2/H119: Another strong set of results
TransContainer reported another strong set of results, with:
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Total revenues for H119 of RUB41.5bn, up 17% y-o-y (with Q2 revenues growing strongly, up 15% y-o-y, albeit slower than Q1’s 20% y-o-y). Adjusted revenues (net of subcontractors’ charges) were up 32% y-o-y to RUB18.5bn. As revenue-generating transportation volumes grew 11.2%, revenues also benefited from significant price growth.
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H119 EBITDA grew 67% to RUB9.4bn with margins expanding to 50.7% from 40.0% one year earlier. We believe this expansion was driven by economies of scale and other efficiency gains, including a higher proportion of containers transported in block trains, for which TransContainer receives a discount from Russian Railways as these trains take up less capacity on the railway.
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H119 profit before tax grew 91% to RUB7.7bn thanks to slower growth in adjusted operating expenses (+11% y-o-y) than revenues.
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H119 net income almost doubled to 6.1bn (vs RUB3.2bn one year earlier).
Based on TransContainer data, the H1 growth was strengthened by a strong pick-up in orders from South Korea and China. While Russia represents 80% of H119 total sales (Exhibit 1), it explains only 46% of the year-on-year sales increase (Exhibit 2), with the rest of the growth driven mostly by China and South Korea.
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Exhibit 1: H1 total sales split by client location |
Exhibit 2: Increase in H1 total sales by client location |
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Source: TransContainer data, Edison Investment Research |
Source: TransContainer data, Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 1: H1 total sales split by client location |
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Source: TransContainer data, Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 2: Increase in H1 total sales by client location |
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Source: TransContainer data, Edison Investment Research |
Macroeconomic and industry context
TransContainer’s ability to attract orders outside of Russia is sustaining its growth while the domestic economy is weak. Both the market and TransContainer benefited from strong cyclical growth in certain industries, such as the timber (+34% y-o-y transported volumes for TransContainer) and auto and components industries (+22% y-o-y), which represent a large portion of the volumes transported albeit a limited share of Russian GDP (timber volumes represent c 20% of TransContainer’s volumes, while auto and components c 7%).
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Exhibit 3: Percentage change in transported volumes by type of cargo |
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Source: TransContainer |
Total volumes for Russian rail container transportation increased significantly in H1 (+15.1% y-o-y) and July rail container volumes were up 10.5% y-o-y (Exhibit 4). The growth rate is well above the historical CAGR of 9.3% (2001–18). TransContainer maintains the highest market share in rail-based container transportation in Russia, with a 42% share in H119, albeit this reduced three percentage points vs the previous year.
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Exhibit 4: Russian monthly rail container transportation volumes |
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Source: TransContainer, RZD Information Centre |
The strong growth in transported volumes and TransContainer’s business is at odds with the evolution of the Russian economy. Russian GDP grew by only 0.9% y-o-y in Q2, only slightly stronger than Q1’s +0.5% y-o-y. With slow economic growth and a slowdown in inflation, the Russian central bank cut interest rates again at the end of July and once more in September. Most forecasts expect a rebound in economic growth next year, thanks to increased government spending as Russia targets an extra RUB25.7tn (c US$390bn) by 2024 to boost infrastructure, healthcare and education. However, there are significant uncertainties around the timing of the increased government spending. In this respect, TransContainer’s ability to grow internationally through increased sales to other Asian customers (mostly China) increases the resilience of its business model and reduces risks for the company.
In addition to the cyclical drivers set out above, we believe TransContainer continues to enjoy structural growth from containerisation, which we believe should support revenue and profit growth for the company in the coming years. Currently, only c 7% of Russia’s potentially containerisable rail cargo is transported in containers, and although this figure rose from 2.2% in 2001, it is still much lower than in the US (18%), India (16%) and Europe (14%).
Even though timber transport volumes were a key driver for TransContainer in H1, we note that the Russian government has recently threatened to ban timber exports to China unless the country cooperates to mitigate the impact of illegal timber logging in Russia (Reuters 15 August 2019); reduced timber exports would have a negative impact on TransContainer’s business (these volumes represent c 20% of volumes transported in H119). We currently assume no impact from the potential export ban.
Forecasts increased significantly
We previously expected a moderation in revenue growth in the remaining quarters of FY19, reflecting the risks from a slowing Russian economy, but growth continued to be very strong in Q2 and ahead of our expectations. TransContainer has consistently beat our forecasts over the last 12 months and we increase our forecasts again following the recent results.
Exhibit 5: Forecasts changes
RUBm |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
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Adjusted revenue |
New |
31,288 |
40,229 |
47,858 |
Old |
36,480 |
41,090 |
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% change |
10% |
16% |
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EBIT |
New |
10,415 |
17,779 |
23,122 |
Old |
14,304 |
16,901 |
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% change |
24% |
37% |
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Net income |
New |
9,509 |
13,456 |
17,396 |
Old |
10,445 |
12,072 |
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% change |
29% |
44% |
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Net debt |
New |
1,779 |
7,661 |
10,415 |
Old |
8,256 |
17,064 |
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% change |
-7% |
-39% |
Source: TransContainer data, Edison Investment Research
We believe the structural trend towards containerisation should continue to support growth. However, our forecasts reflect some moderation in growth rates vs H1 (+32% y-o-y) to reflect the risks to the Russian economy and the likely stabilisation in rail container transportation prices. We project 26% adjusted revenue growth in H219 and a 16% increase in FY20.
Research: TMT
Boku reported 39% year-on-year revenue growth in H1: 19% growth from the Payments business was boosted by the newly acquired Identity business. This translated to 69% growth in EBITDA and 64% growth in normalised operating profit, despite investment in the Identity business. Management expects a stronger H2 and is maintaining FY19 guidance. We have taken a more cautious approach to our Identity forecasts reflecting longer sales cycles; this reduces our FY19–21 forecasts, although we expect the company to meet FY19 guidance.