RUB120467.6m market cap
RUB8670 last close
TransContainer owns and operates rail freight assets across Russia. Its assets comprise rail flatcars, handling terminals and trucks, through which it provides integrated end-to-end freight forwarding services to its customers.
Investment summary
Both cyclical and structural factors drove strong revenue growth in H119 (adjusted revenues up 32% y-o-y, above our expectations) which, combined with efficiency gains and economies of scale, led to EBITDA growth of 67% y-o-y and net income almost doubling. We forecast growth to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace, as we expect a stabilisation in rail container transportation prices. We have significantly increased our forecasts, which drives a 33% increase in our valuation to RUB9,460/share.
Y/E Dec |
Revenue (RUBm) |
EBITDA (RUBm) |
PBT (RUBm) |
EPS (fd) (RUB) |
P/E (x) |
P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017A | 27782.0 | 10252.0 | 8147.0 | 448.2 | 1934.4 | 1129.5 |
| 2018A | 31288.0 | 13342.0 | 10263.0 | 560.9 | 1545.7 | 844.7 |
| 2019E | 40229.0 | 21542.0 | 17248.0 | 983.9 | 881.2 | 536.0 |
| 2020E | 47858.0 | 27599.0 | 22021.0 | 1252.0 | 692.5 | 419.6 |
| Last updated on 18/09/2019 | ||||||
Industry outlook
Containerisation is a structural trend for the Russian market and should support revenue and profit growth for TransContainer, in our view. Currently, only c 7% of Russia’s potentially containerisable rail cargo is transported in containers and, although this figure rose from 2.2% in 2001, it is still much lower than in the US (18%), India (16%) and Europe (14%).
Last updated on 18/09/2019
Sector |
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| Industrials |
Share price graph
Balance sheet |
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| Forecast net debt (RUBm) | 7661 |
| Forecast gearing ratio (%) | 14 |
Price performance
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Key management |
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| Alexander Shakhanov | Deputy Director for Capital Markets & IR |
