Last close As at 05/08/2026
—
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
—
Research: Real Estate
As a family run business, Town Centre Securities (TCS) has a strong focus on dividend returns and has increased or maintained DPS in each of the last 58 years, while investing for growth. H119 saw further progress with ongoing portfolio repositioning, targeting increased income resilience while recycling capital to unlock the sizeable future growth and diversification opportunity in the development pipeline. Retail & leisure assets have reduced to 52% of the total from 70% in 2016. We will review our estimates with the interim results in February, but note that a handful of retail tenant failures are likely to have a modest negative impact on near-term income while retail capital values appear to be softening.
Town Centre Securities |
Adding resilience and recycling for growth |
Trading update |
Real estate |
25 January 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Town Centre Securities is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
As a family run business, Town Centre Securities (TCS) has a strong focus on dividend returns and has increased or maintained DPS in each of the last 58 years, while investing for growth. H119 saw further progress with ongoing portfolio repositioning, targeting increased income resilience while recycling capital to unlock the sizeable future growth and diversification opportunity in the development pipeline. Retail & leisure assets have reduced to 52% of the total from 70% in 2016. We will review our estimates with the interim results in February, but note that a handful of retail tenant failures are likely to have a modest negative impact on near-term income while retail capital values appear to be softening.
Year |
Net revenue (£m) |
EPRA |
EPRA |
EPRA NAV/ |
DPS |
P/NAV |
Yield |
06/17 |
19.4 |
7.0 |
13.2 |
359 |
11.5 |
0.63 |
5.0 |
06/18 |
19.3 |
6.9 |
13.0 |
384 |
11.8 |
0.59 |
5.2 |
06/19e |
20.5 |
6.8 |
12.9 |
392 |
11.8 |
0.58 |
5.2 |
06/20e |
20.9 |
7.2 |
13.5 |
399 |
12.1 |
0.57 |
5.3 |
06/21e |
21.2 |
7.6 |
14.3 |
418 |
12.5 |
0.55 |
5.5 |
Note: *EPRA EPS is adjusted to exclude revaluation movements, disposal gains/(losses) on investment property and exceptional items.
Progress with strategy
H119 saw TCS continue to unlock the value of its development pipeline, particularly focused on offices and residential assets, manage a challenging retail environment, and grow car parking profits. Occupancy increased to 96% (FY18: 95%), with passing rent up 0.9% y-o-y on a l-f-l basis, supported by the updated long let to Leeds City Council of Merrion House, also the subject of an innovative refinancing. The £13.2m sale of a Rochdale retail park further reduced retail & leisure exposure, resulting in a greater focus on more resilient supermarket and convenience retailing. Retail & leisure CVAs and insolvencies have affected 2.5% of the rent roll in the past 12 months, but the majority of affected units have already been re-let at higher rents to quality tenants.
We will review estimates with interim results
H119 progress on capital recycling and with the development pipeline is consistent with our medium-term forecasts, which capture only a small element of the larger opportunity. Compared with our existing current year forecast, the Rochdale disposal will crystallise a small (c £0.8m) loss on disposal, while retail tenant turnover is likely to be a modest drag (c £250k) on income through temporary voids and related costs, despite the re-letting at higher rents. The valuation impact is uncertain and sector-wide retail values have softened, particularly for secondary high street assets and shopping centres, while Brexit remains a more general cause of uncertainty. We estimate that based on market consensus data, softening yields may affect our forecast FY19e NAV per share by c 19p (see page 4).
Valuation: Strong dividend track record
TCS yields a prospective 5.2% and shares trade at a significant discount to FY18 EPRA NAV of c 40%. A combination of income and capital growth is reflected in five-year annual average NAV total return (to end-FY18) of a compound 10.4%.
Further details and analysis
Rebalancing progress
Capital recycling is a key element of the TCS strategy and we estimate that since the beginning of FY17, the company has disposed of c 10% of the portfolio. This has freed capital from mature assets for strategic repurchases and investment in the development pipeline, while broadly maintaining profitability and increasing capital values. During this process, the portfolio (c £400m at end-FY18) has undergone a significant sector repositioning, becoming increasingly diversified and mixed use, and that process is continuing. Retail and leisure remains the single largest sector weight, but with the most recent purchase and sales activity, including the £13.2m disposal of the Rochdale Central Retail Park, it has been actively reduced to 52% (by value) compared with 55% at end-FY17 and 70% two years before that.
Reinvestment has included standing asset acquisitions and development projects from the significant pipeline of opportunities available to the company from its already owned asset base. These include delivery of the Merrion House office development (February 2018), the Premier Inn in Leeds (February 2017), and the ibis Styles hotel with restaurant (April 2017). Included in our medium-term forecasting, the Burlington House residential scheme is on track for practical completion in May 2019, to be followed by a second private residential sector (PRS) development, Eider House, where ground works are expected to commence this year, while the George St JV with Leeds City Council (aparthotel with ground floor units) has received detailed planning consent, with work also expected to commence this year.
In addition to the development projects captured by our forecasts, the further development opportunities that TCS has identified within its existing asset base represent a gross development value of well over £500m, with significant potential to further enhance earnings and NAV beyond that which we have forecast. Management continues to consider how quickly to proceed and how best to fund these, most likely to involve ongoing capital recycling and potential access to new capital resources. For a more detailed description and analysis, see our update note published on 12 October 2018.
Retail & leisure exposure more targeted as well as smaller
The retail and leisure portfolio itself has also become increasingly targeted by format and location. Exhibit 1 shows the end-FY18 position, which will have changed subsequently with the Rochdale sale and some other smaller transactions. The retail & leisure tenant base has retained its diversification, and although at end-FY18 the top 10 retail tenants represent 29% of the retail & leisure property income, almost half of this was accounted for by Waitrose and Morrisons, along with many other good-quality covenants. The proportion of more resilient supermarket and convenience retailing has increased with the Rochdale sale. The Merrion Centre is the largest individual retail & leisure destination, which in addition includes office and car parking space. It is well-placed in the centre of Leeds, and has been transformed over the past 10 years from a classical shopping centre to a truly mixed-use destination. Delivery of the Merrion House office development (February 2018) and the ibis Styles hotel with restaurant (April 2017) has continued the process, with reliance on traditional ‘mall’ retail falling to less than 25%. The ‘mall’ assets have a focus on convenience and discount formats, which has proved a successful positioning for the location, which includes a significant student population.
|
Exhibit 1: Spread of retail & leisure assets at 30 June 2018 |
|
|
Source: TCS. Note: Retail & leisure assets only, by value. |
The Rochdale disposal will have no material impact on our existing income forecasts, which already assumed asset disposals and an annualised £1.1m rent roll impact (Rochdale: £1.15m). Similarly, our forecasts capture the previously announced acquisitions of The Cube in Leeds for £12.8m, a retail unit in Gordon Street, Glasgow, for £2.6m, and a retail/residential unit on Chiswick High Road, London for £1.7m. TCS says that in total these acquisitions will generate ongoing annual income of more than £1.4m, which allows for 2019 and 2020 lease expiries at The Cube.
Modest income impact from retail stress
TCS has seen some disruption from the recent wave of retail and leisure administrations, but says that active asset management will actually result in a rise in ongoing rents due to an enhanced mix of replacement tenants. It has been affected by eight CVAs or insolvencies from tenants in the past 12 months, involving eight units representing c 2.5% of the rent roll. By December 2018, six of these units had already been re-let to tenants including Iceland and The Works, at rents ahead of the previous levels. The two units most recently vacated, accounting for just c 0.5% of rent roll, are currently being actively marketed. The ability of TCS to re-let vacated space at a premium to previous rents is consistent with our medium-term forecasts, although in the near term, temporary void periods and related costs are likely to have a negative impact on income earnings, albeit relatively small. Based on a total rent roll of £23.4m at 30 June, the 2.5% of affected rents represents annualised rents of almost £600k. Allowing for a relatively fast re-letting of four months, the void period would represent rental income foregone of c £200k. Allowing for the loss of rechargeable property expenses, the total negative impact may well be c £250k.
More generally, across the entire portfolio, rent collection remains strong. Rents are mostly collected a quarter in advance and across the portfolio, and for H119 99% of rents were collected within a week of the quarter commencing.
Capital values have become more uncertain
Our forecasts typically make no assumption about yield shifts, but we do include a benefit from the assumed 1% pa rental growth across the portfolio, as well as expected development gains. With pressures on the broad retail sector increasing, and as already reported by a range of companies across the sector, we think it has become increasingly likely that the end-H119 (December 2018) valuations will have softened, at least for the TCS retail and leisure assets. For the wider portfolio, it is less easy to call, although increased Brexit and economic uncertainty presents an unhelpful backdrop. Exhibit 2 shows a summary of the last published Investment Property Forum consensus forecasts for autumn 2018. While continuing to predict positive all-property total returns through 2020, this is driven by income returns, with weaker capital values in all sectors but industrial properties (not an area in which TCS is active). The consensus was particularly negative on both rental value growth and capital value growth for the retail subsectors. For the three months ended December 2018, MSCI IPD reported all-property rental growth of negative 0.1% and capital growth of negative 0.2%. The weakness was driven by retail, negative 1.5% and 3.3% respectively.
Exhibit 2: Summary of Investment Property Forum UK consensus forecasts, autumn 2018
Rental value growth (%) |
Capital value growth (%) |
Total return (%) |
||||||||||
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2018/22 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2018/22 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2018/22 |
|
Office |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
0.3% |
0.8% |
1.8% |
-2.3% |
-1.8% |
-0.5% |
6.0% |
1.9% |
2.5% |
3.8% |
Industrial |
4.1% |
2.6% |
2.2% |
2.6% |
10.2% |
2.7% |
0.6% |
2.8% |
15.2% |
7.4% |
5.2% |
7.5% |
Standard retail |
-0.6% |
-0.8% |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
-2.0% |
-3.3% |
-1.9% |
-1.5% |
2.1% |
0.9% |
2.4% |
2.9% |
Shopping centre |
-1.3% |
-1.5% |
-0.9% |
-0.8% |
-6.6% |
-5.4% |
-3.2% |
-3.6% |
-2.2% |
-0.6% |
1.6% |
1.3% |
Retail warehouse |
-1.1% |
-1.1% |
-0.4% |
-0.4% |
-3.7% |
-3.9% |
-1.9% |
-2.0% |
1.8% |
1.6% |
3.4% |
3.6% |
All property |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
1.5% |
-1.7% |
-1.2% |
-0.3% |
6.2% |
3.0% |
3.5% |
4.5% |
Source: IPF
Clearly, it is difficult to read across these observations directly to the TCS asset base, and the position will become clearer with the interim results. However, by way of indication of the potential impact of softening values, if we were to apply the 2018 consensus capital value growth forecasts to the core TCS portfolio (excluding development assets and car parks) of £331m at 30 June 2018, the negative impact would be £8.3m, reducing our end-FY19 NAV per share estimate of 392p by c 19p.
Exhibit 3: Illustrative valuation sensitivity
Sector |
30 June 2018 valuation (£m) |
Valuation movement (%) |
Valuation movement (£m) |
Retail & Leisure |
67.6 |
-2% |
(1.4) |
Merrion Centre (exc office) |
97.7 |
-7% |
(6.4) |
Offices |
70.1 |
2% |
1.3 |
Hotel |
27.2 |
0% |
0.0 |
Out of town retail |
52.1 |
-4% |
(2.1) |
Distribution |
5.8 |
5% |
0.3 |
Residential |
10.9 |
0% |
0.0 |
Total investment properties |
331.4 |
3% |
(8.3) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation update
The performance of the broad UK property sector has continued to track the overall market closely. Narrowing this down a little, Exhibit 4 compares the TCS valuation and share price performance with a group of companies focused on regional property investment and/or the retail sector. Two trends that stand out are:
■
The continuing signs of investor preference for companies targeting recurring income (eg Picton and Custodian, both REITs), historically a less volatile component of total property return, compared with the sharp swings in property valuations observed across the cycle.
■
The weakness of investor sentiment in respect of the retail sector, driving retail-focused stocks such as Capital & Regional, Hammerson, Intu and NewRiver to significant P/NAV discounts and very high yields, metrics that indicate a lack of confidence in current asset values and income/dividend sustainability.
The TCS share price performance significantly reflects the weaker trend of the purer retail plays but less acutely, particularly over the past three months. That still leaves the valuation (0.59x P/NAV and historical dividend yield of 5.2%) at a modest level relative to peers facing similar market-level uncertainties, with the share price performance not obviously reflecting some of the specific characteristics of TCS. We would highlight:
■
The consistent track record of dividend payments, which at least in part we attribute to the family-controlled nature of TCS.
■
The significant shift in portfolio positioning that should represent a material de-risking of future income.
■
The significant reduction in LTV over the past year and through July, combined with increased financial flexibility to fund selected development projects.
■
The scale of the opportunity contained in the group’s already owned development pipeline which, subject to funding, has the potential to substantially lift the earnings and net asset position from that modelled. As the company considers how quickly to proceed with developments and how best to fund them, continued capital recycling and JVs will doubtless have a role to play, while additional equity is also an option. The latter may require family shareholders to reassess their position, but could benefit all shareholders if it brings a welcome increase in liquidity to the shares.
Exhibit 4: Peer comparison table
Price |
Market cap |
P/NAV* |
Yield** |
Share price performance |
||||
One month |
Three months |
12 months |
From 12-month high |
|||||
Capital & Regional |
27 |
196 |
0.42 |
13.8 |
-10% |
-35% |
-52% |
-53% |
Circle Property |
193 |
54 |
0.69 |
2.9 |
0% |
-3% |
17% |
-25% |
Custodian REIT |
113 |
446 |
1.05 |
5.8 |
-3% |
-6% |
-4% |
-8% |
Hammerson |
353 |
2705 |
0.45 |
7.3 |
5% |
-17% |
-29% |
-39% |
Helical |
330 |
394 |
0.70 |
2.9 |
4% |
7% |
-6% |
-17% |
Intu |
107 |
1447 |
0.31 |
13.1 |
-8% |
-46% |
-54% |
-54% |
McKay Securities |
258 |
242 |
0.79 |
3.9 |
8% |
-8% |
8% |
-11% |
Mucklow |
501 |
317 |
0.90 |
4.5 |
1% |
-6% |
-2% |
-13% |
NewRiver REIT |
207 |
629 |
0.73 |
10.3 |
-1% |
-20% |
-35% |
-35% |
Palace Capital |
303 |
139 |
0.72 |
6.3 |
-2% |
-3% |
-9% |
-17% |
Picton |
84 |
455 |
0.92 |
4.1 |
-1% |
-2% |
-3% |
-10% |
Real Est Inv |
52 |
96 |
0.73 |
6.8 |
0% |
-5% |
-6% |
-17% |
Regional REIT |
98 |
365 |
0.86 |
8.1 |
7% |
-3% |
-4% |
-4% |
St Modwen |
413 |
919 |
0.87 |
1.8 |
5% |
12% |
-1% |
-4% |
Schroder REIT |
54 |
277 |
0.78 |
4.7 |
-4% |
-11% |
-17% |
-21% |
Average |
0.73 |
6.4 |
0% |
-10% |
-13% |
-22% |
||
Town Centre Securities |
228 |
121 |
0.59 |
5.2 |
10% |
-11% |
-22% |
-23% |
UK property index |
1,643 |
5.3 |
5% |
-3% |
-9% |
-13% |
||
FTSE All-Share Index |
3,759 |
4.7 |
3% |
-1% |
-10% |
-13% |
||
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Last reported EPRA NAV per share. **Trailing 12-month DPS declared. Prices as at 24 January 2019.
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
Year ending 30 June (£000's) |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Gross revenue |
22,714 |
26,265 |
27,540 |
30,178 |
31,687 |
32,388 |
33,056 |
Total property expenses |
(5,248) |
(7,661) |
(8,148) |
(10,896) |
(11,233) |
(11,477) |
(11,846) |
Net revenue |
17,466 |
18,604 |
19,392 |
19,282 |
20,454 |
20,911 |
21,210 |
Administrative expenses |
(5,321) |
(5,493) |
(6,295) |
(6,574) |
(6,865) |
(7,022) |
(7,183) |
Other income |
1,468 |
599 |
707 |
888 |
400 |
400 |
400 |
Valuation movement on investment properties |
14,791 |
3,018 |
(2,085) |
5,932 |
1,875 |
2,901 |
2,970 |
Reversal of impairment of car parking assets |
0 |
500 |
1,000 |
1,300 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Profit on disposal of investment property |
236 |
1,140 |
303 |
1,677 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Share of post-tax profits from joint venture |
2,621 |
1,400 |
1,342 |
3,757 |
3,000 |
1,050 |
7,475 |
Operating profit |
31,261 |
19,768 |
14,364 |
26,262 |
18,864 |
18,240 |
24,872 |
Net finance costs |
(7,258) |
(7,847) |
(7,639) |
(7,887) |
(8,150) |
(8,180) |
(8,385) |
PBT |
24,003 |
11,921 |
6,725 |
18,375 |
10,714 |
10,060 |
16,487 |
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Net profit |
24,003 |
11,921 |
6,725 |
18,375 |
10,714 |
10,060 |
16,487 |
Adjustments to EPRA: |
|||||||
Valuation movement on investment properties |
(14,791) |
(3,018) |
2,085 |
(5,932) |
(1,875) |
(2,901) |
(2,970) |
Reversal of impairment of car parking assets |
(5,013) |
(500) |
(1,000) |
(1,300) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Valuation movement on properties held in joint ventures |
0 |
(668) |
(471) |
(2,561) |
(2,000) |
0 |
(5,900) |
Profit on disposal of investment/development properties |
(236) |
(1,140) |
(303) |
(1,677) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(Profit)/Loss on disposal of investment properties held in joint ventures |
2,488 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Refi costs |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||||
EPRA earnings |
6,451 |
6,595 |
7,036 |
6,905 |
6,839 |
7,159 |
7,617 |
Average number of shares (m) |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
Basic & fully diluted IFRS EPS (p) |
45.2 |
22.4 |
12.7 |
34.6 |
20.2 |
18.9 |
31.0 |
Basic & fully diluted EPRA EPS |
12.1 |
12.4 |
13.2 |
13.0 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
14.3 |
DPS declared (p) |
10.44 |
11.00 |
11.50 |
11.75 |
11.75 |
12.10 |
12.45 |
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Investment properties |
336,982 |
346,388 |
349,266 |
359,734 |
368,671 |
377,571 |
392,541 |
Investment in joint ventures |
19,344 |
25,093 |
27,852 |
39,742 |
18,842 |
28,842 |
37,342 |
Goodwill |
4,024 |
4,024 |
4,024 |
4,024 |
4,024 |
4,024 |
4,024 |
Other non-current assets |
1,214 |
2,151 |
3,922 |
3,669 |
3,669 |
3,669 |
3,669 |
Total non-current assets |
361,564 |
377,656 |
385,064 |
407,169 |
395,206 |
414,106 |
437,576 |
Investments (listed equities) |
1,962 |
2,070 |
2,394 |
3,530 |
3,530 |
3,530 |
3,530 |
Non-current assets held for sale |
3,450 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Trade & other receivables |
6,871 |
7,388 |
3,311 |
6,288 |
3,525 |
3,625 |
3,640 |
Cash & equivalents |
1,515 |
0 |
3,124 |
5,473 |
17,206 |
7,329 |
3,902 |
Total current assets |
13,798 |
9,458 |
8,829 |
15,291 |
24,260 |
14,484 |
11,073 |
Total assets |
375,362 |
387,114 |
393,893 |
422,460 |
419,466 |
428,590 |
448,649 |
Trade & other payables |
(11,857) |
(11,496) |
(10,846) |
(20,278) |
(12,817) |
(13,180) |
(13,238) |
Financial liabilities |
(38,668) |
(887) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total current liabilities |
(50,525) |
(12,383) |
(10,846) |
(20,278) |
(12,817) |
(13,180) |
(13,238) |
Non-current financial liabilities |
(141,959) |
(184,874) |
(191,969) |
(198,057) |
(198,057) |
(203,057) |
(213,057) |
Total liabilities |
(192,484) |
(197,257) |
(202,815) |
(218,335) |
(210,874) |
(216,237) |
(226,295) |
Net assets |
182,878 |
189,857 |
191,078 |
204,125 |
208,592 |
212,353 |
222,354 |
Period end shares in issue (m) |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
53.2 |
NAV per share (p) |
344 |
357 |
359 |
384 |
392 |
399 |
418 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Net cash flow from operating activity |
2,191 |
5,656 |
10,108 |
6,348 |
8,318 |
7,273 |
6,984 |
Investment in investment properties |
(37,045) |
(17,014) |
(23,246) |
(2,859) |
(29,415) |
(6,000) |
(12,000) |
Proceeds for disposal of investment property |
26,821 |
16,050 |
21,574 |
7,534 |
16,076 |
0 |
0 |
Purchase of fixtures, equipment and motor vehicles |
(532) |
(1,496) |
(586) |
(340) |
(900) |
(900) |
(900) |
Proceeds from sale of fixed assets |
0 |
54 |
61 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Investments and loans to JV |
0 |
(4,916) |
(4,250) |
(8,809) |
(3,500) |
(10,000) |
(2,600) |
Distributions received from joint ventures |
0 |
567 |
1,031 |
676 |
27,400 |
1,050 |
1,575 |
Proceeds from sale of joint ventures |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Payment for the acquisition of non-listed investments |
0 |
0 |
(1,950) |
(175) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cash flow from investing activity |
(10,756) |
(6,755) |
(7,366) |
(3,973) |
9,661 |
(15,850) |
(13,925) |
Proceeds from borrowing |
17,475 |
4,247 |
7,197 |
6,088 |
0 |
5,000 |
10,000 |
Dividends paid |
(5,550) |
(5,550) |
(5,928) |
(6,114) |
(6,247) |
(6,300) |
(6,486) |
Cash flow from financing activity |
11,925 |
(1,303) |
1,269 |
(26) |
(6,247) |
(1,300) |
3,514 |
Change in cash |
3,360 |
(2,402) |
4,011 |
2,349 |
11,733 |
(9,877) |
(3,427) |
Opening cash |
(1,845) |
1,515 |
(887) |
3,124 |
5,473 |
17,206 |
7,329 |
Closing cash |
1,515 |
(887) |
3,124 |
5,473 |
17,206 |
7,329 |
3,902 |
Bank overdraft |
0 |
887 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cash as per balance sheet |
1,515 |
0 |
3,124 |
5,473 |
17,206 |
7,329 |
3,902 |
Financial liabilities |
(176,147) |
(181,281) |
(191,969) |
(198,057) |
(198,057) |
(203,057) |
(213,057) |
Net debt |
(174,632) |
(181,281) |
(188,845) |
(192,584) |
(180,851) |
(195,728) |
(209,155) |
Net LTV |
49.7% |
49.5% |
49.3% |
47.5% |
45.9% |
47.4% |
48.0% |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
Nanoco’s contract extension for work with its US customer fully underpins our FY19 estimates and gives the business a c £3m+ head start entering FY20. Our forecasts are unchanged, but progress with this major customer has shone a bright light on Nanoco’s IP and execution credentials. Discussions are now ongoing with a number of parties, which could drive upside to our near-term estimates.