US sales up 53% compared to last year

Photocure 13 November 2019 Update
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Photocure

US sales up 53% compared to last year

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

13 November 2019

Price

NOK57.70

Market cap

NOK1,258m

NOK9.14/US$

Net cash (NOKm) at 30 September 2019

96

Shares in issue

21.8m

Free float

75.2%

Code

PHO

Primary exchange

Oslo

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

7.7

4.3

52.2

Rel (local)

4.1

(4.0)

55.0

52-week high/low

NOK60.90

NOK33.40

Business description

Photocure specialises in photodynamic therapy. Its bladder cancer imaging product is sold as Hexvix in Europe and Cysview in the US. It handles the marketing in Nordic countries and the US, while Ipsen is its marketing partner in the EU. Cevira was licensed to Asieris, with an initial focus of development on China.

Next events

Updates on US growth

2019

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Nathaniel Calloway

+1 646 653 7036

Photocure is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Photocure announced Q319 results, with 18% revenue growth for the Hexvix/Cysview franchise (vs Q318) to NOK51.1m. US sales of NOK25.2m were up 53% as the region continues to be the growth driver for the company while both Nordic and partner revenue fell (by 7% and 2% respectively) compared to the same period a year ago. Sales in the US continue to be driven mainly by improved reimbursement, added sales resources and a higher installed base of blue light cystoscopes. There are now 211 installed cystoscopes in the US, indicating 12% growth in the installed base over the quarter and up 34% since the beginning of 2019.

Year end

Revenue (NOKm)

PBT*
(NOKm)

EPS*
(NOK)

DPS
(NOK)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

150.9

(41.6)

(1.61)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/18

181.5

(22.5)

(1.04)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/19e

255.8

26.2

0.63

0.0

91.6

N/A

12/20e

289.5

58.4

1.93

0.0

29.9

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

US sales continue to be strong

Q319 sales in the US increased 53% to NOK25.2m and are now up 57% year-to-date. This was helped by volume growth, a strong US dollar and increased prices. In US dollar terms, sales were up 42% compared to Q318 and unit sales increased 34% during the quarter. The total installed base of blue light cystoscopes (both rigid and flexible) increased to 211, up 34% from the 157 installed at the beginning of 2019.

US reimbursement continues to improve

Earlier in November, the company announced that the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released its final rule, which has increased reimbursement for blue light cystoscopy (BLC) procedures with Hexvix/Cysview by $92 when used in hospital outpatient departments. The reimbursement differential with standard white light procedures is now $1,247 in this setting. The new reimbursement level will take effect 1 January 2020.

Nordic sales continue to struggle

Nordic revenues were NOK9.9m, down 7% in Q319 compared to Q318, with unit sales down 12%. Year-to-date Nordic revenues are still up 1% while unit sales are down 3%. Partner revenue fell 2% in the third quarter due to IFRS 15 adjustments, with unit sales up 4% (down less than 1% sequentially), because of strength in Germany and France. Year-to-date partner revenue is up 4%.

Valuation: NOK1,546m or NOK71 per share

We have increased our valuation to NOK1,546m or NOK71 per basic share, from NOK1,506m or NOK69 per basic share. The increase was mainly due to rolling forward our NPVs as well as a higher cash balance. We forecast that Photocure, with NOK96m in cash, is fully funded to execute its current business plans.

Q3 results

Photocure reported total revenue of NOK60.8m for Q319, representing 37% growth over Q318. Included in the total revenues is $1m (NOK8.7m) from Asieris, a China-based specialty pharmaceutical company, which recently licensed Cevira for HPV-related (cervical) diseases. An additional $2m was received in October, with the remaining $2m of the signing fee expected by the end of the year. Hexvix/Cysview sales were up 18%, growing to NOK51.1m. Sales in the US continued to be strong, up 53% compared to Q318 (up 42% in US dollar terms) and now representing over 49% of total Hexvix/Cysview revenues (up from 38% of revenues in Q318). End-user US unit sales were also strong, growing 34% for the quarter compared to last year, driven in part by an increase in the number of permanent blue light cystoscopes (BLC) installed. There are currently 211 installed, up 12% from the 188 at the end of last quarter and up 34% from the 157 at the beginning of the year (see Exhibit 1). 189 of the total are rigid cystoscopes while 22 are flexible cystoscopes for use in the surveillance setting. This growth in the installed base is a good indicator of growth in upcoming periods.

Exhibit 1: Permanent blue light cystoscopes installed in the US

Source: Photocure

Another driver of US growth has been improved reimbursement. Prior to 2018, CMS did not separately reimburse centres for use of the BLC with Hexvix/Cysview procedures, but instead bundled it with the total reimbursement for TURBT (transurethral resection of the bladder tumour) procedures so any additional cost related to the product was absorbed by the centre. This has had a direct impact on the availability of BLC with Hexvix/Cysview in the US. Starting in 2018, there was a separate code for BLC with Hexvix/Cysview, which improved reimbursement in 2019 and which will further improve in 2020. Earlier in November of this year, the company announced that CMS released its final rule, which will increase reimbursement by $92 in the hospital outpatient departments. The reimbursement differential with standard white light procedures is now $1,247 in this setting and will take effect on 1 January 2020.

Revenues in the Nordic region were NOK9.9m, down 7% in Q319 compared to Q318 with unit sales down 12%. Year-to-date Nordic revenues are still up 1% while unit sales are down 3%. The company has indicated that it has launched a number of initiatives to improve sales performance in this area, which now accounts for only 19% of sales. Partner revenue fell 2% in the third quarter due to IFRS 15 adjustments, with unit sales up 4% (down less than 1% sequentially), because of strength in Germany and France. Year-to-date partner revenue is up 4%. As a reminder, Photocure is using partners such as Ipsen in the EU outside of the Nordics, BioSyent in Canada and Juno in Australia/New Zealand to market in such regions.

SG&A for Q3 was up 15% to NOK47.3m compared with last year, but down 5% sequentially. As a reminder, the company is increasing the number of customer-facing roles by 50% in the US over the course of this year, which will allow it to cover 75% of the metropolitan areas in the US and more than 700 accounts. R&D expenses (excluding depreciation & amortization) remained under control at NOK0.6m, down 76% compared to Q318, as it now consists of maintenance and expansion of Photocure’s intellectual property and some regulatory work rather than discrete development programs (Asieris is responsible for funding the Cevira program). EBITDA for the company was NOK8.3m, a major improvement over the NOK3.1m loss seen in the same quarter a year ago. The net loss for the company was NOK0.6m due to a tax expense of NOK5.9m for the quarter, which is a non-cash charge following changes in a deferred tax asset that was related to the Asieris signing fee for Cevira.

Valuation

We have increased our valuation to NOK1,546m or NOK71 per basic share, from NOK1,506m or NOK69 per basic share. The increase was mainly due to rolling forward our NPVs as well as a higher cash balance.

Exhibit 2: Photocure valuation model

Product

Main indication

Status

Probability of commercialisation

Launch year

Peak sales (NOKm)

Peak year

Economics

rNPV (NOKm)

Hexvix/Cysview

Bladder cancer detection

Market

100%

Launched

376

2024

Fully owned – US and Nordics; partner with Ipsen in EU (35% royalty)

1,164

Cevira

HPV-related diseases

Phase III

40% (China)/ 20% (US/EU)

2024 (China)

3,044

2034

10–20% royalty from Asieris

286

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1,450

Cash and cash equivalents (Q319)

96

Total firm value

1,546

Total basic shares (m)

21.8

Value per basic share (NOK)

71

Options (Q319, m)

0.1

Total number of shares (m)

21.9

Diluted value per share (NOK)

71

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

We have decreased our revenue estimate for 2019 from NOK260.9m to NOK255.8m due to a slightly lower run rate of Hexvix/Cysview sales, especially outside the US. We have also decreased our SG&A estimates by NOK6.3m for 2019 and NOK6.3m for 2020 due to the lower run rate of spending. The company ended Q319 with NOK96m in cash, and we do not expect it to require further financing as we expect the company to be profitable on an annual basis from this point forward.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

NOK000s

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

150,911

181,510

255,775

289,518

Cost of Sales

(12,011)

(17,147)

(19,744)

(23,348)

Gross Profit

138,900

164,362

236,031

266,169

Sales, General and Administrative Expenses

(149,098)

(165,530)

(192,078)

(199,761)

Research and Development Expense

(22,896)

(9,325)

(3,252)

(3,382)

EBITDA

 

 

(33,094)

(10,492)

40,700

63,025

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(45,202)

(23,703)

24,281

56,458

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

(14,199)

0

0

Operating Profit

(45,202)

(37,902)

24,281

56,458

Net Interest

3,622

1,187

1,880

1,955

Other

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(41,580)

(22,516)

26,161

58,413

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(41,580)

(36,715)

26,161

58,413

Tax

6,883

6

(12,396)

(15,772)

Deferred tax

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(34,697)

(22,510)

13,765

42,642

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(34,697)

(36,709)

13,765

42,642

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

21.6

21.6

21.8

22.0

EPS - normalised (ore)

 

 

(161)

(104)

63

193

EPS - FRS 3 (ore)

 

 

(161)

(170)

63

194

Dividend per share (ore)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

87,486

77,767

69,660

62,943

Intangible Assets

33,315

22,502

10,278

2,550

Tangible Assets

1,268

2,141

2,350

3,359

Other

52,903

53,124

57,033

57,033

Current Assets

 

 

175,613

153,429

171,419

221,858

Stocks

19,552

18,582

18,059

33,423

Debtors

14,573

20,371

20,071

28,952

Cash

129,368

106,833

123,855

150,049

Other

12,119

7,643

9,434

9,434

Current Liabilities

 

 

(40,267)

(52,453)

(39,464)

(39,464)

Creditors

(40,267)

(52,453)

(39,464)

(39,464)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(4,752)

(2,401)

(10,790)

(11,869)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(4,752)

(2,401)

(10,790)

(11,869)

Net Assets

 

 

218,079

176,342

190,826

233,467

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(23,593)

(24,124)

18,683

26,044

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

Capex

(18,588)

(2,188)

(1,180)

(1,224)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

Financing

0

6,339

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

2,310

(2,562)

(480)

1,374

Net Cash Flow

(39,871)

(22,536)

17,023

26,194

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(169,239)

(129,368)

(106,833)

(123,855)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

0

0

0

0

Other

0

1

(1)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(129,368)

(106,833)

(123,855)

(150,049)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Photocure and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Photocure. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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London, WC1V 7EE

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New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

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Level 4, Office 1205

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Photocure and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Photocure. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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