Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR3.07
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
EUR22m
Research: Consumer
bet-at-home’s (BAH) Q121 results are strong in the context of management guidance for FY21. Trading in the early part of FY21 is likely to be as bad as it gets for BAH. The initial (negative) effects of regulatory changes in Germany will be followed by a more favourable sporting calendar and management’s belief that increased legal certainty from Q321 will help the company to better plan and develop its business. Management is optimistic that regulated companies should be able to take share from the black market, which it believes may be more than 30% of the total market. We upgrade our FY21 EBITDA forecast by 11%, taking it above management’s reiterated guidance. Our DCF-based valuation increases to €51 per share.
bet-at-home |
Trading well against expectations |
Q121 results |
Travel & leisure |
6 May 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
bet-at-home is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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bet-at-home’s (BAH) Q121 results are strong in the context of management guidance for FY21. Trading in the early part of FY21 is likely to be as bad as it gets for BAH. The initial (negative) effects of regulatory changes in Germany will be followed by a more favourable sporting calendar and management’s belief that increased legal certainty from Q321 will help the company to better plan and develop its business. Management is optimistic that regulated companies should be able to take share from the black market, which it believes may be more than 30% of the total market. We upgrade our FY21 EBITDA forecast by 11%, taking it above management’s reiterated guidance. Our DCF-based valuation increases to €51 per share.
Year end |
Revenue (GGR**) (€m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/19 |
143.3 |
35.2 |
4.26 |
2.00 |
10.6 |
4.4 |
12/20 |
126.9 |
30.9 |
3.32 |
2.50 |
13.6 |
5.5 |
12/21e |
118.0 |
23.5 |
2.48 |
1.70 |
18.3 |
3.8 |
12/22e |
129.8 |
28.8 |
3.10 |
2.20 |
14.6 |
4.9 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **GGR is gross gaming revenue.
Q121: Better than expected
The y-o-y revenue (GGR) decline of 5.5% to €30.5m in Q121 reflects the early stages of regulatory changes in Germany (effective October 2020), offset by an easing comparative as the quarter progressed due to the COVID outbreak at the end of Q120. Sports GGR (56% of group) increased by 25.6% y-o-y as the sporting calendar normalised, but Gaming GGR declined by 28.5%, mainly due to the regulatory changes. We believe that Austria, BAH’s second most important market, continues to trade very well. The Q121 EBITDA margin of 22.8%, a y-o-y decline of 520bp, was ahead of our prior FY21 estimate of 18.9%. The margin reflects savings in other operating costs, offset by higher marketing as the business normalises and ahead of the customary Q2 increase before major sports events.
FY21: EBITDA upgraded by 11%
For FY21, management reiterated guidance for revenue (€106–118m, a y-o-y decline of 7–16%) and EBITDA (€18–22m, decline of 29–42%). Q121 revenue of €30.5m represents 26–29% of the guidance range for FY21. As the first quarter is typically not the strongest in the year and the UEFA European Championship should help Sports revenue, we believe the guidance looks conservative. We increase our forecasts for FY21 and FY22. We have upgraded FY21 revenue by 5% to €118m and EBITDA by 11% to €23.5m.
Valuation: DCF-based valuation increased to €51
On our new forecasts, BAH’s P/E is 18.3x for FY21e and 14.6x for FY22e, which compares with the averages for peers of 22.5x and 18.7x respectively. The 3.8% dividend yield for FY21 is higher than the peer group average of 2.8%. Our DCF-based valuation increases to €51/share from €49/share in our recent outlook note.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€m |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|||||
Revenue |
|
|
143.3 |
126.9 |
118.0 |
129.8 |
Cost of Sales |
(25.8) |
(26.3) |
(23.2) |
(25.4) |
||
Net Gaming Revenue |
117.5 |
100.6 |
94.8 |
104.4 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
35.2 |
30.9 |
23.5 |
28.8 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
33.2 |
28.9 |
21.5 |
26.8 |
|
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
33.2 |
28.9 |
21.5 |
26.8 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
33.1 |
28.8 |
21.4 |
26.7 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
33.1 |
28.8 |
21.4 |
26.7 |
Reported tax |
(15.1) |
(5.5) |
(4.0) |
(4.9) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
29.9 |
23.3 |
17.4 |
21.7 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
18.0 |
23.3 |
17.4 |
21.7 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
29.9 |
23.3 |
17.4 |
21.7 |
||
Net income (reported) |
18.0 |
23.3 |
17.4 |
21.7 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
425.53 |
331.92 |
248.01 |
309.60 |
EPS - diluted normalised (€) |
|
|
4.26 |
3.32 |
2.48 |
3.10 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
2.56 |
3.32 |
2.48 |
3.10 |
Dividend per share (€) |
2.00 |
2.50 |
1.70 |
2.20 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
(0.0) |
(11.4) |
(7.0) |
10.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
82.0 |
79.2 |
80.3 |
80.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
24.5 |
24.4 |
19.9 |
22.2 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
23.2 |
22.8 |
18.2 |
20.6 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
8.2 |
7.4 |
6.6 |
5.8 |
Intangible Assets |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
||
Tangible Assets |
5.9 |
5.1 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
87.0 |
88.2 |
94.3 |
102.2 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
30.4 |
29.5 |
29.3 |
29.7 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
48.0 |
50.9 |
57.2 |
64.7 |
||
Customer cash |
6.7 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
||
Other |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(50.9) |
(42.5) |
(42.2) |
(43.0) |
Creditors |
(4.2) |
(4.0) |
(4.1) |
(4.3) |
||
Short term provisions/ tax liabilities |
(33.7) |
(28.7) |
(28.7) |
(28.7) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(13.1) |
(9.7) |
(9.4) |
(10.0) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
41.6 |
50.5 |
56.0 |
62.2 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
35.0 |
30.8 |
23.2 |
28.5 |
||
Working capital |
6.0 |
(1.1) |
0.0 |
0.4 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(1.0) |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
(10.2) |
(11.4) |
(4.0) |
(4.9) |
||
Operating cash flow |
|
|
29.9 |
18.1 |
19.2 |
23.9 |
Capex |
(2.5) |
(1.2) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(45.6) |
(14.0) |
(11.9) |
(15.4) |
||
Other |
(0.8) |
(0.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(19.0) |
2.1 |
6.3 |
7.5 |
||
Opening (cash) |
|
|
(68.8) |
(49.8) |
(51.8) |
(58.1) |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing (cash) |
|
|
(49.8) |
(51.8) |
(58.1) |
(65.6) |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(48.0) |
(50.9) |
(57.2) |
(64.7) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Investment Companies
Hansa Investment Company (HAN/HANA) fund manager Alec Letchfield argues that investors should not be overly distracted by the fund’s exposure to Brazil through a c 11% position in maritime services company Wilson Sons (WSON). While the holding could prove beneficial as global economic growth and trade continue to recover, the remaining c 90% of the portfolio is much more significant, and Hansa IC’s persistent 30%+ discount to NAV is arguably unwarranted given its healthy mix (via funds and direct equities) of growth, value and defensive/uncorrelated strategies. Recent performance has shown an improving trend versus peers, and a 13.3% local currency increase in WSON’s share price since the start of 2020 (outperforming the main Bovespa Index by 11.5pp) has not been reflected in Hansa IC’s discount to NAV, which moved by just 0.4pp from 33.9% to 34.3% (A shares) from 1 January 2020 to 4 May 2021.