Company profile - Brighter Actiste feature image - 16092019 - JPG

Progress in multiple regions

Brighter 8 March 2021 Update
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Brighter

Progress in multiple regions

Financial update

Healthcare equipment
& services

8 March 2021

Price

SEK1.21

Market cap

SEK420m

US$0.12/SEK

Net cash (SEKm) at 31 December 2020 + offering

107.9

Shares in issue

347.3m

Free float

99.5%

Code

BRIG

Primary exchange

Nasdaq First North

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(17.2)

(56.4)

(65.3)

Rel (local)

(18.5)

(59.8)

(72.5)

52-week high/low

SEK4.89

SEK1.21

Business description

Brighter is a Swedish healthtech company addressing common welfare challenges of modern society through a group of innovation companies. Its lead solution, Actiste, currently being commercialised, is aimed at helping people with diabetes adhere to care guidelines and achieve treatment goals by simplifying the everyday treatment and introducing a new layer of data-driven support.

Next events

Commercial launch of Actiste

2021

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Nathaniel Calloway

+1 646 653 7036

Brighter is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Brighter has been making progress in multiple regions for Actiste, which now has market approval in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Thailand, as well as a five-year distribution agreement in Qatar and five-year agreements in both Nigeria and Ghana. Once registrations are in place in Nigeria and Ghana, Brighter expects to receive €2.3m (SEK23.4m) and €1.2m (SEK12.2m), respectively, in initial orders in those countries. The approval processes in Nigeria and Ghana are expected to begin in March 2021 and complete by the end of the year.

Year end

Revenue (SEKm)

PBT*
(SEKm)

EPS*
(SEK)

DPS
(SEK)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

3.3

(88.7)

(1.06)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/20

14.1

(240.6)

(1.18)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/21e

41.0

(171.6)

(0.49)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/22e

218.0

(32.4)

(0.09)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Saudi Arabia and UAE approvals, Qatari distribution

Brighter announced the approval for Actiste in the UAE in Q420 and the remaining Saudi Arabia approval for consumables in January. Additionally, the company has signed a five-year distribution agreement for Qatar with Al Danah Medical Company, a distributor of health products since 1990.

Agreements in Nigeria and Ghana signed

Upon approval (expected by YE21), Brighter will receive an initial order of €2.3m (SEK23.4m) for Nigeria, targeting €6.3m (SEK64.2m) in the next 12 months, with a year five target of €151m (SEK1.5bn) in orders. In Ghana, Brighter will receive an initial order of €1.2m (SEK12.2m) with order volume of €3.1m (SEK31.6m) in the following 12 months and year five orders targeted at €31m (SEK316m).

Africa provides a significant opportunity

While Africa has not historically been a focus for healthcare companies, it is a significant opportunity for a company like Brighter. In Nigeria, for example, there are approximately 92 million adults, including 2.7 million with diabetes. Total diabetes health expenditure in the country is estimated at US$1.3bn per year. For sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, there are 501 million adults, 19.4 million of whom have diabetes; annual expenditure on diabetes is approximately US$9.5bn.

Valuation: SEK1,273m or SEK3.67per basic share

We have adjusted our valuation from SEK1,225m or SEK5.64 per share to SEK1,273m or SEK3.67 per share. The total valuation increased due to higher net cash following the SEK142m Q121 equity offering as well as rolling forward our NPVs. The per share value fell mainly due to a higher number of shares outstanding. We project the company will need to raise an additional SEK100m this year (previously SEK175m) and an additional SEK65m next year. We currently forecast profitability in 2023 (previously 2022).

Multiple steps forward

Brighter has been making progress in multiple regions for Actiste, which now has market approval in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Thailand, and it has signed a five-year distribution agreement in Qatar, which like other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has a high prevalence of diabetes within its adult population. The agreement in Qatar is with Al Danah Medical Company, which was established in 1990 and is a distributor of pharmaceuticals, medical devices and OTC products among other items. Qatar has a primarily state-run healthcare system so Al Danah will likely attempt to win public tenders, the timing for which is uncertain.

Exhibit 1: Adults aged 20–79 with diabetes in 2019 in target markets

Country

Age-adjusted prevalence
(%)

Prevalence of diabetes in adults aged 20–79 (‘000s)

GCC

UAE

16.3

1,223.4

Saudi Arabia

15.8

4,275.2

Kuwait

12.2

681.1

Oman

10.1

291.8

Qatar

15.6

347.0

Bahrain

15.6

202.7

South-East Asia

Indonesia

6.3

10,681.4

Thailand

7.0

4,284.9

Singapore

5.5

640.4

Malaysia

16.7

3,652.6

Africa

Nigeria

3.1

2,743.8

Ghana

2.5

281.1

Europe

Sweden

4.8

521.2

Source: IDF Diabetes Atlas, Ninth Edition

The company has also signed a five-year distribution agreement for Actiste with Wssonlines Nigeria. The process for Actiste approval in Nigeria is expected to start in March 2021 and will take approximately nine months for approval. Upon approval, Brighter will receive an initial order of €2.3m (SEK23.4m) for Nigeria, corresponding to 3,000 24-month subscriptions. About a quarter of this initial order will be paid upfront with the rest spread out over the term of the subscriptions. Over the first 12 months following approval, the agreement is targeting €6.3m (SEK64.2m) worth of orders (corresponding to approximately 8,000 24-month subscriptions), with a year five target of €151m (SEK1.5bn) in orders, corresponding to 210,000 subscriptions.

For Ghana, Brighter has signed a similarly structured agreement with Fretac Plus Ventures. TheActiste approval process is expected to start in March 2021 and will take approximately six months for approval. Upon approval, Brighter will receive an initial order of €1.2m (SEK12.2m) for Ghana, corresponding to 1,500 24-month subscriptions. As with the Nigerian distribution deal, about a quarter of this initial order will be paid upfront with the rest spread out over the term of the subscriptions. Over the first 12 months following approval, the agreement is targeting €3.1m (SEK31.6m) worth of orders (corresponding to approximately 4,000 24-month subscriptions), with a year five target of €31m (SEK316m) in orders, corresponding to 44,000 subscriptions.

Additionally, Brighter received marketing approval from the Thai FDA though it is still waiting for the successful conclusion of the cellular transmission approval process in order to activate and use the products. Additional information on the commercial plan for Thailand is expected in the next few months.

With regard to Camanio, the Brighter subsidiary signed a strategic partnership in March with Siemens Smart Infrastructure. It will be seeking to improve the care of seniors by integrating real estate technology such as intelligent lighting with indoor positioning and care alarms.

As announced in February, Christer Trägårdh will continue as acting CEO, leading the company until further notice, as work to find a long-term replacement is underway. We expect the company to continue its current strategy.

Valuation

We have adjusted our valuation from SEK1,225m or SEK5.64 per share, to SEK1,273m or SEK3.67 per share. The total valuation increased due to higher net cash following the SEK142m equity offering (described below) as well as rolling forward our NPVs. This was mitigated in part by more conservative ramp assumptions although peak sales have remained the same. The per share value fell mainly due to a higher number of shares outstanding.

Exhibit 2: Brighter valuation table

Programme

Market

Prob. of success

Launch
year

Upper tier launch pricing ($ per month)

Lower tier launch pricing ($ per month)

Peak revenue ($m)

Valuation (SEKm)

Actiste

Nordic region

30%

2020

131.3

71.6

5.5

19.9

GCC countries

30%

2020

112.5

61.4

45.7

153.9

South East Asia + ROW

30%

2020

93.8

51.1

54.7

220.2

EU

25%

2021

133.9

73.0

243.1

678.3

US

20%

2022

143.1

78.0

193.1

500.9

Unallocated costs

(407.7)

Total

1,165.6

Net cash (at 31 December 2020 + Q121 offering) (SEKm)

107.9

Total firm value (SEKm)

1,273.5

Total shares (m)

347.3

Value per basic share (SEK)

3.67

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

The company reported sales of SEK6.0m in Q420, up from SEK2.4m in the same period a year ago, with the vast majority of sales coming from the Camanio segment (which was up 88% y-o-y). Cash flows from operations were a negative SEK37.6m, a slight improvement from the negative SEK40.1m in Q419. We currently expect much of the Actiste sales growth for the year to be in the latter half of 2021, so we have lowered our FY21 revenue estimates from SEK93.0m to SEK41.0m. We have also increased our operating expense estimate for FY21 by SEK22.5m due to higher consultancy expenditures, which are categorised as other external costs. We are also introducing our 2022 estimates, which feature SEK218.0m (€21m/US$26m) in revenues, driven by Actiste growth across the target geographies.

The company had SEK7.3m in gross cash on hand and SEK41.3m in debt at the end of Q420, but raised an additional SEK142m (gross) in February through the issuance of an additional 118.3m shares. A further SEK79m investment may come from warrants that will be exercisable as of October 2021. We currently project the company will need to raise an additional SEK100m this year (previously SEK175m), though this does not include any funds from the potential warrant exercise. We also project a need to raise an additional SEK65m next year. These financings are modelled as illustrative debt. We currently forecast profitability in 2023 (previously 2022). Note that the company is seeking alternative sources of financing for both Pink Nectarine Health and Camanio to lighten the company’s need for investment in those two units.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

SEK000s

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

Year-end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

3,284

14,073

41,016

217,977

Cost of Sales

(1,246)

(6,863)

(8,203)

(43,595)

Gross Profit

2,039

7,210

32,813

174,382

General and Administrative Expenses

(23,418)

(75,140)

(75,891)

(76,492)

Other Operating Expenses

(52,365)

(90,686)

(91,593)

(92,509)

EBITDA

 

 

(73,744)

(158,616)

(134,672)

5,380

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

(78,857)

(226,990)

(157,235)

(17,183)

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(78,857)

(226,990)

(157,235)

(17,183)

Net Interest

(9,875)

(13,575)

(14,390)

(15,253)

Other

(953)

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(88,732)

(240,565)

(171,624)

(32,436)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(89,685)

(240,565)

(171,624)

(32,436)

Tax

0

0

0

0

Deferred tax

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(88,732)

(240,565)

(171,624)

(32,436)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(89,685)

(240,565)

(171,625)

(32,436)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

84.7

204.3

351.0

354.5

EPS - normalised (SEK)

 

 

(1.06)

(1.18)

(0.49)

(0.09)

EPS - FRS 3 (SEK)

 

 

(1.06)

(1.18)

(0.49)

(0.09)

Dividend per share (öre)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

186,740

226,285

293,097

359,912

Intangible Assets

158,677

179,712

246,174

312,636

Tangible Assets

16,470

34,957

35,307

35,660

Other

11,593

11,616

11,616

11,616

Current Assets

 

 

68,925

116,596

115,882

69,424

Stocks

6,831

12,998

12,998

12,998

Debtors

44,396

82,364

82,364

35,832

Cash

9,340

7,276

6,562

6,636

Other

8,358

13,958

13,958

13,958

Current Liabilities

 

 

(46,308)

(78,346)

(86,111)

(86,440)

Creditors

(35,666)

(45,530)

(53,295)

(53,624)

Short term borrowings

(10,642)

(32,816)

(32,816)

(32,816)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1,581)

(8,548)

(108,548)

(173,548)

Long term borrowings

(1,390)

(8,548)

(108,548)

(173,548)

Other long term liabilities

(191)

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

207,776

255,987

214,319

169,348

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(93,902)

(177,887)

(163,859)

14,424

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

Capex

(40,125)

(78,378)

(78,855)

(79,350)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

Financing

150,532

276,853

142,000

0

Conversion of convertible debt instruments

0

0

0

0

Dividends

(494)

0

0

0

Other

(18,685)

(35,963)

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(2,673)

(15,375)

(100,714)

(64,926)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

42,862

2,692

34,088

134,802

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

0

0

0

0

Other

42,844

(16,021)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

2,692

34,088

134,802

199,728

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Brighter and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Brighter. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Brighter and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Brighter. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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