Hellenic Petroleum

ASE: ELPE

€2637.6m market cap

€8.63 last close

Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 341kbd, and has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

Investment summary

Following a weak H119 due to an unfavourable trading environment for refineries, Hellenic’s profits picked up in Q3. We continue to expect strong growth in FY20 driven by higher refining margins, including the impact of IMO 2020. The strategic update presented at the investor day focused on the growth potential from efficiencies and new investments. We believe the strong cash flow supports both the healthy dividend and capex plan, and investments in the core refining business look particularly attractive.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 7995.0 833.0 502.0 121.3 7.1 6.0
2018A 9769.0 730.0 388.0 95.2 9.1 5.2
2019E 9113.0 645.0 318.0 82.3 10.5 4.5
2020E 9264.0 806.0 486.0 119.2 7.2 3.7
Industry outlook

European refining will likely face continued challenges in the coming years as demand falls and refinery systems elsewhere (Asia/US) hold structural advantages. To offset this, changing regulations should put complex, middle distillate-orientated refineries such as ELPE’s in a strong position.

Last updated on 21/11/2019
Sector
Oil & gas
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (€m) 1391
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 59
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 3.7 (6.6) 23.5
Relative* 1.8 (12.0) (16.2)
52-week high/low €9.6/€6.9
*% relative to local index
Key management
George Grigoriou Investor Relations Officer
Vasilis Molfetas IR department
Vasilis Tsaitas Investor Relations Officer

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