Hellenic Petroleum

ASE: ELPE

€1797.1m market cap

€5.88 last close

Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) operates three refineries in Greece with a total capacity of 344kbd. It has sizeable marketing (domestic and international) and petrochemicals divisions.

Investment summary

Despite continued low benchmark refinery margins during H220 due to the impact of COVID-19 on oil products demand, Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) was able to maintain high production levels and generate substantial positive operating margin thanks to the flexibility of its refining system and increased exports. We anticipate a potentially slower recovery of benchmark margins in H121 than previously assumed due to continued sluggish demand. However, with Greece looking to prioritise tourism with reduced restrictions on travel, we anticipate this could accelerate a recovery in domestic demand, especially for jet and road fuels. ELPE expects the Kozani 204MW photovoltaic project to become operational in Q122, as a part of the company’s goal of an overall 600MW installed capacity by 2025. Our valuation stands at €6.55/share.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2019A 8857.0 570.0 205.0 60.6 9.7 3.7
2020A 5782.0 333.0 5.0 1.8 326.7 4.0
2021E 7319.0 525.0 196.0 48.0 12.3 3.9
2022E 7339.0 634.0 316.0 77.6 7.6 3.2
Industry outlook

European refining will likely face continued challenges in the coming years as demand falls and refinery systems elsewhere (Asia/US) hold structural advantages. To offset this, changing regulations should put complex, middle distillate-orientated refineries such as ELPE’s in a strong position.

Last updated on 05/05/2021
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Sector
Oil & gas
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (€m) 1618
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 77
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (1.5) 9.7 (3.3)
Relative* (5.4) (8.0) (35.2)
52-week high/low €6.5/€4.1
*% relative to local index
Key management
George Grigoriou Investor Relations Officer
Vasilis Molfetas IR department
Vasilis Tsaitas Investor Relations Officer

Content on Hellenic Petroleum

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