Greggs — Medium-term growth ambition quantified

Greggs (LSE: GRG)

Last close As at 27/03/2024

GBP28.60

30.00 (1.06%)

Market capitalisation

GBP2,894m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

Greggs — Medium-term growth ambition quantified

Gregg’s Q321 trading statement (to 2 October) indicated improved revenue momentum despite recent supply chain and staffing disruptions and an increase in FY21 profit expectations, although rising inflationary pressures (ingredients, staff and utilities) are expected from Q421. This suggests a more challenging FY22 from a cost perspective. Management set a new ‘ambitious’ five-year target (to the end of FY26) to double revenue to £2.4bn (CAGR of 14–15%) from an equal combination of accelerated space growth (number and average size of stores) to reach at least 3,000 stores and space productivity from both ongoing (delivery and evening day part) and new (enhanced loyalty and marketing) initiatives. Simply put, the ambition is to extend Greggs’ strength from daytime retail to an all-day multichannel. Our forecasts are under review.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer

Consumer

Greggs

Medium-term growth ambition quantified

Q321 trading update and strategy update

Retail

7 October 2021

Price

2,999p

Market cap

£3,053m

Net cash (£m) at 3 July 2021
(ex IFRS 16 liabilities)

118.3

Shares in issue

101.8m

Free float

100%

Code

GRG

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

With 2,146 shops and eight manufacturing and distribution centres, Greggs is the leading UK ‘food-on-the-go’ retailer. It uses vertical integration to offer differentiated products at competitive prices. The ambition is to grow revenue to £2.4bn by FY26.

Analysts

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Greggs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Gregg’s Q321 trading statement (to 2 October) indicated improved revenue momentum despite recent supply chain and staffing disruptions and an increase in FY21 profit expectations, although rising inflationary pressures (ingredients, staff and utilities) are expected from Q421. This suggests a more challenging FY22 from a cost perspective. Management set a new ‘ambitious’ five-year target (to the end of FY26) to double revenue to £2.4bn (CAGR of 14–15%) from an equal combination of accelerated space growth (number and average size of stores) to reach at least 3,000 stores and space productivity from both ongoing (delivery and evening day part) and new (enhanced loyalty and marketing) initiatives. Simply put, the ambition is to extend Greggs’ strength from daytime retail to an all-day multichannel. Our forecasts are under review.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

PE
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

1,167.9

114.2

89.7

11.9

33.4

0.4

12/20

811.3

(12.9)

(12.1)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/21e

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

12/22e

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Greggs’ two-year like-for-like revenue growth accelerated to c 6% in August and c 3% in September following a weather-affected July, to give total growth of 3.5% for Q321. Management estimates that the ongoing phased recovery in VAT on takeaway hot food and drinks, reduced during COVID-19, boosted the rate of growth by c 2%, and also highlighted the contributions of menu development and delivery sales.

The key drivers to Greggs’ medium-term growth were highlighted at the H121 results but the trading statement and accompanying capital markets day presentation were the first quantification of management’s ambition. In descending order, management expects the contributors to revenue growth will be estate growth (50%), delivery and evening day part (23%), further COVID-19 recovery and wholesale (15%), loyalty and customer relationship management (12%). The revenue growth is not expected to be linear as, say, the relatively untested loyalty and CRM initiatives will take longer to come through than the more visible accelerated space growth (150 net new stores per year versus 100 previously).

The revenue growth will be supported by five-year capital investment of c £890m, with a peak in FY24, which compares with more recent pre-COVID-19 annual capex of £70–90m. Management is confident of remaining cash positive through the investment phase so special dividends could be considered by the end of the five-year plan, and potentially for FY21, after the resumption of the ordinary dividend at H121.

There is no quoted profitability target to accompany the new revenue ambition due to the inherent cost uncertainties, but management expects to at least sustain the profit margin as operational efficiencies will fund the typical price investment and new/enhanced sustainability requirements (0.5–1.0 margin point per year).

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Greggs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Greggs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

More on Greggs

View All

Latest from the Consumer sector

View All Consumer content

Consumer

Dalata Hotel — A strong hand

Consumer

AG Barr — Fizzing away

Kinepolis hero

Consumer

Kinepolis — On the move

Research: TMT

Claranova — Post-lockdown hangover

Claranova has announced that it expects to report a 5% y-o-y decline in group revenue in Q122 due to lower than expected volumes in its PlanetArt division. After elevated activity during lockdowns, the division is seeing moderating demand, not helped by new privacy rules introduced by Apple. We have revised our forecasts to reflect lower demand in PlanetArt in FY22; we expect more clarity on both customer demand and the marketing environment when Claranova reports Q122 revenues in November.

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free