Rockhopper Exploration

LN: RKH

£103m market cap

22.5p last close

Rockhopper is a London-listed E&P with fully funded development of Sea Lion, a 500+mmbbl field in the Falklands as well as the potential of a similar size discovery to the south. It also holds production and exploration assets in the Mediterranean.

Investment summary

Based on our analysis, we believe the current share price implies a c 20% chance of success for Sea Lion Phase 1 at $70/bbl or c 39% at a $60/bbl long term oil price (excluding any value for further phases of Sea Lion). Given recent progress with the award of letters of intent (LOIs) for key project components and with more than 60 people working on the development, we are more positive on the chance of success. In our view, the key outstanding risks are in project funding and politics. H119 has the potential to be eventful for Rockhopper with more definitive guidance on the availability of export credit funding and a hearing on the Ombrina Mare arbitration, scheduled for February. Our valuation stands at 78.9p/share.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (US$m)
EBITDA (US$m)
PBT (US$m)
EPS (fd) (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2016A 7.4 (15.2) (21.8) (13.4) N/A N/A
2017A 10.4 (2.4) (12.6) (4.5) N/A 81.3
2018E 10.8 (1.1) (12.7) (12.0) N/A 17.9
2019E 10.0 3.0 (9.6) (13.3) N/A 35.1
Last updated on 21/02/2019
Industry outlook

Sea Lion JV is considering export credit and vendor/contractor finance as alternatives for field development. Contractor selection and finalising of LOIs to underpin the provision of vendor funding for US$400m is progressing.

Last updated on 21/02/2019
Sector
Oil & gas
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (US$m) 40.1
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (6.1) (3.9) (4.5)
Relative* (8.5) (5.7) (2.6)
52-week high/low 44.0p/20.2p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Sam Moody CEO
Stewart MacDonald CFO

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