£240.3m market cap
12.46p last close
Pan African Resources has three major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project (20koz) and Elikhulu (55koz), now incorporating Evander Tailings Retreatment Project (10koz).
Investment summary
A 54% increase in gold produced from continuing operations and a 27% decline in AISC combined to result in a 75.3% increase in underlying EBITDA in FY19. Since then, H120 production has been consistent with FY20 guidance of 185koz, which we forecast will drive headline EPS from 1.19 to 2.46 US cents per share.
Y/E Jun |
Revenue (US$m) |
EBITDA (US$m) |
PBT (US$m) |
EPS (c) |
P/E (x) |
P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018A | 145.8 | 38.1 | 29.3 | 1.31 | 12.4 | 55.2 |
| 2019A | 217.4 | 64.0 | 35.6 | 1.56 | 10.4 | 5.5 |
| 2020E | 274.6 | 114.8 | 83.4 | 2.46 | 6.6 | 3.1 |
| 2021E | 309.9 | 149.8 | 120.3 | 3.75 | 4.3 | 2.2 |
Industry outlook
Additional near-term opportunities include the the Fairview sub-vertical shaft (adding 7–10koz to production pa), the Royal Sheba project (c 30koz pa), Egoli (optimised 34% IRR and ZAR1.04bn pre-tax NPV) and the Evander 8 Shaft pillar project (US$25.8m pre-tax NPV), which is already in production and forecast to reach steady-state in March. In the wake of FY19 results, our valuation of PAF has increased to 24.07c/share plus the value of c 19.2m underground Witwatersrand oz (c 0.22–5.24c/share). In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its peers on at least 83% of common valuation measures and cheap relative to its historical P/E ratios with a top tier dividend yield in prospect.
Last updated on 19/02/2020
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Balance sheet |
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| Forecast net debt (US$m) | 113.6 |
| Forecast gearing ratio (%) | 53 |
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Key management |
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| Keith Cousens Spencer | Chairman |
| Cobus Loots | CEO |
| Deon Louw | FD |
