WYG
Written by
WYG |
New orders send positive signals |
Contract wins |
Industrial support services |
31 January 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
WYG is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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The latest contract win announcements continue the order momentum seen at the time of H117 results. The significance of new international workflow will serve to underpin our expectation of an improving overseas contribution and, at the same time, provide post-Brexit reassurance for investors. We expect this will translate to further share price progress.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/15 |
130.5 |
5.7 |
8.6 |
1.0 |
15.2 |
0.8 |
03/16 |
133.5 |
7.0 |
10.6 |
1.5 |
12.3 |
1.1 |
03/17e |
155.0 |
9.7 |
13.2 |
1.8 |
9.9 |
1.4 |
03/18e |
166.0 |
11.0 |
13.6 |
2.0 |
9.6 |
1.5 |
Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
New orders, broad scope
In our post H117 results note, we commented positively on WYG’s reported order book development and its pipeline of prospects. Newly secured contracts with a total value to WYG of €17m have been announced. They relate to multiple countries (in Europe, Africa and South America) with financing from both EU and country-level funds to be spread over four years. The diversity of work is striking and includes technical support for the development of physical assets (eg utilities), governance/financial management and regional co-operation programmes. We note that the country scope now includes Brazil and Lebanon as well as Turkey and the Western Balkans (where WYG has a more established historic presence).
Improving international outlook
At the end of September, WYG’s total order book was c £164m; around £83m related to overseas operations including c £56m for delivery beyond the current year. In this context, €17m (c £14.5m) of new work is a meaningful addition, providing a strong underpin to existing estimates. We model FY17 international revenue of £46m, rising to c £63m by FY19 (EBIT moves from £1.3m to £1.8m on the same basis). So, forward visibility is improving and a simple annual average for the latest contract wins accounts for a good proportion of the uplift outlined. International performance has been patchy in the last couple of years – coinciding with EU funding transition – so progress can now enhance that in the UK. We will review group estimates fully in March based on year-end momentum.
Valuation: Share price progress to continue
Securing EU-funded international work has helped to reassure investors that the Brexit result is not affecting workflows; WYG’s share price has regained the levels seen in the first half of 2016, having rallied from its post-Brexit sell-off. Estimates have risen over the last 12 months and WYG’s FY17 P/E rating currently stands at 9.9x with an EV/EBITDA of 7.6x. With a flagged strategic update to come, WYG’s share price may benefit from further stimulus in the coming months.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£m |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
2019e |
||
March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
IAS19R |
IAS19R |
IAS19R |
IAS19R |
IAS19R |
IAS19R |
IAS19R |
Revenue |
|
|
125.7 |
126.9 |
130.5 |
133.5 |
155.0 |
166.0 |
178.5 |
EBITDA |
|
|
3.3 |
6.4 |
7.2 |
9.0 |
12.4 |
13.7 |
14.5 |
Operating Profit (before GW and except.) |
1.5 |
4.8 |
5.4 |
7.2 |
10.1 |
11.3 |
12.0 |
||
Net Interest |
|
|
(0.8) |
(0.6) |
(0.1) |
(0.2) |
(0.5) |
(0.4) |
(0.3) |
JV / Associates |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Intangible Amortisation |
|
|
(1.0) |
(1.2) |
(1.3) |
(1.5) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
Other |
|
|
(2.5) |
(3.7) |
(2.9) |
(1.5) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(0.6) |
2.4 |
0.0 |
(1.8) |
(1.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
0.7 |
4.3 |
5.7 |
7.0 |
9.7 |
11.0 |
11.7 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(3.3) |
1.8 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
5.7 |
8.0 |
8.7 |
Tax |
|
|
(0.1) |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
(0.9) |
(1.0) |
Minorities |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
0.7 |
4.5 |
6.2 |
7.6 |
9.7 |
10.1 |
10.7 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(3.4) |
2.1 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
5.7 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
64.5 |
64.6 |
65.8 |
70.6 |
68.4 |
68.4 |
68.4 |
|
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
0.8 |
6.4 |
8.6 |
10.6 |
13.2 |
13.6 |
14.4 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
(5.2) |
3.2 |
2.9 |
4.0 |
8.4 |
10.4 |
11.2 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
0.0 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
2.6 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
6.8 |
8.0 |
8.3 |
8.1 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
1.2 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
18.6 |
19.8 |
22.0 |
32.3 |
34.4 |
33.4 |
31.2 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
16.3 |
17.6 |
18.7 |
27.5 |
28.7 |
27.1 |
25.0 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
Investments |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
Current Assets |
|
|
66.8 |
60.0 |
54.6 |
62.5 |
60.7 |
67.1 |
77.4 |
Stocks |
|
|
20.2 |
21.6 |
21.1 |
30.4 |
31.7 |
31.4 |
32.9 |
Debtors |
|
|
23.0 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
19.7 |
20.4 |
22.8 |
24.5 |
Cash |
|
|
19.597 |
15.9 |
12.3 |
8.2 |
5.2 |
9.5 |
16.5 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(45.7) |
(42.9) |
(40.8) |
(50.7) |
(48.9) |
(50.7) |
(52.6) |
Creditors |
|
|
(44.8) |
(42.3) |
(40.8) |
(47.6) |
(48.9) |
(50.7) |
(52.6) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(0.953) |
(0.7) |
0.0 |
(3.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(23.3) |
(16.9) |
(13.2) |
(15.8) |
(11.9) |
(9.7) |
(9.5) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(23.3) |
(16.9) |
(13.2) |
(10.8) |
(6.9) |
(4.7) |
(4.5) |
Net Assets |
|
|
16.4 |
20.1 |
22.5 |
28.3 |
34.3 |
40.1 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(2.6) |
(0.1) |
2.4 |
(1.0) |
8.1 |
10.1 |
12.0 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(0.8) |
(0.5) |
(0.1) |
(0.2) |
(0.5) |
(0.4) |
(0.3) |
Tax |
|
|
(0.2) |
(0.0) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.9) |
(0.9) |
(0.9) |
Capex |
|
|
(1.3) |
(1.4) |
(1.7) |
(2.5) |
(2.9) |
(2.9) |
(2.4) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(0.8) |
(1.4) |
(1.6) |
(7.9) |
(3.0) |
(0.5) |
0.0 |
Financing |
|
|
(0.0) |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividends |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.5) |
(0.8) |
(1.1) |
(1.3) |
(1.4) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(5.6) |
(3.3) |
(2.0) |
(12.6) |
(0.3) |
4.2 |
7.0 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(23.0) |
(18.6) |
(15.2) |
(12.3) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(4.5) |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
|
|
1.3 |
(0.2) |
(0.9) |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(18.6) |
(15.2) |
(12.3) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(4.5) |
(11.5) |
Source: WYG accounts, Edison Investment Research
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