Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Market capitalisation
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Research: Consumer
PPHE has delivered on a confident post-close update with 2016 EBITDA well above expectations. H2 recovery in London despite headwinds and sustained buoyancy in newly consolidated Croatia made up for H1 disappointment, which is all the more encouraging as these are likely to be the company’s medium-term profit drivers. Valuation is low in terms of EV/EBITDA and at a glaring discount to real asset value (‘fair value’ adjustment of c 1,000p/share to reported 782p NAV will only increase on inclusion of new high-value estate).
PPHE Hotel Group |
Up for the challenge |
2016 results |
Travel & leisure |
9 March 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
PPHE Hotel Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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PPHE has delivered on a confident post-close update with 2016 EBITDA well above expectations. H2 recovery in London despite headwinds and sustained buoyancy in newly consolidated Croatia made up for H1 disappointment, which is all the more encouraging as these are likely to be the company’s medium-term profit drivers. Valuation is low in terms of EV/EBITDA and at a glaring discount to real asset value (‘fair value’ adjustment of c 1,000p/share to reported 782p NAV will only increase on inclusion of new high-value estate).
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
EV/EBITDA |
12/15 |
218.7 |
80.1 |
31.8 |
76.1 |
20.0 |
9.3 |
12/16 |
272.5 |
94.1 |
34.2 |
73.9 |
21.0** |
9.9 |
12/17e |
315.0 |
102.0 |
36.0 |
73.9 |
22.0 |
9.3 |
12/18e |
334.0 |
110.0 |
44.0 |
90.8 |
23.0 |
8.4 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Plus 100p special dividend
H2 back on form
After August’s profit warning (higher than expected costs and delayed openings), PPHE’s second half performance makes good reading. London, its largest profit centre, looks to have clearly outperformed the market by almost recovering its H1 RevPAR shortfall (we estimate 5%), thereby mitigating severe cost pressures to deliver maintained EBITDA. In Croatia 11% rate-led revenue gain in its key trading period contributed to pro forma constant currency EBITDA up 8%. External factors were also favourable, notably foreign exchange, reclassification of pre-opening costs as exceptional and a one-off €1m lower incentive rent in Germany as well as delays to the openings of Waterloo and Park Royal, which curbed trading losses. Predictably, Netherlands softened (RevPAR -5%) after a strong H1, partly because sterling weakness depressed Amsterdam’s key feeder market from the UK.
2017 EBITDA forecast raised by £3m
Our confidence in more of the same underpins our current-year upgrade (details on page 2). In London costs remain an issue but there is reassurance in the benefit of a weaker pound on inbound tourism and staycations as well as certain major sporting events. Security and geopolitical concerns apart, PWC forecasts RevPAR growth of c 3% this year and next. We are now also more positive about Croatia where strong demand and investment should broadly maintain 2017 EBITDA (albeit currency assisted) despite first inclusion of its off-season Q1 (estimated £3m loss). In contrast, we are lowering our forecast boost from c 900 new rooms in London as Waterloo is not fully open until H2 and Park Royal’s soft opening is delayed to Q2.
Valuation: Underrated
PPHE’s 2018e EV/EBITDA rating of 8.4x appears below the average (8.9x) of European branded peers. Fair value adjustment of £439m, as reported at December 2016, results in an adjusted NAV of c £18.20 per share with a further material uplift expected as the new London hotels come on stream.
Exhibit 1: Analysis of revenue and profit
Y/E December (£m) |
H115 |
H215 |
FY15 |
H116 |
H216 |
FY16 |
2017e |
2018e |
Revenue |
||||||||
UK |
||||||||
London |
||||||||
RevPAR |
£124 |
£144 |
£134 |
£118 |
£150 |
£135 |
£136 |
£137 |
Change |
Flat |
+1% |
+1% |
-5% |
+4% |
Flat |
+1% |
+1% |
Available rooms |
1880 |
1880 |
1880 |
1898 |
1910** |
1904** |
2052** |
2082 |
Room revenue |
42.4 |
49.5 |
91.9 |
41.0 |
52.8 |
93.8 |
102.0 |
104.0 |
Non-room revenue |
20.9 |
22.8 |
43.7 |
20.5 |
22.5 |
43.0 |
45.0 |
45.5 |
Existing revenue |
63.3 |
72.3 |
135.6 |
61.5 |
75.3 |
136.8 |
147.0 |
149.5 |
Waterloo + Park Royal* |
- |
- |
- |
- |
0.4 |
0.4 |
24.0 |
34.0 |
Total London revenue |
63.3 |
72.3 |
135.6 |
61.5 |
75.7 |
137.2 |
171.0 |
183.5 |
Leeds and Nottingham |
5.2 |
6.6 |
11.8 |
4.9 |
6.6 |
11.5 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
UK |
68.5 |
78.9 |
147.4 |
66.4 |
82.3 |
148.7 |
183.0 |
195.5 |
Netherlands (€m) |
28.4 |
30.1 |
58.5 |
29.6 |
29.4 |
59.0 |
57.0*** |
60.0 |
Exchange rate |
1.38 |
1.39 |
1.38 |
1.28 |
1.17 |
1.22 |
1.15 |
1.15 |
Netherlands |
20.6 |
21.7 |
42.3 |
23.2 |
25.1 |
48.3 |
49.5 |
52.0 |
Croatia (HRKm)**** |
- |
- |
- |
92.1 |
331.0 |
423.1 |
435.0 |
450.0 |
Exchange rate |
- |
- |
- |
9.63 |
8.96 |
9.17 |
8.70 |
8.70 |
Croatia |
- |
- |
- |
9.6**** |
36.5 |
46.1 |
50.0 |
52.0 |
Germany and Hungary***** |
10.4 |
11.4 |
21.8 |
10.6 |
14.5 |
25.0 |
28.5 |
29.5 |
Owned & leased hotels |
99.5 |
112.0 |
211.5 |
109.7 |
158.4 |
268.1 |
311.0 |
329.0 |
Management and holdings |
2.7 |
4.5 |
7.2 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
TOTAL |
103.2 |
116.5 |
218.7 |
111.6 |
160.9 |
272.5 |
315.0 |
334.0 |
EBITDA |
||||||||
UK |
||||||||
London |
||||||||
Existing |
23.6 |
28.8 |
52.4 |
20.3 |
29.4 |
49.7 |
50.0 |
50.0 |
Margin (%) |
37 |
40 |
39 |
33 |
39 |
36 |
34 |
33 |
Waterloo + Park Royal* |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
5.0 |
10.0 |
Total London EBITDA |
23.6 |
28.8 |
52.4 |
20.3 |
28.9 |
49.2 |
55.0 |
60.0 |
Leeds and Nottingham |
0.8 |
1.2 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
UK |
24.4 |
30.0 |
54.4 |
21.0 |
30.1 |
51.1 |
57.0 |
62.0 |
Netherlands (€m) |
8.8 |
9.8 |
18.6 |
9.5 |
8.4 |
17.9 |
16.5 |
17.5 |
Exchange rate |
1.38 |
1.39 |
1.38 |
1.28 |
1.17 |
1.22 |
1.15 |
1.15 |
Netherlands |
6.4 |
7.0 |
13.4 |
7.4 |
7.2 |
14.6 |
14.5 |
15.3 |
Croatia (HRKm)**** |
- |
- |
- |
14.9 |
139.0 |
153.9 |
139.0 |
148.0 |
Exchange rate |
- |
- |
- |
9.63 |
8.96 |
9.17 |
8.70 |
8.70 |
Croatia** |
- |
- |
- |
1.5 |
15.3 |
16.8 |
16.0 |
17.0 |
Germany and Hungary***** |
(0.4) |
0.1 |
(0.4) |
(0.8) |
1.7*** |
0.9 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
Owned & leased hotels |
30.3 |
37.1 |
67.5 |
29.2 |
54.2 |
83.4 |
90.5 |
96.5 |
Management and holdings |
4.8 |
7.8 |
12.6 |
3.3 |
7.4 |
10.7 |
11.5 |
13.5 |
TOTAL |
35.1 |
45.0 |
80.1 |
32.5 |
61.6 |
94.1 |
102.0 |
110.0 |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *December 2016: Waterloo 494 rooms and 4.17 Park Royal 212 rooms; we assume 530 rooms average in 2017. **Including December 2016 Riverbank extension 184 rooms and rooms off at Sherlock Holmes (estimated 30). ***Rooms off in Amsterdam (estimated 50). ****From April 2016. *****Including June 2016 Nuremberg 177 rooms and July 2016 termination of Berlin lease 155 rooms; H215 restated for comparability.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
£000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
|||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
|
218,700 |
272,500 |
315,000 |
334,000 |
EBITDA |
|
|
|
80,100 |
94,100 |
102,000 |
110,000 |
Operating Profit (before amort and except) |
|
|
63,100 |
70,900 |
75,500 |
82,500 |
|
Intangible Amortisation |
(2,000) |
(2,500) |
(2,500) |
(2,500) |
|||
Operating Profit |
61,100 |
68,400 |
73,000 |
80,000 |
|||
Net Interest |
(29,300) |
(34,900) |
(39,500) |
(38,500) |
|||
Associates |
(2,000) |
(1,800) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Exceptionals |
(1,800) |
6,500 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
|
31,800 |
34,200 |
36,000 |
44,000 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
|
28,000 |
38,200 |
33,500 |
41,500 |
Tax |
1,200 |
(100) |
(1,500) |
(2,000) |
|||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
33,000 |
34,100 |
34,500 |
42,000 |
|||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
29,200 |
38,100 |
32,000 |
39,500 |
|||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
41.8 |
42.2 |
42.2 |
42.2 |
|||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
|
76.1 |
73.9 |
73.9 |
90.8 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
|
76.1 |
73.9 |
73.9 |
90.8 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
|
69.9 |
83.2 |
68.7 |
85.3 |
Dividend per share (p) |
20.0 |
21.0 |
22.0 |
23.0 |
|||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
36.6 |
34.5 |
32.4 |
32.9 |
|||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
28.9 |
26.0 |
24.0 |
24.7 |
|||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
|
885,600 |
1,122,300 |
1,150,000 |
1,135,000 |
Intangible Assets |
21,900 |
25,200 |
23,000 |
21,000 |
|||
Tangible Assets |
687,500 |
947,200 |
970,000 |
960,000 |
|||
Income units sold to private investors |
125,500 |
122,500 |
120,000 |
118,000 |
|||
Investments |
50,700 |
27,400 |
37,000 |
36,000 |
|||
Current Assets |
|
|
|
71,700 |
195,600 |
123,000 |
126,000 |
Restricted deposits |
3,200 |
25,500 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
|||
Stocks |
1,000 |
2,400 |
3,000 |
3,200 |
|||
Debtors |
9,100 |
12,600 |
13,000 |
13,800 |
|||
Cash |
50,600 |
144,700 |
80,000 |
80,000 |
|||
Other |
7,800 |
10,400 |
12,000 |
14,000 |
|||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
(59,900) |
(173,000) |
(75,700) |
(76,700) |
Creditors |
(48,500) |
(54,700) |
(55,700) |
(56,700) |
|||
Deposits from unit holders |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Short term borrowings |
(11,400) |
(118,300) |
(20,000) |
(20,000) |
|||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
|
(629,500) |
(814,700) |
(845,000) |
(807,000) |
Long term borrowings |
(440,100) |
(642,100) |
(682,000) |
(651,000) |
|||
Financial liability to unit holders |
(136,200) |
(134,000) |
(132,000) |
(128,000) |
|||
Other long term liabilities |
(53,200) |
(38,600) |
(31,000) |
(28,000) |
|||
Net Assets |
|
|
|
267,900 |
330,200 |
352,300 |
377,300 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
|
83,200 |
79,500 |
102,000 |
110,000 |
Net Interest |
(32,500) |
(37,300) |
(38,800) |
(38,500) |
|||
Tax |
(100) |
0 |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
|||
Capex |
(63,100) |
(87,300) |
(75,000) |
(30,000) |
|||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(3,600) |
(64,300) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Exchange rate |
6,000 |
(26,700) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Dividends |
(8,300) |
(50,600) |
(9,300) |
(9,500) |
|||
Other |
(5,800) |
(500) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Net Cash Flow |
(24,200) |
(187,200) |
(22,100) |
31,000 |
|||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
|
373,500 |
397,700 |
584,900 |
607,000 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
|
397,700 |
584,900 |
607,000 |
576,000 |
Source: PPHE Hotel Group accounts, Edison Investment Research
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