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Research: Energy & Resources
We have slightly increased our valuation of Egdon’s conventional asset base from 12.5p/share to 12.7p/share (+2%). Moving parts include higher forecast Ceres production in FY19 and a stronger dollar offset by the removal of Holmwood. Our valuation of Egdon’s net shale resource (188,000 net acres) remains uncertain but, in our view, has the potential to be worth a risked c 100p/share based on current expectations of well cost, type curves and forward gas prices. Appraisal activity at Cuadrilla operated Preston New Road is set to provide information on horizontal well flow rates in the Bowland Basin with results due at the end of CY18 or early 2019. Initial flow-back gas at Preston New Road announced on 2 November is encouraging.
Written by
Egdon Resources |
UK shale appraisal in focus |
FY18 results |
Oil & gas |
12 November 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Egdon Resources is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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We have slightly increased our valuation of Egdon’s conventional asset base from 12.5p/share to 12.7p/share (+2%). Moving parts include higher forecast Ceres production in FY19 and a stronger dollar offset by the removal of Holmwood. Our valuation of Egdon’s net shale resource (188,000 net acres) remains uncertain but, in our view, has the potential to be worth a risked c 100p/share based on current expectations of well cost, type curves and forward gas prices. Appraisal activity at Cuadrilla operated Preston New Road is set to provide information on horizontal well flow rates in the Bowland Basin with results due at the end of CY18 or early 2019. Initial flow-back gas at Preston New Road announced on 2 November is encouraging.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
Net cash/ |
EBITDA |
Capex |
07/17 |
1.0 |
(2.2) |
6.1 |
(1.2) |
(1.1) |
07/18 |
0.8 |
(1.7) |
2.8 |
(2.2) |
(1.8) |
07/19e |
3.2 |
(0.6) |
0.9 |
0.1 |
(2.4) |
07/20e |
4.2 |
(2.0) |
(0.2) |
(0.1) |
(1.5) |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Small upgrade to conventional value
Our valuation of Egdon’s conventional asset portfolio increases by 2%, driven by higher than expected gas production from Ceres in FY19 and a stronger dollar, but offset by the removal of Holmwood where the site lease was not renewed. The operator is looking at new site locations for the drilling of Holmwood, and we expect to revisit this asset once new plans emerge. Production guidance for H119 stands at 150–180boed with Ceres gas production expected to increase over the year and H219 (Edison estimates 211boed for FY19).
Upcoming activity
Drilling operations are expected to commence at Biscathorpe (Egdon 35.8% part carried) in late 2018, aiming to evaluate the 1987 BP oil discovery with net mean prospective resource of 5mmbo. Spud of the play opening unconventional exploration well at Springs Road-1 in the Gainsborough Trough (Egdon 14.5% carried) is expected in early 2019. Drilling at North Kelsey and Resolution/Endeavour remains contingent on farm-down/external investment.
Valuation: An option on UK shale
At end-July 2018 Egdon had cash of £2.8m, which we expect to cover anticipated costs (post farm-down) through most of FY19. This is contingent on oil and gas price realisations. We have slightly increased our conventional valuation from 12.5p/share to 12.7p/share. We believe the key value proposition for shareholders is Egdon’s net UK shale exposure and conventional E&A.
Key valuation changes
We make several changes to our conventional valuation, with the net impact slightly increasing our RENAV from 12.5p/share to 12.7p/share. Key changes include:
■
Increased FY19 production expectations for Ceres after re-start of production in November 2018 following the installation of a new flowmeter. Egdon expects to update Ceres production expectations once production has stabilised.
■
Removal of Holmwood from asset value until a new drilling site location has been confirmed.
■
A small increase in UK NBP gas price assumptions from 56p/therm to 59p/therm CY18 (inflated by 2.5% thereafter) based on current spot prices and the forward curve.
■
Movement in exchange rate from US$/£1.37 to US$/£1.33 (based on six-month historical average).
Exhibit 1: Egdon detailed valuation
Country |
WI |
CCoS |
Net |
NPV/boe |
NPV12.5 |
Risked |
|
Assets |
% |
% |
mmboe |
$/boe |
$m |
/share (p) |
|
Net cash at January 2018 |
5.4 |
1.6 |
|||||
G&A (3yrs) |
(3.8) |
(1.1) |
|||||
Production |
|||||||
Keddington |
UK |
45% |
100% |
0.06 |
(10.7) |
(0.7) |
0.0 |
Ceres |
UK |
10% |
100% |
0.44 |
11.5 |
5.0 |
1.4 |
Fiskerton |
UK |
80% |
100% |
0.08 |
9.3 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
Wressle (Ashover Grit) |
UK |
30% |
60% |
0.15 |
23.6 |
2.1 |
0.6 |
Core NAV |
8.8 |
2.7 |
|||||
Exploration |
|||||||
North Kelsey |
UK |
80% |
12% |
4.94 |
11.1 |
6.6 |
1.9 |
Louth |
UK |
65% |
20% |
0.85 |
10.3 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
Wressle (upside) |
UK |
30% |
25% |
0.46 |
17.7 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
Broughton |
UK |
25% |
23% |
0.11 |
17.7 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
Biscathorpe |
UK |
36% |
20% |
4.91 |
12.8 |
12.6 |
3.6 |
Resolution |
UK |
50% |
18% |
12.52 |
5.1 |
11.1 |
3.2 |
Appraisal & Exploration NAV |
|
|
|
|
|
34.5 |
10.0 |
RENAV |
|
|
|
|
|
43.3 |
12.7 |
Indicative shale valuation P50 |
UK |
50% |
67% |
344.3 |
99.5 |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: US$/£1.33, shares 260m.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
£000's |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
|
July |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
1,586 |
1,039 |
779 |
3,214 |
4,243 |
Cost of Sales |
(3,206) |
(1,576) |
(1,754) |
(1,579) |
(2,831) |
|
Gross Profit |
(1,620) |
(537) |
(975) |
1,635 |
1,412 |
|
EBITDA |
|
(733) |
(1,193) |
(2,219) |
135 |
(88) |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
(4,571) |
(2,121) |
(1,656) |
(528) |
(1,934) |
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Operating Profit |
(4,571) |
(2,121) |
(1,656) |
(528) |
(1,934) |
|
Net Interest |
(34) |
(42) |
(41) |
(48) |
(48) |
|
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
(4,604) |
(2,163) |
(1,697) |
(576) |
(1,982) |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
(4,604) |
(2,163) |
(1,697) |
(576) |
(1,982) |
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(4,604) |
(2,163) |
(1,697) |
(576) |
(1,982) |
|
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(4,604) |
(2,163) |
(1,697) |
(576) |
(1,982) |
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
221 |
249 |
260 |
260 |
260 |
|
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
(2.1) |
(0.9) |
(0.7) |
(0.2) |
(0.8) |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
(1.2) |
(0.7) |
(0.8) |
(0.2) |
(0.8) |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
(2.1) |
(0.9) |
(0.7) |
(0.2) |
(0.8) |
Dividend per share (p) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Gross Margin (%) |
-102.1 |
-51.7 |
-125.2 |
50.9 |
33.3 |
|
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-46.2 |
-114.8 |
-284.9 |
4.2 |
-2.1 |
|
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
-288.2 |
-204.1 |
-212.7 |
-16.4 |
-45.6 |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
27,053 |
28,495 |
30,105 |
31,872 |
31,530 |
Intangible Assets |
18,370 |
19,231 |
19,572 |
21,363 |
22,063 |
|
Tangible Assets |
8,683 |
9,264 |
10,534 |
10,509 |
9,467 |
|
Investments |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Current Assets |
|
5,270 |
7,613 |
4,020 |
2,178 |
1,038 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
|
Debtors |
2,541 |
1,507 |
1,240 |
1,240 |
1,240 |
|
Cash |
2,679 |
6,057 |
2,772 |
930 |
(210)* |
|
Other |
50 |
50 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Current Liabilities |
|
(1,085) |
(1,216) |
(1,150) |
(1,150) |
(1,150) |
Creditors |
(1,085) |
(1,216) |
(1,150) |
(1,150) |
(1,150) |
|
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Long Term Liabilities |
|
(1,803) |
(2,187) |
(2,249) |
(2,249) |
(2,249) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Other long term liabilities |
(1,803) |
(2,187) |
(2,249) |
(2,249) |
(2,249) |
|
Net Assets |
|
29,435 |
32,705 |
30,727 |
30,651 |
29,169 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
(159) |
(422) |
(1,629) |
635 |
412 |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(48) |
(48) |
|
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Capex |
(2,379) |
(1,054) |
(1,825) |
(2,429) |
(1,504) |
|
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
137 |
0 |
0 |
|
Equity Financing |
0 |
4,865 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Other cash flow |
8 |
5 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net Cash Flow |
(2,529) |
3,394 |
(3,308) |
(1,842) |
(1,140) |
|
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
(5,180) |
(2,678) |
(6,056) |
(2,771) |
(929) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Other |
(28) |
16 |
(23) |
(0) |
0 |
|
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
(2,678) |
(6,056) |
(2,771) |
(929) |
211 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *A small amount (£0.210m) of equity or debt funding required based on current projections.
|
|
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