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TXT e-solutions — Update 10 March 2016

TXT e-solutions (Euronext STAR Milan: TXT)

Last close As at 05/08/2026

—

— 0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

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More on this equity

Research: TMT

TXT e-solutions — Update 10 March 2016

TXT e-solutions

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

TXT e-solutions

TXT Next is next for international expansion

FY15 results

Software & comp services

11 March 2016

Price

€7.59

Market cap

€99m

$1.10:€

Net cash (€m) at end FY15

8.3

Shares in issue

11.7m

Free float

43%

Code

TXT

Primary exchange

Borsa Italiana (STAR)

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

2.6

(4.3)

(13.1)

Rel (local)

(5.2)

12.4

5.1

52-week high/low

€9.36

€7.11

Business description

TXT e-solutions has two divisions: TXT Perform, which provides software solutions for supply chain management in the international retail and consumer-driven industrial sectors; and TXT Next, which provides IT, consulting and R&D services to Italian aerospace, high-tech manufacturing, banking and finance customers.

Next event

Q116 results

13 May 2016

Analysts

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

TXT e-solutions is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

TXT reported strong FY15 revenue growth of 13%, with double-digit growth from both divisions, and normalised EPS ahead of our forecast. The planned acquisition of PACE adds higher-margin aerospace software capability and accelerates TXT Next’s quest to expand its addressable market outside of Italy. We have incorporated PACE into our estimates, forecasting normalised EPS growth of 16% in FY16 and 9% in FY17.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/14

54.4

4.0

0.28

0.23

29.8

3.5

12/15

61.5

5.7

0.40

0.25

20.9

2.4

12/16e

70.3

7.1

0.47

0.26

17.8

2.0

12/17e

74.5

7.7

0.51

0.27

16.4

1.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY15 results ahead of expectations

TXT reported revenues 1.5% ahead of our forecast for FY15, with EBITDA 2.6% ahead (EBITDA margin 10.8%) and normalised EPS 7.9% ahead. Revenue growth was 12.4% for TXT Perform and 14.2% for TXT Next. Late payments post year-end by several large customers took year-end net cash below our forecast.

TXT Next acquisition enhances software capabilities

TXT is on track to acquire PACE on 1 April for consideration of up to €7.5m in cash. The addition of PACE brings specialist aerospace software to TXT Next’s existing (predominantly Italian) aerospace business, as well as a larger international customer base. We have incorporated the company into our forecasts from the beginning of Q216, forecasting a revenue contribution of €5.4m in FY16 and €7.6m in FY17 at a similar EBITDA margin to the existing TXT group margin.

Forecasts and valuation: Growing software contribution to boost profitability

As a result of incorporating PACE and slightly increasing our growth assumptions for TXT Perform, we raise our FY16 revenue forecast by 11% (14% y-o-y growth) and our normalised EPS forecast by 3%, and introduce a FY17 revenue growth forecast of 6% with EPS growth of 9%. The stock trades on a P/E of 17.1x FY16e and 15.7x FY17e based on normalised EPS. This is a discount to global supply chain software vendors and a premium to European IT services companies, which is reasonable considering the current split of the business. Even after acquiring PACE, we forecast a strong net cash position and a dividend yield above 3% for FY16/17. If TXT is able to successfully integrate and grow the PACE business as well as sell TXT Next’s existing services to PACE’s international customer, we see scope for stronger growth in TXT Next and margin enhancement. For TXT Perform, key growth drivers include the North American business and the recently established Asia Pacific operations.

Review of FY15 results

Exhibit 1: FY15 results highlights

€m

FY15e

FY15a

Diff.

y-o-y

Revenues

60.6

61.5

1.5%

13.1%

TXT Perform

36.2

36.7

1.2%

12.4%

TXT Next

24.4

24.9

2.0%

14.2%

Gross margin

52.0%

52.6%

0.5pp

Gross profit

31.5

32.4

2.6%

15.7%

EBITDA

6.5

6.7

2.5%

25.1%

EBITDA margin

10.7%

10.8%

0.1pp

Normalised EBIT

5.7

5.8

2.3%

35.9%

Normalised EBIT margin

9.4%

9.5%

0.1%

Normalised net income

4.4

4.7

7.0%

46.9%

Normalised EPS (€)

0.37

0.40

7.9%

45.5%

Reported basic EPS (€)

0.34

0.33

-2.0%

-8.6%

Net cash (€m)

12.2

8.3

-32.3%

-2.4%

Dividend (€)

0.24

0.25

5.8%

10.0%

Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research

TXT reported revenue growth of 13.1% for FY15, with both TXT Perform and TXT Next achieving double-digit growth rates. With a higher proportion of software licensing in FY15 than in FY14, gross margin expanded by 1.2pp to 52.6%. Despite higher investment over the year in R&D and sales & marketing and legal costs incurred in Q415 for the PACE acquisition, EBITDA grew 25%
y-o-y, achieving an EBITDA margin of 10.8% (FY14: 9.8%). Year-end net cash was affected by delays in payment by several large customers, leading to a higher than expected year-end debtor position. These invoices were paid in January. The company announced a dividend of €0.25 for FY15, marginally above our €0.24 estimate.

Business update

TXT Next expands with the acquisition of PACE

TXT recently announced that it had agreed to acquire 79% of PACE, a German software vendor focused on the aerospace market.

Terms of the deal

TXT is paying initial cash consideration of €5.6m for 79% of the company held by private equity investors (eCAPITAL, Strategic European Technologies and IBB Beteiligungsgesellschaft). There is also a put/call option for the remaining 21% stake (owned by the three founders) exercisable from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021. Contingent consideration of c €1.9m is payable in 2016 and 2017 subject to meeting targets for FY15 and FY16. Taking into account estimated closing net cash of €1.7m, the consideration values PACE on a historic EV/sales multiple of 0.7x initial and 1.1x maximum consideration and EV/EBITDA of 6.7x and 9.7x respectively. In our view, this valuation is attractive considering the cross-selling potential offered by the business. The acquisition is scheduled to complete on 1 April 2016.

Background

PACE was founded in Michael Kokorniak, Dr Oliver Kranz and Alexander Schneegans and now has 70 employees, with the majority based at its Berlin headquarters. The business specialises in developing and selling software to the aerospace industry. The table below summarises the company’s product range:

Exhibit 2: PACE product suite

Solution

Functionality

Preliminary aircraft design

Pacelab Suite

Platform that supplies functional & procedural infrastructure for early-stage product design.

Pacelab APD

Supports development of conventional and unconventional aircraft in the conceptual and preliminary design phases.

Pacelab SysArc

Built on Pacelab APD, adds a functional layer for building, analysing and optimizing system and sub-system architectures.

Aircraft marketing & acquisition

Pacelab Cabin

Aircraft and cabin configurator that supports aircraft manufacturers, seat & component suppliers, airlines and consultants with detailed cabin investigations and feasibility studies.

Pacelab Mission Suite

Integrated software solution for route analysis, aircraft performance and economic investigations.

Pacelab Route Network Analyser

Windows app which brings the route analysis capabilities of Pacelab Mission Suite to tablet computers and mobile phones.

Flight operations

Pacelab CI Ops

Enables flight crews to flexibly determine the most cost-efficient trajectory whenever flight conditions have changed.

Pacelab Flight Profile Optimiser

Complements the functional scope of flight management systems with advanced flight profile optimization capabilities.

Pacelab EFB Flight Data Recorder

Collects user-definable operational efficiency parameters from the ARINC buses 429 and 717, which can be made available for post-flight analysis.

Solution

Preliminary aircraft design

Pacelab Suite

Pacelab APD

Pacelab SysArc

Aircraft marketing & acquisition

Pacelab Cabin

Pacelab Mission Suite

Pacelab Route Network Analyser

Flight operations

Pacelab CI Ops

Pacelab Flight Profile Optimiser

Pacelab EFB Flight Data Recorder

Functionality

Platform that supplies functional & procedural infrastructure for early-stage product design.

Supports development of conventional and unconventional aircraft in the conceptual and preliminary design phases.

Built on Pacelab APD, adds a functional layer for building, analysing and optimizing system and sub-system architectures.

Aircraft and cabin configurator that supports aircraft manufacturers, seat & component suppliers, airlines and consultants with detailed cabin investigations and feasibility studies.

Integrated software solution for route analysis, aircraft performance and economic investigations.

Windows app which brings the route analysis capabilities of Pacelab Mission Suite to tablet computers and mobile phones.

Enables flight crews to flexibly determine the most cost-efficient trajectory whenever flight conditions have changed.

Complements the functional scope of flight management systems with advanced flight profile optimization capabilities.

Collects user-definable operational efficiency parameters from the ARINC buses 429 and 717, which can be made available for post-flight analysis.

Source: PACE

Customers include more than 50 companies covering aircraft and engine manufacturing, airlines, civil and defence operators, and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), including Airbus, Air France & KLM Engineering, Boeing, COMAC, Delta Airlines, Embraer, GE Aviation, Lufthansa, Rolls-Royce, Safran Group and Sukhoi.

Deal rationale

TXT Next already has a significant aerospace-focused business, providing IT, consulting and R&D services to mainly Italian-based business such as Finmeccanica. The addition of PACE brings specialist aerospace software as well as a larger international customer base. From PACE’s perspective, TXT Next has a large number of qualified consultants who are able to provide services to PACE’s client base. The business will continue to trade under the PACE brand with the three founders continuing as managing directors.

TXT Perform: Strong performance from Retail business

During FY15 the division made progress with its internationalisation plans, opening an office in Hong Kong and subsequently winning a substantial contract (licence fee of more than €1m) with Duty Free Stores in Q216 out of this office. Exhibit 3 shows how lumpy licensing revenues contribute to variability in divisional revenues on a quarterly basis.

Exhibit 3: TXT Perform revenues

€m

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Revenues

8.67

7.95

7.71

8.30

8.64

10.16

8.45

9.43

Q-o-Q

11.6%

-8.3%

-3.0%

7.7%

4.1%

17.6%

-16.9%

11.7%

Y-o-Y

10.9%

5.0%

-9.3%

6.8%

-0.4%

27.8%

9.5%

13.6%

Source: TXT e-solutions

In 2015, the division signed software contracts with a variety of international customers, including Columbia Sportsware (US), Adidas (Germany), Gazal (Australia), Swatch (Switzerland), Sonae (Portugal), Furla (Italy), Monoprix (France) and White Stuff (UK).

Outlook and changes to forecasts

The company has highlighted that TXT Perform may see slowing growth in Q116, reflecting the conversion of the pipeline in Q415 and negotiations with customers for contracts likely to fall into Q216.

We have incorporated PACE into our forecasts from the beginning of Q216. We assume a revenue contribution of €5.4m in FY16 rising to €7.6m in FY17. We assume that it has a similar gross margin profile to TXT for software license sales, maintenance, and services. We note that the PACE acquisition adds a higher margin software component to TXT Next, which has traditionally generated revenues from services. This drives an increase in our revenue forecast of 11.2%, dropping down to a normalised EPS increase of 3.3%, after taking into account the PACE minority interest. We have assumed that the contingent consideration of €1.9m is paid out over the course of FY16 and FY17.

We introduce FY17 forecasts for TXT, assuming revenue growth of 2.3% for TXT Perform and 4.2% organic revenue growth for TXT Next. This results in group revenue growth of 6.0% and normalised EPS growth of 8.7%.

We have marginally increased our dividend forecast for FY16 and introduce a €0.27 forecast for FY17.

Exhibit 4: Changes to forecasts

FY16e old

FY16e new

change

y-o-y

FY17e new

y-o-y

Revenues (€m)

63.2

70.3

11.2%

14.2%

74.5

6.0%

TXT Perform

37.8

38.9

3.0%

6.1%

39.8

2.3%

TXT Next

25.5

31.4

23.3%

26.3%

34.7

10.5%

Gross margin

50.9%

53.6%

2.7%

53.7%

0.1%

Gross profit (€m)

32.2

37.7

17.0%

16.4%

40.0

6.2%

EBITDA (€m)

7.4

7.9

6.6%

18.6%

8.5

7.9%

EBITDA margin

11.7%

11.2%

-0.5%

11.4%

0.2%

Normalised EBIT (€m)

6.8

7.2

4.9%

22.9%

7.8

8.8%

Normalised EBIT margin

10.8%

10.2%

-0.6%

10.4%

0.3%

Normalised net income (€m)

5.4

5.5

3.1%

16.9%

6.0

8.7%

Normalised EPS (€)

0.45

0.47

3.3%

16.2%

0.51

8.7%

Reported basic EPS (€)

0.42

0.43

2.0%

28.8%

0.46

8.1%

Net cash (€m)

14.7

7.2

-50.7%

-12.3%

8.7

20.3%

Dividend (€)

0.25

0.26

5.9%

4.0%

0.27

3.8%

Source: Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 5: Financial summary

€'000s

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

46,499

52,560

54,410

61,540

70,293

74,484

Cost of sales

(22,351)

(24,854)

(26,455)

(29,189)

(32,623)

(34,487)

Gross profit

24,148

27,706

27,955

32,351

37,670

39,998

EBITDA

 

 

5,322

6,263

5,324

6,659

7,900

8,528

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

 

4,283

5,241

4,284

5,820

7,150

7,778

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

(285)

(285)

(285)

(285)

(285)

Exceptionals and other income

939

0

1,468

0

0

0

Other income

0

0

0

(740)

(400)

(500)

Operating Profit

5,222

4,956

5,467

4,795

6,465

6,993

Net Interest

(37)

(435)

(249)

(151)

(100)

(100)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

4,246

4,806

4,035

5,669

7,050

7,678

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

5,185

4,521

5,218

4,644

6,365

6,893

Tax

(188)

121

(1,046)

(762)

(1,273)

(1,379)

Profit After Tax (norm)

4,092

4,927

3,226

4,739

5,640

6,142

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

4,997

4,642

4,172

3,882

5,092

5,514

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

11.0

11.5

11.5

11.7

11.7

11.7

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

37

43

28

41

48

52

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

34

41

28

40

47

51

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

45

40

36

33

43

46

Dividend per share (c)

18.2

22.7

22.7

25.0

26.0

27.0

Gross margin (%)

51.9

52.7

51.4

52.6

53.6

53.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.4

11.9

9.8

10.8

11.2

11.4

Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%)

9.2

10.0

7.9

9.5

10.2

10.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

18,570

17,850

18,019

18,132

23,617

23,302

Intangible Assets

16,621

15,370

15,078

14,692

20,177

19,862

Tangible Assets

1,154

1,118

1,249

1,361

1,361

1,361

Other

795

1,362

1,692

2,079

2,079

2,079

Current Assets

 

 

36,769

34,914

34,892

38,946

39,128

42,418

Stocks

1,388

1,451

1,820

2,075

2,175

2,275

Debtors

19,562

18,642

20,768

27,791

28,888

30,610

Cash

15,819

14,821

12,304

9,080

8,066

9,533

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(20,651)

(17,864)

(17,451)

(18,349)

(21,440)

(21,432)

Creditors

(15,155)

(14,512)

(15,297)

(17,528)

(20,619)

(20,611)

Short term borrowings

(5,496)

(3,352)

(2,154)

(821)

(821)

(821)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(8,666)

(6,965)

(6,491)

(5,105)

(5,105)

(5,105)

Long term borrowings

(4,301)

(2,896)

(1,685)

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(4,365)

(4,069)

(4,806)

(5,105)

(5,105)

(5,105)

Net Assets

 

 

26,022

27,935

28,969

33,624

36,201

39,183

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

2,760

7,630

5,404

2,412

9,194

7,298

Net Interest

(37)

(435)

(249)

(151)

(100)

(100)

Tax

64

(1,615)

(1,344)

(1,461)

(1,273)

(1,379)

Capex

(405)

(483)

(615)

(763)

(720)

(720)

Acquisitions/disposals

(8,450)

19

0

0

(5,200)

(600)

Financing

1,690

(755)

(597)

2,215

0

0

Dividends

0

(2,107)

(2,615)

(2,678)

(2,915)

(3,032)

Net Cash Flow

(4,378)

2,254

(16)

(426)

(1,014)

1,468

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10,266)

(6,023)

(8,575)

(8,465)

(8,259)

(7,245)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

135

298

(94)

220

(0)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(6,023)

(8,575)

(8,465)

(8,259)

(7,245)

(8,712)

Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by TXT e-solutions and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. 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Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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