Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP19.60
▲ 20.00 (1.03%)
Market capitalisation
GBP239m
Research: Financials
Interim results, for the six months to 31 July (H125), will be published on 8 October. Ahead of that, S&U has alerted the market that based on the H1 performance, full year PBT is unlikely to meet the previous market consensus expectations. We believe this to be primarily a timing issue, reflecting the continuing impact of the temporary FCA restrictions on collections activity in the motor finance business. Once regulatory clarity has been established, we expect a significant recovery. Meanwhile, as previously reported, the property lending division continues to perform strongly. We have reduced our FY25 PBT estimate by 7% to £27m and will review our FY26 forecasts with the interim results.
S&U |
Timing is everything |
Pre-interims trading update |
Financial services |
23 September 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
S&U is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Interim results, for the six months to 31 July (H125), will be published on 8 October. Ahead of that, S&U has alerted the market that based on the H1 performance, full year PBT is unlikely to meet the previous market consensus expectations. We believe this to be primarily a timing issue, reflecting the continuing impact of the temporary FCA restrictions on collections activity in the motor finance business. Once regulatory clarity has been established, we expect a significant recovery. Meanwhile, as previously reported, the property lending division continues to perform strongly. We have reduced our FY25 PBT estimate by 7% to £27m and will review our FY26 forecasts with the interim results.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
01/23 |
102.7 |
41.4 |
277.5 |
133.0 |
5.7 |
8.4 |
01/24 |
115.4 |
33.6 |
209.3 |
120.0 |
7.5 |
7.6 |
01/25e |
123.3 |
27.0 |
166.9 |
120.0 |
9.5 |
7.6 |
01/26e |
130.3 |
36.2 |
223.4 |
125.0 |
7.1 |
7.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
The good and the bad
In August, S&U provided an update on its H125 operational performance. This contrasted the strong performance of Aspen Bridging, its property lending business, with that of its motor finance business, Advantage. S&U expects H125 PBT of c £12.8m, which, because of the pressures on Advantage, is below its earlier expectations. As a result, it no longer expects to meet the previous consensus expectation (and our previous estimate) of £29m. We have made preliminary adjustments to our FY25 forecasts (details on the following page) and while there may be some follow through into FY26 we will review this with the results.
Advantage should quickly improve
Advantage has been in a consolidation phase amid industry discussions with the FCA on collections procedures and forbearance. It has taken a cautious approach to new lending and collections procedures, such that the collection rate of 87% compares with 92% in FY24. Management continues to expect the regulatory negotiations to conclude in H2, but the exact timing remains uncertain. When there is clarity, we expect a significant recovery in Advantage’s loan originations and collections, along with a positive impact on funding costs from lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Aspen continues to show good growth, providing a partial offset to the pressures on Advantage. As previously reported, H125 net receivables increased 13% versus FY24, with ‘excellent’ credit quality and a strong pipeline.
Valuation: Significant upside potential
S&U shares trade on P/E multiples of 9.5x in FY25e and 7.1x in FY26e and yield over 7%. The FY25e return on equity (ROE) of c 8.5% is well below the 10-year average of 15%. Taking the FY26e ROE of 11%, using a cost of equity (CoE) of 10% and a 2% growth rate in our RoE versus CoE model, the implied valuation is 2,169p (unchanged). Including expected dividends of 120p, this would represent a 45% 12month total return. Alternatively, the share price implies a long-term RoE of 8%.
Preliminary estimate changes
Given the proximity of the H125 results we have made only preliminary adjustment to our FY25 forecasts and have left that for FY26 unchanged. While the exact timing of regulatory clarity may have an impact on the expected FY26 recovery at Advantage, it is unclear at this stage. We are also mindful of the positive outlook for Aspen.
The key drag on Advantage’s current profitability is restricted collections activity and the associated increase in impairment provisions. S&U accounts for bad debts conservatively compared to the industry, as loans are transferred to IFRS 9 stage 3 provisions after just one month overdue, compared to the industry norm of three months. For now, our earnings reduction is taken as an increase in impairment provisions, although this is more likely to be partly reflected in revenues as more loans move into stage 31.
Income accrual for stage 3 loans is based on the loan value net of provisions rather than the gross value. In accounting terms this transfers some of what would have been income statement impairment to revenue reduction, with no change in earnings.
Exhibit 1: Provisional estimate revisions
FY25e |
FY26e |
||||||
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
||
Revenue (£m) |
123.3 |
123.3 |
0% |
130.3 |
130.3 |
0% |
|
EBITDA (£m) |
48.5 |
46.5 |
(4%) |
57.5 |
57.5 |
0% |
|
PBT (£m) |
29.0 |
27.0 |
(7%) |
36.2 |
36.2 |
0% |
|
EPS (p) |
179.3 |
166.9 |
(7%) |
223.4 |
223.4 |
0% |
|
DPS (p) |
120.0 |
120.0 |
0% |
125.0 |
125.0 |
4% |
|
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
Year end 31 January |
£m |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025e |
2026e |
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
87.9 |
102.7 |
115.4 |
123.3 |
130.3 |
Impairments |
(4.1) |
(13.9) |
(24.2) |
(33.5) |
(27.0) |
|
Other cost of sales |
(18.8) |
(23.7) |
(22.8) |
(21.8) |
(22.9) |
|
Administration expenses |
(13.7) |
(15.7) |
(19.3) |
(21.6) |
(22.8) |
|
EBITDA |
|
51.3 |
49.4 |
49.2 |
46.5 |
57.5 |
Depreciation |
|
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.4) |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
50.8 |
48.9 |
48.6 |
46.0 |
57.1 |
Investment revenues / finance expense |
(3.8) |
(7.5) |
(15.1) |
(19.0) |
(20.9) |
|
Profit before tax |
|
47.0 |
41.4 |
33.6 |
27.0 |
36.2 |
Tax |
(9.0) |
(7.7) |
(8.1) |
(6.8) |
(9.0) |
|
Profit after tax |
|
38.0 |
33.7 |
25.4 |
20.3 |
27.1 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
12.1 |
12.1 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
12.2 |
|
Diluted EPS (p) |
|
312.7 |
277.5 |
209.3 |
166.9 |
223.4 |
EPS - basic (p) |
|
312.8 |
277.5 |
209.3 |
166.9 |
223.4 |
Dividend per share (p) |
126.0 |
133.0 |
120.0 |
120.0 |
125.0 |
|
EBITDA margin (%) |
58.4% |
48.1% |
42.6% |
37.7% |
44.1% |
|
Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
57.8% |
47.6% |
42.1% |
37.3% |
43.8% |
|
Return on equity |
19.6% |
15.6% |
11.1% |
8.6% |
11.0% |
|
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Customer receivables |
|
181.6 |
219.3 |
242.0 |
256.7 |
276.3 |
Other non-current assets |
|
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
Total non-current assets |
|
184.2 |
222.0 |
244.5 |
259.1 |
278.5 |
Customer receivables |
|
141.3 |
201.4 |
221.0 |
234.4 |
252.3 |
Other current assets |
1.7 |
4.7 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
|
Total current assets |
|
143.0 |
206.1 |
222.4 |
234.5 |
253.1 |
Total assets |
|
327.2 |
428.2 |
466.8 |
493.5 |
531.6 |
Borrowings |
|
(2.6) |
0.0 |
(0.9) |
(0.9) |
(0.9) |
Other current liabilities |
(6.2) |
(6.9) |
(7.6) |
(7.8) |
(8.1) |
|
Total current liabilities |
|
(8.8) |
(6.9) |
(8.5) |
(8.7) |
(9.0) |
Borrowings |
|
(111.0) |
(195.5) |
(223.5) |
(244.3) |
(269.5) |
Preference shares |
|
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
Other non-current liabilities |
|
17.3 |
13.4 |
16.7 |
17.1 |
17.8 |
Total non current liabilities |
(111.7) |
(196.4) |
(224.2) |
(245.0) |
(270.2) |
|
Net assets |
|
206.7 |
224.9 |
234.2 |
239.9 |
252.4 |
NAV per share (p) |
1,702 |
1,852 |
1,928 |
1,975 |
2,078 |
|
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
(2.1) |
(62.8) |
(15.5) |
(7.3) |
(9.6) |
Net cash from investing activities |
(0.3) |
(0.7) |
(0.2) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
|
Dividends paid |
(12.3) |
(15.5) |
(16.2) |
(14.6) |
(14.6) |
|
Other financing (excluding change in borrowing) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Net cash flow |
|
(14.6) |
(79.0) |
(31.9) |
(22.2) |
(24.5) |
Opening net (debt)/cash |
|
(99.3) |
(114.0) |
(193.0) |
(224.8) |
(247.0) |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
(114.0) |
(193.0) |
(224.8) |
(247.0) |
(271.6) |
Source: S&U historical data, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Investment Companies
Molten Ventures has already surpassed its £100m realisation target for FY25 (ending March 2025) with exits from Perkbox, Endomag, Graphcore and M-Files, which in aggregate represent £124m in exit proceeds. Consequently, Molten launched a £10m buyback programme in July 2024. All these transactions were agreed at or slightly above the previous carrying values. Molten’s H125 results will likely benefit from Revolut’s recent secondary sale, which values the fintech at US$45bn compared with US$33bn during the previous funding round in July 2021. Finally, several of Molten’s core holdings raised capital this year, providing additional validation points for Molten’s H125 carrying values.