Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP19.60
▲ 20.00 (1.03%)
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GBP239m
Research: Financials
S&U’s H1 trading statement revealed similar trends to those in Q1. Advantage Finance remains in a consolidation phase amid industry discussions with the FCA on collections procedures and forbearance. The collection rate slipped slightly from 88% in Q1 to 87% for the half year. In contrast, Aspen Bridging continues to grow healthily with receivables up 13% since year-end, ‘excellent’ credit quality and a strong pipeline. Significantly, S&U describes the negotiations with the FCA as ‘nearing their conclusion’, which suggests there is potential for recovery at Advantage in H2. The latest 25bp base rate cut will also feed into H2 profitability as all debt is variable and unhedged. We maintain our estimates, which exclude any potential cost of redress, with more detail on the outlook likely to be disclosed at the half-year results on 8 October.
Written by
S&U |
Anticipating regulatory clarity in H2 |
H1 trading update |
Financial services |
12 August 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
S&U is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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S&U’s H1 trading statement revealed similar trends to those in Q1. Advantage Finance remains in a consolidation phase amid industry discussions with the FCA on collections procedures and forbearance. The collection rate slipped slightly from 88% in Q1 to 87% for the half year. In contrast, Aspen Bridging continues to grow healthily with receivables up 13% since year-end, ‘excellent’ credit quality and a strong pipeline. Significantly, S&U describes the negotiations with the FCA as ‘nearing their conclusion’, which suggests there is potential for recovery at Advantage in H2. The latest 25bp base rate cut will also feed into H2 profitability as all debt is variable and unhedged. We maintain our estimates, which exclude any potential cost of redress, with more detail on the outlook likely to be disclosed at the half-year results on 8 October.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* (£m) |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
01/23 |
102.7 |
41.4 |
278 |
133 |
6.8 |
7.1 |
01/24 |
115.4 |
33.6 |
209 |
120 |
9.0 |
6.4 |
01/25e |
123.3 |
29.0 |
179 |
120 |
10.5 |
6.4 |
01/26e |
130.3 |
36.2 |
223 |
125 |
8.4 |
6.6 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
The deterioration in collection rate at Advantage is unsurprising in light of the continuing discussions with the FCA and a generally weaker used car finance market. Even though new advances were down 10% y-o-y in H1, the stock of net receivables rose 4% y-o-y and has only fallen 2% since the financial year-end. Once regulatory clarity is established, expected by management in H2, we should see a recovery in loan originations and collections. Just as the decline in collection rates has accelerated recognition of new loss provisions under IFRS9, we expect a significant drop in provisioning rates if collections recover to more normal levels in H2. S&U has also been repricing the motor business to help offset the impact of the historic rise in funding costs and changes in the regulatory environment. Combining these factors with the recent 25bp base rate cut, we expect a good recovery in profitability at Advantage in H2.
Aspen continues to capitalise on its growing reputation and relationships with brokers in the property lending market. Receivables grew 13% since the year end and are up 43% y-o-y to £149m. Aspen still remains a small player in the overall market, which gives it plenty of room to grow. UK housing market indicators have already been improving in H1 and are likely to remain supportive after the recent base rate cut.
Overall, we maintain our estimates. Some continuing weakness at Advantage looks to be outweighed by good momentum in Aspen, with the likelihood of a clearer regulatory environment in H2. We note there is the potential for redress costs across the industry on conclusion of discussions with the FCA. To the extent that there are any costs of redress, these would probably be one-off and would pave the way for the Advantage business to move back to growth.
The shares currently trade on 10.5x and 8.4x our FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts respectively with an attractive prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
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Research: TMT
Team Internet’s H1 earnings showed resilience despite continued headwinds in online marketing. Going into the typically seasonally stronger H2, we expect the company’s initiatives in product innovation, vertical integration and international to increasingly influence growth and margin expansion. At 8.2x FY24 earnings, Team Internet continues to trade at a significant discount to peers on our unchanged earnings estimates. We believe this rating remains attractive given the company’s track record, prospects and cash generation.