The Quarto Group
The Quarto Group |
Strong Q4 delivers FY15 ahead of forecasts |
Pre-close update |
Media |
28 January 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
The Quarto Group, Inc. is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Quarto’s profits are H2 weighted and, in FY15, Q4 proved a particularly strong trading period. At end Q315, the group was on track to meet FY15 expectations; at the year-end update, the indication is that results will be ahead of forecasts, allowing a rise in dividend. Net debt of $59.7m was $21.7m lower than the 2011 peak, reflecting good cash conversion. The share price performed well over H215 (helped by the normalisation of the share register), but has drifted off with the market more recently. The valuation remains at a substantial discount to other smaller international publishers, which trade on 9.4x CY15 P/E and 5.0x EV/EBITDA.
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield |
12/13 |
176.3 |
9.6 |
37.7 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
3.8 |
12/14 |
172.6 |
12.1 |
44.8 |
8.3 |
6.6 |
4.0 |
12/15e |
177.0 |
13.3 |
47.6 |
8.3 |
6.2 |
4.0 |
12/16e |
184.3 |
14.6 |
51.7 |
8.3 |
5.8 |
4.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Dividend declared in sterling.
Colo(u)ring in the US
Quarto covers a wide range of markets and imprints and, as with any portfolio, some elements will outperform others. The brief trading statement describes early successes from the initiative to focus its sales and marketing efforts, including the benefit from the sudden fashion for adult colouring books – a trend that the group’s North American publishing imprints picked up at an early stage – which has clearly aided the FY15 outperformance. Ivy Press, bought in Q115 for £1.3m plus £0.2m debt, is also cited as a strong contributor, ahead of planned progress. This successful purchase and integration provides comfort that a sensible acquisition strategy, alongside that for building on organic opportunities, is a practical approach even while the balance sheet is being rebuilt. We will adjust our FY16 numbers with the prelims on 17 March and publish our FY17 initial thoughts.
Climbing off the plateau
As the group enters its 40th year of trading, the corporate level distractions have retreated. Despite the heavy Q4 weighting of profits, Quarto has a lengthening record of delivering at least to expectations, which belies market concerns regarding visibility. The notable improvement in profitability and significant reduction in net debt in recent years has been achieved without compromise on investing in pre-publication costs on new titles, which will populate the backlist in future years.
Valuation: Remains at a marked discount
November’s placing (30.9% of the stock, from activist shareholders) substantially increased the free float and removed one of the barriers to re-rating. The valuation remains at a substantial discount to other small international publishers and does not yet reflect the improved commercial prospects, which hail from management actions rather than market improvement.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
Year end 31 December |
|
US$’000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015e |
2016e |
Accounting basis |
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
176,318 |
172,644 |
177,000 |
184,250 |
Cost of sales |
(111,807) |
(107,637) |
(109,740) |
(114,235) |
||
Gross profit |
|
|
64,511 |
65,007 |
67,260 |
70,015 |
EBITDA |
|
|
33,317 |
34,832 |
36,100 |
37,544 |
Operating profit (before GW and except) |
|
31,943 |
33,726 |
34,900 |
36,294 |
|
Amortisation of intangibles |
|
|
(434) |
(503) |
(680) |
(500) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(3,405) |
566 |
(500) |
0 |
Amortisation of pre-production costs |
|
|
(17,899) |
(18,333) |
(18,500) |
(18,750) |
Operating profit |
|
|
10,205 |
15,456 |
15,220 |
17,044 |
Net interest |
|
|
(4,443) |
(3,257) |
(3,100) |
(2,944) |
Profit before tax (norm) |
|
|
9,601 |
12,136 |
13,300 |
14,600 |
Profit before tax IFRS |
|
|
5,762 |
12,199 |
12,120 |
14,100 |
Tax |
|
|
(1,416) |
(2,980) |
(3,658) |
(4,150) |
Adjustment to tax for normalised earnings |
|
|
(1,013) |
(16) |
0 |
0 |
Minority charge |
|
|
(412) |
(310) |
(270) |
(270) |
Profit after tax (norm.) |
|
|
6,760 |
8,830 |
9,372 |
10,180 |
Profit after tax (FRS3) |
|
|
3,934 |
8,909 |
8,192 |
9,680 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average number of shares outstanding (m) |
|
|
19.7 |
19.7 |
19.7 |
19.7 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
37.7 |
44.8 |
47.6 |
51.7 |
EPS - IFRS (c) |
|
|
20.0 |
45.2 |
41.6 |
49.1 |
Dividend per share (p) |
7.9 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBITDA margin (%) |
|
|
19% |
20% |
20% |
20% |
Operating margin (before GW and except) (%) |
|
18% |
20% |
20% |
20% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed assets |
|
|
104,557 |
102,416 |
105,595 |
105,845 |
Intangible assets |
|
|
42,358 |
42,025 |
42,095 |
42,345 |
Tangible assets |
|
|
5,978 |
2,857 |
4,500 |
4,500 |
Investment in associates |
|
|
56,221 |
57,534 |
59,000 |
59,000 |
Current assets |
|
|
99,103 |
101,073 |
96,977 |
99,328 |
Intangible assets: pre-publication costs |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Stocks |
|
|
19,181 |
23,347 |
21,542 |
22,201 |
Debtors |
|
|
56,043 |
54,616 |
55,434 |
57,128 |
Cash |
|
|
23,879 |
23,110 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
Current liabilities |
|
|
(70,485) |
(144,919) |
(74,663) |
(76,733) |
Creditors |
|
|
(53,882) |
(55,769) |
(57,723) |
(60,088) |
Short-term borrowings |
|
|
(16,603) |
(89,150) |
(16,940) |
(16,644) |
Long-term liabilities |
|
|
(83,229) |
(6,875) |
(68,100) |
(61,100) |
Long-term borrowings |
|
|
(78,291) |
0 |
(63,000) |
(56,000) |
Other long-term liabilities |
|
|
(4,938) |
(6,875) |
(5,100) |
(5,100) |
Net assets |
|
|
49,946 |
51,695 |
59,809 |
67,341 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating cash flow |
|
|
47,914 |
45,340 |
49,370 |
50,150 |
Net interest |
|
|
(4,701) |
(3,482) |
(3,268) |
(3,112) |
Tax |
|
|
(2,087) |
(759) |
(3,150) |
(3,781) |
Capex |
|
|
(28,805) |
(33,018) |
(33,000) |
(33,000) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
1,057 |
(2,008) |
(1,236) |
(618) |
Financing |
|
|
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Dividends |
|
|
(2,427) |
(2,567) |
(2,610) |
(2,332) |
Other |
|
|
(382) |
2,189 |
(6) |
(12) |
Net cash flow |
|
|
10,583 |
5,695 |
6,100 |
7,295 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
80,978 |
71,015 |
66,040 |
59,940 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Loans acquired with acquisitions |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Translation differences |
|
|
(620) |
(720) |
0 |
0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
71,015 |
66,040 |
59,940 |
52,644 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: End December 2015 net debt has now been reported at $59.7m.
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Disclaimer
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