Ultra has issued a reassuring post-close trading statement. The company has delivered continued order growth and demonstrated strong cash conversion. The search for a new CEO continues. While the company has identified future areas for investment to deliver long-term growth, Ultra will deliver modest progress in FY18 as it continues to leverage its strong market positions. The statement should help allay investor concerns over profitability that has been weighing on the shares.
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Ultra Electronics |
Sustainable operating momentum |
Trading update |
Aerospace & defence |
11 January 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Ultra Electronics is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Ultra has issued a reassuring post-close trading statement. The company has delivered continued order growth and demonstrated strong cash conversion. The search for a new CEO continues. While the company has identified future areas for investment to deliver long-term growth, Ultra will deliver modest progress in FY18 as it continues to leverage its strong market positions. The statement should help allay investor concerns over profitability that has been weighing on the shares.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
726.3 |
112.4 |
123.9 |
46.1 |
10.1 |
3.7 |
12/16 |
785.8 |
120.1 |
134.6 |
47.8 |
9.3 |
3.8 |
12/17e |
769.5 |
109.5 |
116.1 |
49.6 |
10.7 |
4.0 |
12/18e |
786.3 |
116.0 |
116.4 |
52.0 |
10.7 |
4.2 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
FY17 revenue is expected to be over £770m with operating profit just over £120m, both slightly ahead of our current estimate. Expected cash conversion of over 90% is comfortably higher than the c 80% indicated in the November statement.
Looking forward, Ultra has completed the budget process and has identified modest progress in underlying revenue and operating profit after key investment in R&D and capex. Visibility is underpinned by a healthy order book, demonstrating the confidence of Ultra’s customers. Order intake was £900m in FY17 and FY18 order cover currently stands at c 62%, up from c 56% equivalent a year ago. FY18 will be moderately H2-biased (H1 48%: H2 52%) and cash conversion should stay within the 80% to 85% guidance range. The company will provide more detail with the publication of its FY17 figures on 5 March.
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Disclaimer
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Disclaimer
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Research: Industrials
MMH’s pre-close statement indicates that the company continued its strong performance in 2017, despite challenging market conditions that are persisting into 2018. FY17 results are expected to be ahead of previously upgraded pre- and post-tax expectations, and we have lifted our PBT estimate 2% to £28.8m. We have reduced our FY18 PBT estimate by £1m to reflect slight additional margin pressures. The disposal of the Leasing business has strengthened the balance sheet and leaves the company well placed to implement its growth strategy.