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Research: TMT
With Kape’s transition to a consumer cybersecurity business essentially complete, investors can focus on the trends in its core business. The interim results highlighted big improvements in both margins and visibility. A doubling of subscribers helped drive a 178% y-o-y rise in underlying EBITDA. We leave our estimates unchanged but with Intego adding $3m in subscription revenue in H2, the mix and margins should improve further. Stripping out $52m of cash, Kape trades at 19x FY19e EPS.
Written by
Kape Technologies |
Strong H1 performance |
Interim results |
Software & comp services |
24 September 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Kape Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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With Kape’s transition to a consumer cybersecurity business essentially complete, investors can focus on the trends in its core business. The interim results highlighted big improvements in both margins and visibility. A doubling of subscribers helped drive a 178% y-o-y rise in underlying EBITDA. We leave our estimates unchanged but with Intego adding $3m in subscription revenue in H2, the mix and margins should improve further. Stripping out $52m of cash, Kape trades at 19x FY19e EPS.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
EBITDA* (US$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
EV/EBITDA |
P/E |
12/16 |
56.5 |
6.4 |
4.8 |
2.9 |
30.0 |
59.5 |
12/17 |
66.4 |
8.3 |
7.5 |
4.9 |
23.3 |
35.6 |
12/18e |
59.5 |
10.2 |
8.7 |
5.2 |
18.8 |
32.9 |
12/19e |
69.7 |
13.7 |
11.8 |
7.0 |
14.1 |
24.6 |
Note: *EBITDA, PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. EPS is diluted
Improving trends in App distribution…
Following the disposal of Media and acquisition of Intego in July, Kape is now 100% focused on consumer cybersecurity. Headline figures for the core App distribution business were disclosed in July’s trading statement (revenues up 14% y-o-y) but the interims showcased the underlying trends. Customer retention rose 5pp to 74%, the shift towards subscription substantially improved visibility and a 16pp y-o-y jump in segment margin (from 31.7% to 47.6%) drove a 71% rise in profit (see Exhibits 1 and 2). These trends primarily reflected the focus on subscription in Reimage plus the contribution of CyberGhost, which traded ahead of management expectations and was consolidated for a full period.
…look set to continue in H218e and beyond
Consolidating Intego in H218 ($3m of subscription revenue) should improve visibility still further. We forecast subscription sales reaching over 40% in H2. Re-iteration of “market expectations” guidance leads us to keep our FY18 estimates largely unchanged. Our FY18 revenue and segment profit margin estimates of $59.5m and 48.5% respectively should be readily achievable given the H1 performance. As the impact of the shift away from one time licensing sales annualises and revenue synergies with Intego grow, we forecast 12% top-line organic growth in FY19e.
Valuation: Improving growth, visibility and margins
The benefits of Kape’s strategic shift to consumer cybersecurity are becoming increasingly obvious. The sale of Media and the acquisition of Intego should lift both subscription revenue and margins still further in H2 and the business should return to strong organic growth in FY19e. In a fragmented market and with cash on the balance sheet, we see scope for Kape to make more value accretive deals that leverage its distribution network and enhance its strategic position. On our current forecasts and stripping out $52m cash, the shares trade at 19x FY19e EPS, a modest discount to Kape’s international B2C cybersecurity peers.
Improvements in underlying performance
Kape’s interims demonstrated improvements across a range of key performance indicators in its core App distribution segment (see Exhibit 1). The strategic decision to shift from one time licences to recurring subscriptions suppressed growth, but subscription customers offer both better visibility and higher margins. This effect is apparent in Kape’s H1 results. In particular, a strong performance from CyberGhost more than doubled the number of subscribers in just six months. This drove the mix of revenue ‘recognised over a period’ to 25.5% and segment margins to 47.6% (up 16ppt y-o-y). As a consequence, underlying adjusted EBITDA (ie stripping out the disposal of the web apps and licence business) rose 178% y-o-y to $4.3m (headline EBITDA rose 48%). Customer retention, a particularly key metric for long-term growth and margin performance, also improved (up 5pp to 74%).
Exhibit 1: App distribution key performance indicators
(US$m unless stated) |
H117 |
H217 |
FY17 |
H118 |
H218e |
FY18e |
Revenue |
||||||
Reported |
21.1 |
27.1 |
48.2 |
24.1 |
31.7 |
55.8 |
Headline growth (%) |
26.1 |
14.1 |
16.9 |
15.7 |
||
Visibility |
||||||
Subscribers (m) |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
|||
Revenue from existing users in future periods |
8.0 |
18.0 |
||||
Revenue "recognised over a period" |
1.9 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
6.1 |
13.0 |
19.1 |
Revenue "recognised over a period" (%) |
9.2 |
16.7 |
13.4 |
25.5 |
41.0 |
34.3 |
Profitability |
||||||
Segment profit |
6.7 |
10.5 |
17.2 |
11.5 |
15.6 |
27.0 |
Segment margins (%) |
31.7 |
38.7 |
35.7 |
47.6 |
49.2 |
48.5 |
Customer retention (%) |
69.0 |
69.0 |
74.0 |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
In H218e we expect visibility to improve further: consolidating Intego should lift subscription revenue to over 50% (see Exhibit 2). Backing out our estimate of the $3.0m contribution from Intego implies revenues rise c 6% y-o-y in H2 as the shift towards subscription and the first revenue synergies from Intego offsets the decline in one-time licence sales. Our 49% segment profit margin forecast looks relatively conservative given the performance in H1 and the expectation of higher revenues in H2. Our $10.2m FY18 EBITDA forecast implies a 19% margin in H2.
Into FY19e, revenue growth should accelerate as the impact of lower one-off licence sales reduces and the further revenue synergies with Intego are realised. We forecast 12% organic revenue growth in FY19e and a 19% EBITDA margin.
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Exhibit 2: Visibility improving - the rising % of revenues recognised ‘over a period’ |
|
|
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research |
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
31-December (US$000s) |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
Income statement |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
84,635 |
56,532 |
66,383 |
59,468 |
69,685 |
Cost of sales |
(58,111) |
(37,277) |
(42,366) |
(32,422) |
(35,086) |
||
Gross profit |
26,524 |
19,255 |
24,017 |
27,046 |
34,599 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
10,064 |
6,413 |
8,261 |
10,221 |
13,691 |
Operating profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
9,016 |
5,034 |
6,946 |
8,701 |
11,801 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(8,322) |
(8,505) |
(5,130) |
(700) |
(700) |
||
Exceptionals |
(11,089) |
(5,545) |
(899) |
0 |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(3,407) |
(716) |
(3,516) |
(500) |
(600) |
||
Reported operating profit |
(13,802) |
(9,732) |
(2,599) |
7,501 |
10,501 |
||
Net interest |
(855) |
(328) |
(255) |
(14) |
(35) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
(38) |
47 |
(40) |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
858 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit before tax (norm) |
|
|
8,123 |
4,753 |
7,509 |
8,687 |
11,766 |
Profit before tax (reported) |
|
|
(14,695) |
(10,013) |
(2,036) |
7,487 |
10,466 |
Reported tax |
(2,902) |
(665) |
(467) |
(973) |
(1,413) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
7,421 |
4,088 |
7,042 |
7,714 |
10,353 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(17,597) |
(10,678) |
(2,503) |
6,514 |
9,053 |
||
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(80) |
(80) |
||
Discontinued operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
7,421 |
4,088 |
7,042 |
7,634 |
10,273 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(17,597) |
(10,678) |
(2,503) |
6,434 |
8,973 |
||
Average number of shares outstanding (m) |
148 |
141 |
142 |
142 |
143 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
5.02 |
2.90 |
4.98 |
5.37 |
7.19 |
EPS - diluted normalised (c) |
|
|
5.02 |
2.90 |
4.85 |
5.23 |
7.01 |
EPS - basic reported (c) |
|
|
(11.91) |
(7.57) |
(1.77) |
4.53 |
6.28 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
4.93 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
19.0 |
(33.2) |
17.4 |
(10.4) |
17.2 |
||
Gross margin (%) |
31.3 |
34.1 |
36.2 |
45.1 |
49.7 |
||
Ebitda margin (%) |
11.9 |
11.3 |
12.4 |
17.2 |
19.6 |
||
Normalised operating margin |
10.7 |
8.9 |
10.5 |
14.6 |
16.9 |
||
Balance sheet |
|||||||
Fixed assets |
|
|
21,785 |
8,729 |
13,312 |
26,980 |
26,782 |
Intangible assets |
19,254 |
7,113 |
12,350 |
25,950 |
25,528 |
||
Tangible assets |
1,003 |
591 |
815 |
883 |
1,107 |
||
Investments & other |
1,528 |
1,025 |
147 |
147 |
147 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
87,616 |
80,014 |
82,430 |
65,548 |
76,714 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
65 |
65 |
65 |
||
Debtors |
16,280 |
7,950 |
11,071 |
8,146 |
8,362 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
71,336 |
72,064 |
69,502 |
52,024 |
60,109 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
1,792 |
5,312 |
8,178 |
||
Current liabilities |
|
|
(16,721) |
(7,339) |
(15,028) |
(14,000) |
(16,108) |
Creditors |
(15,316) |
(7,096) |
(10,094) |
(7,981) |
(8,331) |
||
Tax and social security |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(1,405) |
(243) |
(4,934) |
(6,019) |
(7,777) |
||
Long term liabilities |
|
|
(1,170) |
(851) |
(1,342) |
(1,342) |
(349) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(1,170) |
(851) |
(1,342) |
(1,342) |
(349) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
91,510 |
80,553 |
79,372 |
77,186 |
87,038 |
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
977 |
977 |
977 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
91,510 |
80,553 |
80,349 |
78,163 |
88,015 |
Cash flow |
|||||||
Op cash flow before WC and tax |
10,064 |
6,413 |
8,261 |
10,221 |
13,691 |
||
Working capital |
(2,197) |
613 |
(1,392) |
(754) |
(1,096) |
||
Exceptional & other |
(1,297) |
(823) |
(624) |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
(1,826) |
(904) |
(109) |
(973) |
(1,413) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
4,744 |
5,299 |
6,136 |
8,494 |
11,181 |
Capex |
(1,813) |
(1,678) |
(2,020) |
(2,088) |
(2,192) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(1,402) |
(1,439) |
(5,337) |
(16,870) |
(870) |
||
Net interest |
(660) |
(281) |
156 |
(14) |
(35) |
||
Equity financing |
(5,131) |
(995) |
(1,477) |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(7,000) |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net cash flow |
(4,262) |
906 |
(2,542) |
(17,478) |
8,084 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(76,041) |
(71,336) |
(72,064) |
(69,502) |
(52,024) |
FX |
(443) |
(178) |
(20) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(71,336) |
(72,064) |
(69,502) |
(52,024) |
(60,109) |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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