Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP1.08
▲ 4.00 (3.86%)
Market capitalisation
GBP309m
Research: TMT
Boku’s H1 trading update confirms the company continues to see strong growth in total processed value (TPV) and revenues. Positive EBITDA for H118 supports our forecast for Boku to report its first full year of EBITDA profitability in FY18. The company anticipates meeting earnings expectations for FY18. We see the potential for revenue upside in FY18 to be reinvested in longer-term growth opportunities, providing support to the share price. We maintain our forecasts pending interims in September.
Boku |
Strong growth continues in H1 |
H118 trading update |
Software & comp services |
5 July 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Boku is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Boku’s H1 trading update confirms the company continues to see strong growth in total processed value (TPV) and revenues. Positive EBITDA for H118 supports our forecast for Boku to report its first full year of EBITDA profitability in FY18. The company anticipates meeting earnings expectations for FY18. We see the potential for revenue upside in FY18 to be reinvested in longer-term growth opportunities, providing support to the share price. We maintain our forecasts pending interims in September.
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
EV/EBITDA |
12/17 |
24.4 |
(2.3) |
(0.03) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
32.7 |
4.9 |
0.01 |
0.0 |
171.0 |
63.7 |
12/19e |
40.1 |
11.6 |
0.03 |
0.0 |
46.9 |
26.7 |
12/20e |
47.8 |
18.5 |
0.06 |
0.0 |
26.3 |
16.7 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS (diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Transaction volumes drive strong revenue growth
Boku processed volumes worth $1.5bn in H118 (+153% y-o-y, +42% h-o-h) and expects to report revenues of $16.5-17.0m for H118 (vs $10.2m in H117 and $14.2m in H217). As we have previously noted, revenue growth lags TPV growth due to the changing mix of transaction types. Adjusted EBITDA was positive for H118, as was the case in H217. By the end of H118, monthly active users hit 10.3m, up from 4.7m at the end of H117 and 8.1m at the end of FY17. Cash at the end of H118 stood at $30m, and averaged $23.1m during June. This compares to our end FY18 forecast of $23.9m, and reported cash of $18.7m at the end of FY17.
On track to meet FY18 earnings expectations
We maintain our forecasts, but based on the H1 take rate (ie margin earned on TPV) we believe there is upside risk to our revenue forecasts for FY18. With earnings on track to meet expectations for FY18, we see scope for the company to reinvest some of the revenue upside in future growth opportunities. Management noted that it was encouraged by the reaction to its mobile identity offerings and we expect to hear more about these opportunities, as well as the level of H1 profitability, when the company reports interims in September.
Valuation: Reflects strong growth potential
Near-term EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples are at a premium to peers, but in our view are justified by the company’s strong sustainable earnings growth potential. Data point to evidence that Boku is meeting or beating its current plan include updates on new major merchant wins, existing merchant roll-outs to new carriers and/or new geographies, TPV growth, and tracking the performance of current key merchants. In the longer term, we expect to see new products developed to extend the services that can be offered by merchants and MNOs, and could see bolt-on acquisitions to acquire technology or customer relationships.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
$'m |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
18.3 |
19.2 |
17.2 |
24.4 |
32.7 |
40.1 |
47.8 |
Cost of Sales |
(4.1) |
(4.0) |
(3.2) |
(2.3) |
(2.4) |
(2.7) |
(3.1) |
||
Gross Profit |
14.2 |
15.2 |
14.0 |
22.1 |
30.3 |
37.4 |
44.7 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(9.6) |
(11.4) |
(12.3) |
(2.3) |
4.9 |
11.6 |
18.5 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(9.8) |
(12.4) |
(13.8) |
(4.0) |
3.5 |
10.4 |
18.1 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(0.8) |
(1.9) |
(1.7) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
||
Exceptionals |
(2.1) |
(0.1) |
(2.4) |
(2.2) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(1.7) |
(1.8) |
(2.1) |
(0.9) |
(1.2) |
(1.2) |
(1.2) |
||
Reported operating profit |
(14.4) |
(16.2) |
(19.9) |
(8.4) |
1.0 |
7.9 |
15.6 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.6) |
(0.4) |
(1.2) |
(2.4) |
(0.8) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(17.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(10.4) |
(12.8) |
(15.0) |
(6.4) |
2.7 |
9.8 |
17.5 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(15.0) |
(16.6) |
(21.1) |
(28.0) |
0.2 |
7.4 |
15.0 |
Reported tax |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
0.5 |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.4) |
(1.5) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(7.8) |
(9.6) |
(11.2) |
(4.8) |
2.1 |
7.8 |
13.8 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(15.4) |
(17.0) |
(20.6) |
(28.1) |
0.2 |
7.0 |
13.5 |
||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(7.8) |
(9.6) |
(11.2) |
(4.8) |
2.1 |
7.8 |
13.8 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(15.4) |
(17.0) |
(20.6) |
(28.1) |
0.2 |
7.0 |
13.5 |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
21.3 |
27.4 |
140.1 |
150.3 |
213.6 |
213.6 |
213.6 |
||
EPS - basic normalised ($) |
|
|
(0.36) |
(0.35) |
(0.08) |
(0.03) |
0.01 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
EPS - diluted normalised ($) |
|
|
(0.36) |
(0.35) |
(0.08) |
(0.03) |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.06 |
EPS - basic reported ($) |
|
|
(0.72) |
(0.62) |
(0.15) |
(0.19) |
0.00 |
0.03 |
0.06 |
Dividend ($) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
N/A |
4.7 |
(10.4) |
42.0 |
33.8 |
22.7 |
19.4 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
77.6 |
79.1 |
81.4 |
90.7 |
92.8 |
93.3 |
93.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
(52.5) |
(59.2) |
(71.4) |
(9.5) |
14.9 |
29.0 |
38.8 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
(53.2) |
(64.4) |
(80.0) |
(16.5) |
10.6 |
25.9 |
37.7 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
32.7 |
30.8 |
26.8 |
26.9 |
25.1 |
23.3 |
21.3 |
Intangible Assets |
32.5 |
30.1 |
25.7 |
25.8 |
23.6 |
21.6 |
20.4 |
||
Tangible Assets |
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
72.5 |
53.0 |
48.9 |
79.3 |
92.7 |
116.5 |
144.4 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
59.7 |
43.3 |
37.1 |
59.1 |
67.4 |
80.6 |
91.4 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
12.0 |
9.0 |
11.3 |
18.7 |
23.9 |
34.5 |
51.6 |
||
Other |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(69.6) |
(65.5) |
(61.0) |
(77.5) |
(87.8) |
(101.5) |
(112.7) |
Creditors |
(64.6) |
(60.4) |
(54.9) |
(75.0) |
(85.3) |
(99.0) |
(110.2) |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
(5.0) |
(5.1) |
(6.1) |
(2.5) |
(2.5) |
(2.5) |
(2.5) |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
0.0 |
(0.3) |
(15.2) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(15.1) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
35.5 |
18.0 |
(0.4) |
28.6 |
30.0 |
38.2 |
52.9 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
35.5 |
18.0 |
(0.4) |
28.6 |
30.0 |
38.2 |
52.9 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
(9.6) |
(11.4) |
(12.3) |
(2.3) |
4.9 |
11.6 |
18.5 |
||
Working capital |
9.3 |
11.6 |
(3.4) |
1.0 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(1.6) |
1.1 |
4.2 |
(5.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
(0.7) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(1.9) |
1.3 |
(11.5) |
(6.8) |
6.5 |
11.8 |
18.2 |
Capex |
(1.1) |
(3.6) |
(1.5) |
(0.3) |
(0.5) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
5.9 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.9) |
(0.8) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
||
Equity financing |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
19.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.6 |
(0.0) |
0.1 |
(1.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
3.3 |
(2.2) |
(13.1) |
10.6 |
5.2 |
10.6 |
17.0 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(4.9) |
(7.0) |
(3.6) |
9.9 |
(16.2) |
(21.4) |
(32.0) |
FX |
(1.2) |
(0.8) |
(0.4) |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
(0.4) |
(0.0) |
15.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7.0) |
(3.6) |
9.9 |
(16.2) |
(21.4) |
(32.0) |
(49.0) |
Source: Boku, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Real Estate
Recent significant fund-raising and portfolio expansion by Noratis confirm the company’s ambition to benefit from favourable macro factors and the clear opportunity to develop real estate in non-core German cities. This follows a “very successful” 2017, with sales up by over 50% and adjusted PBT more than doubled, driven by the disposals of newly-enhanced (optimised) property blocks. Reinvestment was no less effective; the continued ability to buy at attractive yields led to a 25% increase in the asset base (c €100m). Positive 2018 guidance increases the prospect of a rise in an already generous dividend (7.3% yield 2018e).