Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR50.05
▲ 1.63 (3.37%)
Market capitalisation
EUR6,916m
Research: Industrials
Metlen Energy & Metals achieved a record H1 EBITDA of €474m in 2024 (vs €437m in H123), while also increasing its operating margin by 169bp to 19.1% (17.4% at H123). Revenue declined marginally (-1% to €2,482m) but Metlen’s diversified and synergistic business model across the energy and metals sectors is helping to grow its margins and diversity of earnings (towards RES/Utility/Metals and away from volatile natural gas supply). Both net profit after minorities and earnings per share increased by c 5% y-o-y to €282m and €2.04, respectively. Net debt/EBITDA is a comfortable 1.76x and Metlen looks well placed for a potential upgrade to investment grade status by the rating agencies later this year, achieving its goal.
Metlen Energy & Metals |
Strengthening operating margin in H1 |
H124 results |
Industrials |
29 July 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
Metlen Energy & Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Metlen Energy & Metals achieved a record H1 EBITDA of €474m in 2024 (vs €437m in H123), while also increasing its operating margin by 169bp to 19.1% (17.4% at H123). Revenue declined marginally (-1% to €2,482m) but Metlen’s diversified and synergistic business model across the energy and metals sectors is helping to grow its margins and diversity of earnings (towards RES/Utility/Metals and away from volatile natural gas supply). Both net profit after minorities and earnings per share increased by c 5% y-o-y to €282m and €2.04, respectively. Net debt/EBITDA is a comfortable 1.76x and Metlen looks well placed for a potential upgrade to investment grade status by the rating agencies later this year, achieving its goal.
Year end |
EBITDA |
Net income |
EPS |
DPS* |
P/E** |
Yield** |
12/24 |
823 |
466 |
3.42 |
1.20 |
4.6 |
7.6 |
12/23 |
1,013 |
605 |
4.46 |
1.58 |
8.3 |
4.3 |
12/24e |
1,107 |
666 |
4.81 |
1.69 |
7.5 |
4.7 |
12/25e |
1,171 |
709 |
5.12 |
1.80 |
7.1 |
5.0 |
Note: *Final distributed dividend per share. **FY22 and FY23 at the year-end price; FY24e and FY25e at last close price.
Metlen’s renewable energy source (RES) business continues to grow, with H1 EBITDA up by 61% y-o-y, which accounts for c 30% of the company’s total EBITDA in H1. This was helped by the effective execution of Metlen’s asset rotation model, with the sale of 531MW of photovoltaic projects and this capital recycled to fund further growth of its RES business. Metlen’s market share in Greece’s domestic power generation has grown year-on-year, reaching 16.7% at H124, from 12.8% H123. The company is aiming to reach 20% by the end of 2024 and has ambitions to reach 30% in the future. Metlen’s total generation capacity increased by 73% yoy in H124, reaching 4.2TWhs, with 81% of this increase arising from thermal plants (primarily due to operation of its new combined-cycle gas turbine unit) and 14% coming from RES.
Metlen’s metals business also achieved a record H1 EBITDA (up by 4% y-oy to €142m), despite a revenue decline of 14% y-oy. Aluminium prices were relatively flat (H124 average three-month LME price of $2,402/t vs H123’s price of $2,362/t). Profitability was supported by Metlen’s fully integrated business model, as smelting production costs fell due to lower power prices and alumina profitability was helped by stronger alumina prices (up c 14% y-o‑y), and by Metlen continuing to grow its integrated bauxite supply.
Management stated that ‘confidence has grown’ in full-year results being ‘easily within the range’ of the targets set at the AGM in June (EBITDA of €1.0–1.2bn and net profit of €600–700m). Our forecasts and valuation for Metlen remain unchanged from our previous note. Metlen’s earnings are typically weighted towards the second half of the year (the Q3 summer months boost power demand). Over the last four years, the H1/H2 EBITDA split has averaged 42%/58% for the full year. Therefore, assuming a similar weighting for H224, Metlen remains on track to achieve our FY24e EBITDA forecast of €1,107m. We value Metlen at €49 per share, with a DCF of €47 per share and a peer multiple valuation of €51 per share. Metlen still trades on a relatively low, in comparison to peers, FY25e P/E of 7.1x.
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Research: Financials
Record reported steady progress in its Q125 trading update. Assets under management (AUM) grew $0.5bn in the quarter to $102.7bn, driven by market and other movements of +$1bn offset by a modest net $0.5bn outflow. The AUM progression is in line with our end-FY25 estimate of $104.7bn. Performance fees surprised positively at £1.6m in the quarter, not much below our £2m estimate for the full year. We are not changing our estimates at this stage.