Northern Data Group — Strategic interest confirmed with H125 figures

Northern Data Group (XETRA: NB2)

Last close As at 11/08/2025

EUR19.05

−4.17 (−17.96%)

Market capitalisation

EUR1,491m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

Northern Data Group — Strategic interest confirmed with H125 figures

Along with the release of H125 figures, Northern Data Group has provided an update on its strategic evolution, with news of third-party interest in acquiring the group, as well as an update on the sale of Peak Mining.

Written by

Dan Ridsdale

Head of Technology

Tech hardware and equipment

H125 results

12 August 2025

Price €19.05
Market cap €1,491m

Net cash/(debt) June 2025

€(546.0)m

Shares in issue

64.2m
Free float 48.9%
Code NB2
Primary exchange FSE
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 1.3 (3.0) 20.6
52-week high/low €50.8 €19.2

Business description

Northern Data Group is a German-listed company, operating highly energy-efficient data centres across Europe and the US.

Next events

Q325 results

October 2025

Analysts

Dan Ridsdale
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Neil Steer
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Northern Data Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: EBITDA, PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Year end Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) PBT (€m) EPS (€) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)
12/23 77.5 (12.3) (137.6) (4.75) N/A N/A
12/24 200.3 95.1 (85.7) (1.49) 21.4 N/A
12/25e 275.0 101.3 (158.8) (2.47) 20.1 N/A
12/26e 495.0 239.0 (50.5) (0.79) 8.5 N/A

Operating performance over H125

The 30 April trading update highlighted infrastructure upgrades and associated operational effects that resulted in substantial forecast revisions. Disruption, driven by these changes, is highlighted by considerably contrasting performance metrics in Q125 and Q125. For the first half overall, revenues were up 72% y-o-y to €94.3m. Growth in Q1 was up 170% y-o-y, with revenues of €68.6m, while Q2 revenues were down 13% y-o-y to €25.7m.

Strategic interest from Rumble

On 28 May, Northern Data stated that it had expressions of interest ‘from US-listed companies’. Therefore, the confirmed interest from Rumble on 10 August in pursuing a potential exchange of shares (exchange offer) to merge with Northern Data is no surprise. The two companies share a common strategic investor in the form of Tether, which owns 53% of Northern Data’s shares and 34% of Rumble’s shares (after its $775m investment in Rumble in December 2024). However, Tether does not have board representation at either company.

Presently, there is no formal offer, only an expression of interest. Therefore, while Tether has stated its own support for the transaction, progression to a formal deal is not certain. The original press release from Northern Data at the end of May seemingly indicated interest from more than one party, meaning news of the interest from Rumble could, potentially, drive others to declare interest pubically.

Valuation: Cash flow forecasts updated

The guidance from April has been retained, which implies that Taiga Cloud’s performance should dramatically improve over H225. Northern Data’s press release states that the improved customer traction in the Cloud business has already been seen in Q3. As evidence of progress in this regard, the company has also announced a new partnership with Core42, a provider of AI sovereign cloud-managed services. Through the partnership, Core42 will be using Northern Data’s Taiga Cloud infrastructure for its AI-managed cloud services. We make no changes to revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts but, in light of reduced capex spending, we have updated our cash flow and balance sheet forecasts.

H125 results

Peak Mining showed Q1 year-on-year revenue growth of 30% to €28.4m, and Q2 growth of 78% y-o-y to €25.1m. Peak Mining’s overall H125 growth was, therefore, impressive at 49%.

Taiga Cloud achieved Q125 revenues of €40.0m, being a fivefold increase year-on-year. This was, however, below the run-rate seen over the Q324 and Q424 of €47m and €55m, respectively. To improve the long-term revenue generating capacity of the Taiga Cloud GPU estate, a plan to upgrade the infrastructure (to a software defined, on-demand model) began in Q225. Disruption, as capacity was taken offline, was substantial with Taiga Cloud’s revenues falling to just €0.5m in Q2. We understand that management had expected Q2 utilisation of just 5% but, in reality, utilisation appears to have been well below that level.

H125 adjusted EBITDA of €21.3m is an increase of 101% from the H124 figure of €10.6m. Adjusted EBIT losses were €115.1m, compared to losses in H124 of €18.6m. This was due mainly to the rise in deprecation and amortisation charges after the substantial capex and investments last year.

Interest from Rumble comes at a discount

Based on the closing share prices of the two companies last Friday, the indicated terms of the merger (2.319 Rumble shares in exchange for each Northern Data share) valued the Northern Data shares at a 32% discount to their previous close price. Based upon our current forecasts for FY25, the offer would represent an acquisition (merger) valuation of EV/sales of 7.4x and an EV/adjusted EBITDA of 20.0x.

This is, however, before any adjustments are made for the potential disposal of Peak Mining. We estimate that the exchange offer ratio (2.319:1) would likely be modified to reflect the proceeds from Peak Mining’s sale and the discount could reduce to c 20% from 32%.

Potential sale of Peak Mining

Northern Data has announced the execution of a non-binding, non-exclusive term sheet for the disposal of Peak Mining to Elektron Energy, a privately owned bitcoin mining business. Should the transaction go ahead, there could be proceeds of up to €235m in cash, consisting of an initial payment of €175m (expected H225) and a final payment upon completion. The final payment will be contingent on performance metrics and the successful transfer of certain operational assets.

While this is clearly good news and a deal has been agreed in principle, the price is very much lower than our expectations. At the end of 2024, Northern Data’s bitcoin capacity was at c eight exa hashes per second and commentary from management, at the time of the FY24 figures, suggested that market valuations were $30–90m per exa hash. Based on this data, we put expected proceeds at €400–500m.

Cash flow and balance sheet changes

Should the sale of Peak Mining go ahead, the proceeds will markedly reduce net debt, which stood at €546m (excluding finance leases) at the end of June. This was an increase from the 2024 year-end net debt of €476m (excluding finance leases) but a smaller increase than we had forecast, due to a much-reduced level of capex. Accordingly, and in the expectation that a more prudent capital investment regime will continue for the remainder of the year, we have made small revisions to our cash flow and balance sheet forecasts.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Northern Data Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Northern Data Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright 2025 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or sol icitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

More on Northern Data Group

View All

Latest from the TMT sector

View All TMT content

Research: TMT

VEON — Direct Digital drives earnings higher

VEON delivered a strong Q225, with revenue of $1,087m beating our estimate (3.4%) and underlying EBIT, (stripping out a $498m gain), of $322m, 13.2% ahead of our estimate. We have increased our adjusted EPS estimate by 3.4% to $5.33 in FY25 and 4.9% to $6.63 in FY26, and new reported EPS to $12.39 in FY25 and $6.77 in FY26. Progress towards the listing of Kyivstar has been rapid and, assuming all goes to plan, the deal may complete with the listing achieved during the second week of August. The digital business generated Q2 Direct Digital revenue of $180m, up 56.6% y-o-y, contributing 16.5% of group revenue. VEON estimates FY25 growth of 13–15% (vs 12–14% previously). Our DCF-based valuation generates a fair value of $65.7 (vs $60.1 previously).

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free