H125 results
Peak Mining showed Q1 year-on-year revenue growth of 30% to €28.4m, and Q2 growth
of 78% y-o-y to €25.1m. Peak Mining’s overall H125 growth was, therefore, impressive
at 49%.
Taiga Cloud achieved Q125 revenues of €40.0m, being a fivefold increase year-on-year.
This was, however, below the run-rate seen over the Q324 and Q424 of €47m and €55m,
respectively. To improve the long-term revenue generating capacity of the Taiga Cloud
GPU estate, a plan to upgrade the infrastructure (to a software defined, on-demand
model) began in Q225. Disruption, as capacity was taken offline, was substantial with
Taiga Cloud’s revenues falling to just €0.5m in Q2. We understand that management
had expected Q2 utilisation of just 5% but, in reality, utilisation appears to have
been well below that level.
H125 adjusted EBITDA of €21.3m is an increase of 101% from the H124 figure of €10.6m.
Adjusted EBIT losses were €115.1m, compared to losses in H124 of €18.6m. This was
due mainly to the rise in deprecation and amortisation charges after the substantial
capex and investments last year.
Interest from Rumble comes at a discount
Based on the closing share prices of the two companies last Friday, the indicated
terms of the merger (2.319 Rumble shares in exchange for each Northern Data share)
valued the Northern Data shares at a 32% discount to their previous close price. Based
upon our current forecasts for FY25, the offer would represent an acquisition (merger)
valuation of EV/sales of 7.4x and an EV/adjusted EBITDA of 20.0x.
This is, however, before any adjustments are made for the potential disposal of Peak
Mining. We estimate that the exchange offer ratio (2.319:1) would likely be modified
to reflect the proceeds from Peak Mining’s sale and the discount could reduce to c
20% from 32%.
Potential sale of Peak Mining
Northern Data has announced the execution of a non-binding, non-exclusive term sheet
for the disposal of Peak Mining to Elektron Energy, a privately owned bitcoin mining
business. Should the transaction go ahead, there could be proceeds of up to €235m
in cash, consisting of an initial payment of €175m (expected H225) and a final payment
upon completion. The final payment will be contingent on performance metrics and the
successful transfer of certain operational assets.
While this is clearly good news and a deal has been agreed in principle, the price
is very much lower than our expectations. At the end of 2024, Northern Data’s bitcoin
capacity was at c eight exa hashes per second and commentary from management, at the
time of the FY24 figures, suggested that market valuations were $30–90m per exa hash.
Based on this data, we put expected proceeds at €400–500m.
Cash flow and balance sheet changes
Should the sale of Peak Mining go ahead, the proceeds will markedly reduce net debt,
which stood at €546m (excluding finance leases) at the end of June. This was an increase
from the 2024 year-end net debt of €476m (excluding finance leases) but a smaller
increase than we had forecast, due to a much-reduced level of capex. Accordingly,
and in the expectation that a more prudent capital investment regime will continue
for the remainder of the year, we have made small revisions to our cash flow and balance
sheet forecasts.