Hostelworld Group — Some sunny day

Hostelworld Group — Some sunny day

Hostelworld is at pains to show its ‘Roadmap for Growth’ is well on track, despite the hiatus of COVID-19 (2020 net revenue down 81%). It has followed its return to net bookings growth in normal conditions of Q419 with multiple enhancements to its booking platform. Also, for the longer term, there is reiteration of the company’s aim to offer complementary experiential travel products, such as tours and experiences, with cross-selling opportunities (‘an extensive pipeline of potential targets’ had been identified by the eve of the pandemic). For now, the outlook is clouded by uncertainty about the lifting of COVID-19 travel restrictions in key markets, with varying infection rates and vaccination programmes. In the UK, the very success of a rollout may only reinforce border controls.

Richard Finch

Written by

Richard Finch

Analyst, Consumer

Hostelworld

Some sunny day

Travel & leisure

QuickView

6 April 2021

Price

76p

Market cap

£88m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

HSW

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

116.3m

Business description

Hostelworld operates the leading global online booking platform focused on the hostel market, capitalising on demand from its target millennial demographic for a social travel experience. Established in 1999, the company offers access to over 17,000 hostels with over 13 million guest reviews.

Bull

High brand awareness among customers and owners of hostels in the growing global market of experiential travel. Pre-COVID-19 20m website visits and over three million social media followers in 2019.

Material platform enhancement during the pandemic with unchanged long-term goal to extend the experiential travel offer beyond hostels.

Asset light, cash generative model with newly strengthened balance sheet.

Bear

Uncertainty about timing of lifting of COVID-19 travel restrictions, accentuated by differing conditions in individual markets.

Intense competition or change in search engine algorithms mitigated by strong market position.

Risk of loss of consumer trust in brand, although company actively invests in brand management.

Analysts

Richard Finch

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Hostelworld is at pains to show its ‘Roadmap for Growth’ is well on track, despite the hiatus of COVID-19 (2020 net revenue down 81%). It has followed its return to net bookings growth in normal conditions of Q419 with multiple enhancements to its booking platform. Also, for the longer term, there is reiteration of the company’s aim to offer complementary experiential travel products, such as tours and experiences, with cross-selling opportunities (‘an extensive pipeline of potential targets’ had been identified by the eve of the pandemic). For now, the outlook is clouded by uncertainty about the lifting of COVID-19 travel restrictions in key markets, with varying infection rates and vaccination programmes. In the UK, the very success of a rollout may only reinforce border controls.

Annus horribilis

As a result of COVID-19 global travel restrictions, 2020 saw Hostelworld’s trading metrics drastically down across the board. The impact of a 79% decline in net bookings (1.5m vs 6.8m) in 2019 was compounded by a 22% reduction in price (net average booking value), which largely reflected cancellations of higher-ticket bookings and inevitable discounting by hostels in the downturn. The overall cancellation rate trebled to a third of gross revenue. In mitigation the largest cost, marketing, was pared almost in line (down 72%) with sales volumes, while efficiencies and government subsidy schemes drove other opex down by a third. As a result, EBITDA moved from €20.5m to a loss of €17.3m.

Taking the positives

Alongside the progress with the strategic plan (management is ‘very pleased’), Hostelworld looks to have handled the COVID-19 pandemic effectively. It can point to a 2020 outcome in line with its October guidance, a much lower cost base and an encouraging, if understandably modest, rebound in Q3 when allowed to trade. Almost maintained y-o-y cash (€18m) at year end, facilitated by a €14m placing in H1, has since been supplemented with a €30m five-year debt facility.

Valuation: We’ll ‘meet the world’ again

With governments’ travel guidance so fluid in view of COVID-19 persistence, Hostelworld’s 2021 expectation of ‘significantly lower net bookings than 2019’ seems reasonable and reflected in consensus estimates. However, key platform modernisation continues undimmed, as does its ‘Meeting the World’ vision to create a global experiential travel network from its large and engaged customer base.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EBITDA
(€m)

EPS
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

80.7

20.5

15.2

6.3

5.8

7.1

12/20

15.4

(17.3)

(20.8)

1.0*

N/A

1.1

12/21e

22.9

(14.1)

(16.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/22e

59.7

8.2

1.0

0.0

88.4

N/A

Source: Refinitiv. Note: *Cash dividends suspended owing to COVID-19 uncertainty, so paid by way of bonus shares equating to one cent.

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Healthcare

CASI Pharmaceuticals — Continuing to advance and expand the pipeline

The year 2020 was one of challenges for CASI, as it was for the rest of the world, but the company was able to continue to advance the commercialization of Evomela and jumpstart its clinical development engine. CASI is continuing to execute on its strategy of opportunistically in-licensing assets and the recent trend has been to earlier-stage assets such as its latest acquisition, the Chinese rights to the Phase I broad spectrum anti-cancer drug CB-5339, announced in March.

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free