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Research: Healthcare
Photocure has announced results for Q118 with 14% revenue growth compared to Q117. Revenue growth was particularly strong in the US market where Hexvix/Cysview sales increased 27% (up 36% on a constant-currency basis). Importantly, the company also announced that it has initiated the commercial launch of Hexvix/Cysview in the surveillance setting, which greatly expands the addressable market. There are an estimated 1.2–1.4m surveillance-related procedures per year, compared to 325,000 transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT) procedures, where the company has historically been focused.
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Photocure |
Solid growth in the US |
Financial update |
Pharma & biotech |
4 June 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Photocure is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Photocure has announced results for Q118 with 14% revenue growth compared to Q117. Revenue growth was particularly strong in the US market where Hexvix/Cysview sales increased 27% (up 36% on a constant-currency basis). Importantly, the company also announced that it has initiated the commercial launch of Hexvix/Cysview in the surveillance setting, which greatly expands the addressable market. There are an estimated 1.2–1.4m surveillance-related procedures per year, compared to 325,000 transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT) procedures, where the company has historically been focused.
Year end |
Revenue (NOKm) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
143.6 |
12.8 |
1.64 |
0.0 |
17.0 |
N/A |
12/17 |
150.9 |
(41.6) |
(1.61) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
200.9 |
(18.3) |
(0.43) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19e |
288.8 |
56.0 |
1.86 |
0.0 |
14.9 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Hexvix/Cysview launch in the surveillance setting
In mid-February, the FDA approved an expanded indication for Cysview, which includes the surveillance setting. Hexvix/Cysview sales may have significant upside if the product successfully expands into the US bladder cancer surveillance market, which has an estimated 1.2–1.4m procedures per year, compared to its current market of 325,000 TURBT procedures. The commercial launch officially began in mid-May so there should be a small impact on Q2 revenues and a greater impact in the second half of the year.
US continues to be the growth engine
Q118 sales in the US increased 27% (up 36% on a constant-currency basis) to NOK12.7m, driven mainly by volume growth (which was helped by improved reimbursement) and price increases. Unit sales increased 29% and nine additional units were installed over the quarter (largest quarterly increase since the launch), bringing the total installed base to 113.
Partner revenue remains an issue
Partner revenue fell 5% to NOK15.8m and was down 12% on a constant-currency basis. France was a major driver due to a loss of reimbursement in Q217 and was responsible for about half of the decline. Germany also saw slowing sales.
Valuation: NOK880m or NOK41 per share
We have adjusted our valuation to NOK880m or NOK41 per basic share from NOK898m or NOK42 per basic share mainly due to a lower cash balance. We are maintaining our revenue estimates for 2018 and 2019 and expect to update them as we have more information on the progress of the surveillance market launch. With NOK111m in cash, Photocure should have enough capital to meet its needs.
Q118 results
Photocure reported revenue of NOK41.6m for Q118, representing 14% growth over Q117 and 3% growth sequentially. Hexvix/Cysview revenues were up 11%. Sales in the US continued to be strong, up 27% compared to Q117. Although there was a negative currency impact, on a constant-currency basis, sales were up 36% compared to last year. Sequentially, sales in the US were up 25% for the quarter. End-user unit sales were also strong, growing 29% for the quarter compared to last year, driven by a record quarterly increase in the number of permanent blue light cystoscopes installed (currently 113, up from 104 at the beginning of the year).
Revenues in the Nordic region increased 24% to NOK12.1m, although this was driven by increased inventory at distributors, exchange rates and price increases rather than organic growth. On a constant-currency basis, revenue increased 19% in the quarter. Also, on a sequential basis, revenues fell 6%. End-user unit sales in the region were down 10% compared to Q117 mainly due to Denmark and large deliveries to hospitals at the end of 2017. Results in partnered areas decreased 5% in the quarter to NOK15.8m and were down 3% on a sequential-quarter basis. Approximately half of the decline from last year was due to weak sales in France because of a loss of reimbursement in Q217. In addition, growth in the relatively new markets of Australia and Canada was hampered by the delayed placement of scopes and reimbursement issues. It is important to note that Q118 revenue was positively affected by an NOK1.7m accounting adjustment related to IFRS 15 as well as a positive foreign exchange impact (on a constant-currency basis, revenue was down 12% compared to Q117). End-user unit sales decreased 5% for the quarter so despite a lot of moving parts such as foreign exchange and accounting changes, the decline in sales matches the decline in units.
SG&A for Q1 was slightly lower than the last quarter, at NOK39.8m (compared to NOK41.4m in Q4) although is still up 19% compared to the same quarter last year. SG&A will likely increase over FY18 due in large part to an increase in the number of salespeople in the US and the surveillance market launch. R&D expenses were down considerably to NOK2.5m from NOK5.6m in Q417 as the regulatory work surrounding FDA approval for the surveillance market is behind them.
Valuation
We have adjusted our valuation to NOK880m or NOK41 per basic share from NOK898m or NOK42 per basic share mainly due to a lower cash balance. We may update the valuation once the company provides an update on the sales trajectory in the recently launched surveillance setting as well as changes to spending associated with increased marketing.
Exhibit 1: Valuation of Photocure
Product |
Main indication |
Status |
Probability of commercialisation |
Launch year |
Peak sales (NOKm) |
Patent protection |
Economics |
rNPV (NOKm) |
Hexvix/Cysview |
Bladder cancer detection |
Market |
100% |
Launched |
344 |
2019-20 |
Fully owned - US and Nordics, Partner with Ipsen in EU (35% royalty) |
542 |
Cevira |
HPV-related diseases |
Phase III |
20% |
2021 |
2,218 |
2030 |
17.5% |
121 |
Visonac |
Acne |
Phase III |
20% |
2021 |
2,091 |
2028 |
17.5% |
106 |
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
769 |
Cash and cash equivalents (Q417) |
111 |
|||||||
Total firm value |
880 |
|||||||
Total basic shares (m) |
21.6 |
|||||||
Value per basic share (NOK) |
41 |
|||||||
Options (Q118, m) |
0.0 |
|||||||
Total number of shares (m) |
21.6 |
|||||||
Diluted value per share (NOK) |
41 |
|||||||
Source: Edison Investment Research
Financials
We have maintained our 2018 revenue estimates although we will update them once we receive additional information on the surveillance market launch. We have lowered our R&D estimates by NOK13.7m for 2018 and NOK14.3m for 2019 as the company reported much lower R&D expenses than expected. Much of the spending in this category appears to be behind it following the surveillance market approval. We have also reduced our SG&A estimates for 2018 by NOK1.8m and for 2019 by NOK1.9m due to slightly lower SG&A expenses in Q118 compared to Q417. We continue to expect SG&A to grow in 2018 due to the company’s increased investment in the US market. The company ended Q118 with NOK111m in cash, and we do not expect it to require further financing as we continue to expect profitability in 2019.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
NOK000s |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
143,627 |
150,911 |
200,873 |
288,758 |
Cost of Sales |
(9,337) |
(12,011) |
(14,513) |
(20,266) |
||
Gross Profit |
134,291 |
138,900 |
186,360 |
268,493 |
||
Sales, General and Administrative Expenses |
(124,647) |
(149,098) |
(184,537) |
(191,919) |
||
Research and Development Expense |
(17,652) |
(22,896) |
(10,078) |
(10,481) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(8,008) |
(33,094) |
(8,255) |
66,093 |
Operating profit (before amort. and except) |
(15,861) |
(45,202) |
(18,668) |
55,680 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(15,861) |
(45,202) |
(18,668) |
55,680 |
||
Net Interest |
28,640 |
3,622 |
328 |
341 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
12,779 |
(41,580) |
(18,340) |
56,021 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
12,779 |
(41,580) |
(18,340) |
56,021 |
Tax |
22,530 |
6,883 |
9,002 |
(15,126) |
||
Deferred tax |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
(0) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
35,309 |
(34,697) |
(9,338) |
40,895 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
35,309 |
(34,697) |
(9,338) |
40,895 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
21.5 |
21.6 |
21.8 |
22.0 |
||
EPS - normalised (ore) |
|
|
164 |
(161) |
(43) |
186 |
EPS - FRS 3 (ore) |
|
|
164 |
(161) |
(43) |
186 |
Dividend per share (ore) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
74,070 |
87,486 |
84,393 |
74,632 |
Intangible Assets |
26,390 |
33,315 |
24,062 |
14,038 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,660 |
1,268 |
1,476 |
1,739 |
||
Other |
46,020 |
52,903 |
58,855 |
58,855 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
212,268 |
175,613 |
160,548 |
211,872 |
Stocks |
17,955 |
19,552 |
21,229 |
33,335 |
||
Debtors |
12,323 |
14,573 |
20,527 |
28,876 |
||
Cash |
169,239 |
129,368 |
105,616 |
136,485 |
||
Other |
12,750 |
12,119 |
13,176 |
13,176 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(30,637) |
(40,267) |
(41,407) |
(41,407) |
Creditors |
(30,637) |
(40,267) |
(41,407) |
(41,407) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(3,758) |
(4,752) |
(4,989) |
(5,488) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(3,758) |
(4,752) |
(4,989) |
(5,488) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
251,943 |
218,079 |
198,545 |
239,609 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
19,193 |
(23,593) |
(23,064) |
31,521 |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
(21,715) |
(18,588) |
(2,028) |
(2,046) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
33,213 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
2,394 |
2,310 |
1,340 |
1,394 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
33,085 |
(39,871) |
(23,752) |
30,869 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(134,026) |
(169,239) |
(129,368) |
(105,616) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exchange rate movements |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
2129 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(169,239) |
(129,368) |
(105,616) |
(136,485) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Energy & Resources
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