Last close As at 05/08/2026
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▲ −0.03 (−0.63%)
Market capitalisation
NZD499m
Research: Healthcare
AFT Pharmaceuticals recently reported its FY20 results. Operating revenue grew by a strong 24.0% year-on-year to NZ$105.6m as there was at least double-digit growth across all regional segments and triple-digit growth in South-East Asia. Importantly, the company reported operating profit of NZ$21.2m (including a NZ$9.8m non-recurring gain), up from a reported NZ$6.1m the year before, and is guiding for operating profit of NZ$14–18m in FY21.
Written by
AFT Pharmaceuticals |
Solid FY20 results |
Financial update |
Pharma & biotech |
21 May 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
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AFT Pharmaceuticals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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AFT Pharmaceuticals recently reported its FY20 results. Operating revenue grew by a strong 24.0% year-on-year to NZ$105.6m as there was at least double-digit growth across all regional segments and triple-digit growth in South-East Asia. Importantly, the company reported operating profit of NZ$21.2m (including a NZ$9.8m non-recurring gain), up from a reported NZ$6.1m the year before, and is guiding for operating profit of NZ$14–18m in FY21.
Year end |
Revenue (NZ$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/19 |
85.1 |
(2.5) |
(0.03) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
03/20 |
105.6 |
2.8 |
0.02 |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
03/21e |
125.1 |
15.5 |
0.15 |
0.0 |
31.1 |
N/A |
03/22e |
146.5 |
27.2 |
0.23 |
0.0 |
20.3 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Strong growth in Australia and New Zealand
Revenue in Australia was up 22.1% in FY20 compared to the prior year. The over-the-counter (OTC) channel grew by 25% thanks to Maxigesic as well as AFT’s eye care products and natural medicines. New Zealand grew by 12.4% in FY20. This compares very favourably to the 1.1% decline (5.4% growth after adjusting for divested products) in FY19. The OTC channel was the main driver, which grew by 24% thanks to the pain, eyecare, natural medicine and allergy categories.
Maxigesic launched in 28 countries
Maxigesic is now sold and launched in 28 countries, up from 20 in the prior year thanks in part to launches in Spain, Portugal and the Nordics. Launch orders for an additional 10 countries were delayed due to a temporary paracetamol export ban announced by the Indian government. Maxigesic is licensed in more than 125 countries and registered in 44 countries. AFT expects Maxigesic to be sold in around 125 countries by the end of FY22.
Limited negative impact from COVID-19
Apart from some clinical trial delays and the temporary issue with paracetamol product supply, AFT has seen a limited negative impact from COVID-19. If anything, it may be benefiting as AFT’s sales of the Maxigesic family of products, vitamins and hospital antibiotics have all increased. Additionally, the company has commented that the first month of FY21 (April 2020) was significantly ahead of the prior year.
Valuation: NZ$596m or NZ$5.94 per share
We are increasing our valuation to NZ$596m or NZ$5.94 per share, from NZ$539m or NZ$5.53 per share, mainly due to rolling forward our NPV and increased revenue estimates as sales were stronger than expected. This was partially offset by lower near-term gross margin. The company reported NZ$6.1m in cash and NZ$43.2m in debt at the end of FY20. We believe the company will be able to pay down the debt from operating cash flow and is not in need of additional financing.
FY20: A growth year
AFT has reported revenue of NZ$105.6m for FY20, the period ending 31 March 2020. This represents a 24.0% increase over FY19 as all four regions posted solid growth. Revenue in Australia was up 22.1% in FY20 compared to the prior year, to NZ$61.4m. The OTC channel, which represents 63.5% of revenue for Australia, grew 25% thanks to Maxigesic as well as AFT’s eye care products and natural medicines. The hospital channel grew by 16% and was helped by the launch of new hospital products (such as the antibiotic Piptaz (Piperacillin/tazobactam)). The prescription channel grew 23% to NZ$6.3m with the introduction of a new product. Operating profits rose to NZ$7.3m in Australia from NZ$5.3m last year.
New Zealand grew 12.4% in FY20 to NZ$30.1m. This compares favourably to the 1.1% decline (5.4% growth after adjusting for divested products) in FY19. The OTC channel was the main driver, which grew 24% to NZ$17.4m thanks to the pain, eyecare, natural medicine and allergy categories. Growth was also helped by newly launched digestive health products. Maxigesic sales (included in the OTC channel in New Zealand) are likely to see an additional boost in FY21 as codeine-containing products (a major competitor in the pain area) are expected to move from OTC to prescription only. For the other product categories, the hospital channel declined by 8% to NZ$4.0m, while the prescription channel grew 2% to NZ$8.7m. Operating profit (excluding head office costs) increased from NZ$5.1m to NZ$5.3m.
South-East Asia grew well, with revenue up by 130% to NZ$4.9m from NZ$2.1m in the prior year. The hospital channel was particularly strong and grew 175% thanks to two new products in Singapore and Malaysia. Operating profit was NZ$0.1m, up from a NZ$0.3m loss in FY19.
Exhibit 1: FY20 results by segment
NZ$000s |
Revenues (2020) |
Revenues (2019) |
Operating profit before tax (2020) |
Operating profit before tax (2019) |
Australia |
61,428 |
50,304 |
7,278 |
5,321 |
New Zealand |
30,108 |
26,796 |
(205)* |
537 |
Asia |
4,930 |
2,142 |
93 |
(343) |
Rest of world |
9,131 |
5,885 |
14,040** |
601 |
Total |
105,597 |
85,127 |
21,206 |
6,116 |
Source: AFT Pharmaceuticals. Note: *New Zealand profit before tax includes head office expenses; operating profit without these expenses were NZ$5.3m. **Rest of world profit before tax includes a non-recurring gain of NZ$9.8m, without this gain profit before tax for this region would have been NZ$4.3m.
Rest of world revenues, which are driven mainly by Maxigesic sales, grew 55% to NZ$9.1m. Maxigesic is now sold and launched in 28 countries, up from 20 the prior year. FY20 launches of note include Spain and Portugal and the Nordic countries, with launches pending in Belgium, Luxembourg, France and Germany. Around NZ$1m in launch orders for 10 countries were delayed due to a COVID-19-related Indian government restriction on the export of products containing paracetamol. This export ban has since been lifted and the launch orders will count towards FY21. AFT expects Maxigesic to be sold in around 125 countries by the end of FY22. Maxigesic IV is progressing; it had licensing agreements in 80 countries and registration in three (Australia, New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates) by the end of FY20 and has had an additional 18 since (including the EU). A study that was required for approval by the US FDA has been delayed due to COVID-19 related issues but is expected to be completed by the end of July, with a filing in the US by the end of the calendar year.
Exhibit 2: Maxigesic product country totals by status
Maxigesic tablets |
Maxigesic IV |
Maxigesic oral solution |
||||
2020 |
2019 |
2020 |
2019 |
2020 |
2019 |
|
Licensed |
125+ |
125+ |
80 |
68 |
122 |
122 |
Registered |
44 |
42 |
3 |
|||
Sold in |
28 |
20 |
||||
Source: AFT Pharmaceuticals
With regards to NasoSURF, there have been some programme delays related to COVID-19 as production and development of the product is based in China. A Class IIa medical device filing with the FDA is expected in FY21. The 120-patient Pascomer Phase II/III clinical study has begun although there have been delays in recruitment due to COVID-19. Enrolment is restarting in May.
Valuation
We are increasing our valuation to NZ$596m or NZ$5.94 per share from NZ$539m or NZ$5.53 per share, mainly due to rolling forward our NPV and increased revenue estimates as sales were stronger than expected. This was partially offset by lower near-term gross margins.
Exhibit 3: DCF sensitivity table (NZ$/share)
Terminal EBIT margin |
|||||||||||
Terminal revenue growth |
30.00% |
34.00% |
36.0% |
40.0% |
45.0% |
||||||
-2% |
3.99 |
4.33 |
4.49 |
4.83 |
5.25 |
||||||
-1% |
4.20 |
4.57 |
4.76 |
5.12 |
5.58 |
||||||
0% |
4.46 |
4.87 |
5.07 |
5.48 |
5.98 |
||||||
1% |
4.78 |
5.23 |
5.46 |
5.90 |
6.47 |
||||||
2% |
5.18 |
5.68 |
5.94 |
6.44 |
7.07 |
||||||
3% |
5.69 |
6.26 |
6.55 |
7.13 |
7.85 |
||||||
4% |
6.36 |
7.04 |
7.37 |
8.05 |
8.89 |
||||||
5% |
7.31 |
8.12 |
8.52 |
9.33 |
10.34 |
||||||
Source: Edison Investment Research
Financials
We have increased our revenue estimates for FY21 to NZ$125.1m from NZ$120.8m previously. We do not expect COVID-19 to have a negative impact on revenues; it may have a positive effect as AFT’s sales of the Maxigesic family of products, vitamins and hospital antibiotics have all increased due to the pandemic. AFT has also introduced the Crystawash hand sanitiser to take advantage of emerging consumer behaviour. Additionally, the company has commented that the first month of FY21 (April 2020) was significantly ahead of the prior year.
We have reduced our FY21 gross margin estimate from 51.9% to 48.8% as it fell in FY20 compared to FY19 (from 47.8% to 45.7%). However, we continue to expect it to increase over the long term as high margin Maxigesic royalties and licence payments in the rest of the world become bigger components of the total income statement. We have also made small adjustments to SG&A and R&D for FY21. We have increased SG&A by NZ$1.8m and decreased R&D by $0.6m. After these changes, our FY21 PBT estimate is NZ$15.5m compared to NZ$16.4m previously. We are also introducing FY22 estimates, which feature revenues of NZ$146.5m (up 17.1% compared to FY20) and PBT of NZ$27.2m.
Exhibit 4: Edison forecast changes
2021e |
2022e |
||
Old |
New |
New |
|
Revenue (NZ$m) |
120.8 |
125.1 |
146.5 |
PBT, normalised (NZ$m) |
16.4 |
15.5 |
27.2 |
EPS, normalised (NZ$) |
0.17 |
0.15 |
0.23 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
AFT reported NZ$6.1m in cash and NZ$43.2m in debt at the end of FY20. AFT refinanced its debt recently, replacing a 13.5% facility from Capital Royalty Group with one from the Bank of New Zealand with approximately 8.5% interest, allowing the company to save on interest costs. NZ$2m in principal will be due in the first year and NZ$10m total will be due over three years. We believe AFT will be able to pay down the debt from operating cash flow and is not in need of additional financing.
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
NZ$000 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
|||
March |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
|||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
|
85,127 |
105,597 |
125,117 |
146,483 |
Cost of Sales |
(44,397) |
(57,332) |
(64,045) |
(69,711) |
|||
Gross Profit |
40,730 |
48,265 |
61,073 |
76,772 |
|||
EBITDA |
|
|
|
5,797 |
10,322 |
18,152 |
29,531 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
|
5,912 |
11,136 |
18,966 |
30,345 |
Intangible Amortisation |
204 |
286 |
286 |
286 |
|||
Exceptionals |
0 |
9,784 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
1,716 |
0 |
478 |
502 |
|||
Operating Profit |
7,832 |
21,206 |
19,729 |
31,132 |
|||
Net Interest |
(8,375) |
(8,329) |
(3,494) |
(3,155) |
|||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
|
(2,463) |
2,807 |
15,472 |
27,190 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
|
(2,259) |
12,877 |
16,236 |
27,978 |
Tax |
(168) |
(185) |
0 |
(3,847) |
|||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(2,631) |
2,622 |
15,472 |
23,343 |
|||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(2,427) |
12,692 |
16,236 |
24,131 |
|||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
97.3 |
97.3 |
100.5 |
100.5 |
|||
EPS - normalised ($) |
|
|
|
(0.03) |
0.02 |
0.15 |
0.23 |
EPS - (reported) (NZ$) |
|
|
|
(0.03) |
0.12 |
0.16 |
0.24 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|||
Gross Margin (%) |
47.8 |
45.7 |
48.8 |
52.4 |
|||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
6.8 |
9.8 |
14.5 |
20.2 |
|||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
6.9 |
10.5 |
15.2 |
20.7 |
|||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
|
12,334 |
31,716 |
33,866 |
36,059 |
Intangible Assets |
8,239 |
26,984 |
29,047 |
31,110 |
|||
Tangible Assets |
357 |
315 |
402 |
533 |
|||
Investments |
3,738 |
4,417 |
4,417 |
4,417 |
|||
Current Assets |
|
|
|
51,261 |
55,336 |
65,969 |
84,897 |
Stocks |
25,158 |
22,734 |
25,007 |
27,508 |
|||
Debtors |
19,187 |
25,969 |
23,372 |
22,856 |
|||
Cash |
6,916 |
6,119 |
17,076 |
34,018 |
|||
Other |
0 |
514 |
514 |
514 |
|||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
(58,504) |
(25,102) |
(20,994) |
(22,480) |
Creditors |
(16,368) |
(22,993) |
(20,994) |
(22,480) |
|||
Short term borrowings |
(41,750) |
(2,000) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
(386) |
(109) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
|
0 |
(44,695) |
(44,695) |
(40,695) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
(41,200) |
(41,200) |
(37,200) |
|||
Other long term liabilities |
0 |
(3,495) |
(3,495) |
(3,495) |
|||
Net Assets |
|
|
|
5,091 |
17,255 |
34,147 |
57,781 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
|
9,610 |
21,999 |
19,187 |
31,237 |
Net Interest |
(8,375) |
(6,936) |
(3,494) |
(3,155) |
|||
Tax |
(168) |
(185) |
0 |
(3,847) |
|||
Capex |
(3,465) |
(6,562) |
(3,250) |
(3,293) |
|||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(1,419) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Financing |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Dividends |
(134) |
(566) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Net Cash Flow |
(3,951) |
7,753 |
12,443 |
20,943 |
|||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
|
23,708 |
34,834 |
37,081 |
24,124 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
(7,175) |
(10,000) |
(0) |
0 |
|||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
|
34,834 |
37,081 |
24,638 |
3,182 |
Source: company reports, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Industrials
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