Following the acquisitions of 8Ball, Netboost Media and the Tarco assets in August 2016, reported net gaming revenues grew 104% to £44m. This represents a pro forma NGR growth of 21%. Like-for-like real money gaming revenues increased 30% to £39.3m, driven by the scale of the enlarged group, multi-brand strategy and significant improvements in player engagement and monetisation.
Offsetting the positive trends in RMG, social gaming has continued to weaken, with a 24% decline in revenues and, as a result of the limited visibility, management has taken a £10.2m impairment against its InfiApps assets.
In line with our forecasts, adjusted EBITDA increased by 20% to £9.6m vs a pro forma £8.0m, representing a constant 22% EBITDA margin. We expect underlying margin expansion going forward, although this will be offset by expected increases in the point of consumption (POC) tax.
Post period, management has established Stride Together, a new B2B vertical to license its proprietary platform to gaming operators, media partners and retailers in the UK and abroad. Its first JV with Aspers Group is due to launch in Q417. At this stage, we have not included any potential upside into our forecasts and we expect a full update at the FY results.
Q317 trading in RMG has been robust and management has reiterated its outlook for the full year.
Real money gaming: 89% of revenues
Stride reported strong organic growth in its RMG vertical, with revenues from its proprietary platform increasing 55% to £23.8m. Non-proprietary platform RMG revenues (from acquired assets) grew 4% to £15.5m and we anticipate further growth once the earnout period ends.
RMG-funded players (active players, depositing within the last three months) were up 21% to 162,000 (vs a pro forma 2016 134,000) and yield per player was up 8.5% to £127, demonstrating a continued improvement in engagement and monetisation of players. Mobile and touch devices now represent 58% of the group’s total gross gaming revenue.
The acquisitions last year (8Ball, Netboost Media and Tarco) have doubled Stride’s market share in the UK online bingo market, from 5% to 10%. The resulting business now has significant scale and liquidity and its multi-brand strategy will enable it to target broader demographics and cross-sell to lapsing players. Stride has taken advantage of opportunities presented by the introduction of the UK POC gaming tax in 2014, which has squeezed smaller operators and left larger multi-product operators focusing more on sports, casino and M&A, rather than bingo. We expect this trend to continue with the expected extension of POC tax to “free bets” from August 2017.
The earnout periods end in August 2017 (8Ball) and December 2017 (Tarco) and, post earnout, Stride believes it can achieve £2.5m of cost synergies and £3m of revenue synergies. Revenue synergies include increasing LTV, yield and cash hold, and cross-selling lapsing Tarco/8Ball players onto its higher-margin proprietary platform.
Social gaming: 11% of revenues
Stride entered the social gaming market with the acquisition of Israel-based InfiApps in July 2015. Founded in 2012, InfiApps diversified Stride both by product and geography, with approximately 65% of revenues derived from the US. Management has previously discussed the challenges of the social gaming market and trading in H117 has continued to be disappointing. H117 revenues from this vertical declined by 24% to £4.7m, as management has focused more on profitability than revenues. Given the high acquisition costs in social gaming, marketing spend has been diverted to higher-margin RMG for the short term.
As a result of the uncertain outlook for this vertical, Stride has prudently recognised an impairment of £10.2m for the business. This compares to a total acquisition cost of c £19m.
We anticipate that Stride will take greater control over the social gaming vertical at the end of the earnout period and the board will undertake a review of this business in due course. As detailed in the table below, our forecasts assume a limited contribution to group EBITDA over the next two years.
Exhibit 1: Summary divisional forecasts
Year end 31 August (£m) |
FY15 |
FY16 |
FY17e |
FY18e |
FY19e |
Real money gaming (RMG) |
26.7 |
35.0 |
80.8 |
90.5 |
101.1 |
Social gaming |
1.1 |
12.8 |
8.0 |
10.2 |
11.4 |
Net gaming revenue (NGR) |
27.8 |
47.8 |
88.8 |
100.7 |
112.5 |
COS (POC gaming tax) |
(2.8) |
(5.4) |
(11.5) |
(16.3) |
(18.7) |
% of RMG NGR |
10.3% |
15.4% |
14.2% |
18.0% |
18.5% |
Gross profit |
25.1 |
42.4 |
77.3 |
84.4 |
93.8 |
Marketing cost |
(7.0) |
(10.9) |
(21.8) |
(24.7) |
(27.6) |
Marketing % |
25.2% |
22.8% |
24.5% |
24.5% |
24.5% |
Other distribution costs |
(2.9) |
(7.8) |
(16.9) |
(19.5) |
(21.0) |
Other distribution % |
10.4% |
16.2% |
19.1% |
19.3% |
18.7% |
Admin costs |
(7.8) |
(11.4) |
(19.1) |
(21.7) |
(22.5) |
Admin % |
28.2% |
23.9% |
21.5% |
21.6% |
20.0% |
Adjusted EBITDA |
7.3 |
12.3 |
19.5 |
18.5 |
22.7 |
RMG EBITDA |
7.0 |
8.2 |
19.0 |
17.8 |
21.0 |
Social gaming EBITDA |
0.3 |
4.1 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
Adjusted EBITDA margin |
26.3% |
25.8% |
21.9% |
18.4% |
20.2% |
RMG EBITDA margin % |
26.4% |
23.5% |
23.5% |
19.7% |
20.8% |
Social gaming EBITDA margin % |
24.3% |
32.0% |
6.0% |
7.0% |
15.0% |
Source: Stride Gaming accounts, Edison Investment Research.
The strength in RMG has offset the weakness in social gaming and our 2017e headline revenue and EBITDA figures are unchanged. Our 2017e PBT forecast is lowered from £18.3m to £17.5m, due to slightly higher amortisation and finance expenses in H1. Our 2017e RMG revenues increase from £78.3m to £80.8m and social gaming revenues decline from £10.5m to £8.0m.
Given the uncertainty for the social gaming market, we have forecast limited EBITDA contribution from this vertical and our group 2018 EBITDA declines from £21.0m to £18.5m. For 2018, the underlying margin expansion in RMG is offset by the expected increase in gaming tax.
We introduce 2019 forecasts, which continue the trend of double-digit revenue growth in RMG and underlying margin expansion, as the business keeps scaling.
Operating cash flow in H117 was £4.2m vs £4.8m in the previous year. While the business should revert to an underlying cash conversion rate of c 90%, the H1 cash flow was affected by one-off working capital movements from the acquisitions in August 2016. Our forecasts include cash earnout payments of £5m for 2017 (relating to InfiApps) and £18.4m in FY18 (relating to Tarco and 8Ball). We estimate a net cash position of £13.1m in 2017 and £16.5m in 2018.
Exhibit 2: Edison estimate changes
|
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA (£m) |
EPS (p) |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
08/17e |
88.8 |
88.8 |
0.0 |
19.5 |
19.5 |
0.0 |
22.5 |
21.4 |
(4.9) |
08/18e |
103.3 |
100.7 |
(2.5) |
21.0 |
18.5 |
(11.9) |
23.6 |
19.7 |
(16.5) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
|
|
£m |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
2019e |
August |
|
|
UK GAAP |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
8.5 |
27.8 |
47.8 |
88.8 |
100.7 |
112.5 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
0.0 |
(2.8) |
(5.4) |
(11.5) |
(16.3) |
(18.7) |
Gross Profit |
|
|
8.5 |
25.1 |
42.4 |
77.3 |
84.4 |
93.8 |
EBITDA |
|
|
1.2 |
7.3 |
12.3 |
19.5 |
18.5 |
22.7 |
Operating Profit (norm) |
|
|
1.2 |
7.3 |
12.0 |
18.0 |
16.8 |
20.5 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
|
(0.3) |
(2.5) |
(4.2) |
(5.1) |
(5.0) |
(5.0) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
(0.1) |
(3.3) |
(5.1) |
(19.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Share based payments |
|
|
0.0 |
(1.0) |
(1.9) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
Operating Profit |
|
|
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
(7.9) |
10.5 |
14.2 |
Net Interest |
|
|
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.7) |
(0.6) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
1.2 |
7.2 |
11.3 |
17.5 |
16.3 |
20.0 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
(8.5) |
10.0 |
13.7 |
Tax (reported) |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
(0.5) |
0.1 |
(1.3) |
(1.6) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
1.2 |
6.2 |
10.9 |
16.2 |
15.0 |
18.4 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
0.8 |
0.4 |
(0.4) |
(8.4) |
8.7 |
12.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
31.2 |
43.8 |
51.5 |
67.4 |
70.0 |
71.5 |
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
0.0 |
14.2 |
21.2 |
24.1 |
21.4 |
25.7 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
4.0 |
14.0 |
20.3 |
21.4 |
19.7 |
24.0 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
0.0 |
0.9 |
(0.8) |
(12.4) |
12.5 |
16.9 |
Dividend per share (p) |
|
|
0.00 |
0.00 |
2.50 |
2.80 |
3.00 |
4.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
100.0 |
90.1 |
88.7 |
87.1 |
83.8 |
83.4 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
14.6 |
26.3 |
25.8 |
21.9 |
18.4 |
20.2 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
|
14.6 |
26.1 |
25.0 |
20.3 |
16.7 |
18.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
0.1 |
37.1 |
78.7 |
64.0 |
59.7 |
54.7 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
0.0 |
36.4 |
73.6 |
58.6 |
53.9 |
48.6 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
Investments |
|
|
0.1 |
0.5 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
Current Assets |
|
|
5.7 |
11.7 |
27.1 |
29.5 |
33.7 |
49.6 |
Stocks |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Debtors |
|
|
5.7 |
4.2 |
5.8 |
6.4 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
Cash |
|
|
0.0 |
7.4 |
21.1 |
23.1 |
26.7 |
42.6 |
Other |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(1.2) |
(7.7) |
(26.1) |
(20.6) |
(19.7) |
(19.7) |
Creditors |
|
|
(0.8) |
(5.2) |
(16.3) |
(18.6) |
(17.5) |
(17.5) |
Player balances |
|
|
(0.4) |
(1.4) |
(1.8) |
(2.0) |
(2.2) |
(2.2) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
(1.1) |
(8.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
0.0 |
(10.2) |
(10.5) |
(14.0) |
(10.5) |
(10.5) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
(8.0) |
0.0 |
(8.0) |
(8.0) |
(8.0) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
0.0 |
(2.2) |
(10.5) |
(6.0) |
(2.5) |
(2.5) |
Net Assets |
|
|
4.6 |
30.8 |
69.2 |
58.8 |
63.2 |
74.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
0.0 |
4.6 |
14.4 |
11.5 |
17.7 |
21.8 |
Net Interest |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.6) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
Tax |
|
|
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.7) |
(0.5) |
(1.3) |
(1.6) |
Capex |
|
|
0.0 |
(0.6) |
(1.9) |
(2.1) |
(2.3) |
(2.3) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
0.0 |
(18.1) |
(22.2) |
(5.0) |
(18.4) |
0.0 |
Financing |
|
|
0.0 |
10.4 |
25.9 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
(0.0) |
Dividends |
|
|
0.0 |
(3.0) |
(0.6) |
(1.8) |
(2.0) |
(2.1) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
0.0 |
(6.6) |
14.4 |
1.8 |
3.4 |
15.4 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
3.1 |
(11.3) |
(13.1) |
(16.5) |
Moving in player balances |
|
|
0.0 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other adjustments |
|
|
0.0 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
0.0 |
3.1 |
(11.3) |
(13.1) |
(16.5) |
(31.9) |
Source: Stride Gaming accounts, Edison Investment Research
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Stride Gaming and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Stride Gaming and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent. |
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New York +1 646 653 7026 245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor 10167, New York US |
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Schumannstrasse 34b 60325 Frankfurt Germany |
London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 280 High Holborn London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom |
New York +1 646 653 7026 245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor 10167, New York US |
Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342 Level 12, Office 1205 95 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
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